Gil in Mechanicsville, VA
As we trudge into winter, Braves fans everywhere, but most particularly here in Stuffville, are hoping that the hot stove will heat up during MLB’s winter meetings in California this week. The Braves spent $25 million dollars on two players, 3rd baseman Josh Donaldson and catcher Brian McCann, but really only added to their bench with the signings. That is, it allows the Braves to move erstwhile 3rd baseman Johan Camargo to serve as a super sub, the role most in the Braves front office envisioned for the young Panamanian to begin with.
Donaldson inked a one year deal with the Braves which allows the Braves to further evaluate their now number one prospect, Austin Riley, as their future 3rd baseman. Riley who is only 21 years old has shown the propensity for big power and has steadily improved his defense since his being drafted 41st over all in 2015 by the Braves. There is no way to know if Riley will indeed ever play in the majors as a Brave or if he will be included as part of a package for a number one starter or possibly for Marlins catcher J T Realmuto.
So, with that in mind, we should bear in mind the Braves primary needs going into the off season were: A) A front line ace to lead the young Braves pitching staff; B) An outfielder to replace free agent Nick Markakis; C) Bullpen help (either a closer or set up man); and D) Bench help/ power bat to protect Freddie Freeman in the line up.
So far, the Braves have made several moves around the periphery with McCann, who while it is a feel good story in his return to Atlanta, is questionable as to how much he can add to the Braves line up as a catcher who can catch a fair number of games in tandem with Tyler Flowers.
The Nationals made a major acquisition in signing free agent pitcher Patrick Corbin who will be slotted as the number three starter in their solid starting pitching staff and the Mets made a major trade to acquire shut down closer Edwin Diaz and aging 2nd baseman Robinson Cano from the Seattle Mariners. There should be no question that both moves have made the NL East a much stronger division. To be sure, the path to winning the divisional pennant will be a tough one foe every team.
So, as we wait and watch for the Braves to make the moves necessary to shore up the team and plot a course to repeat as NL east champions, we all should remember the games still have to be played and while it is nice to compare stats, we can point to the Nationals epic fail in 2018 despite having the best team on paper by far.
Braves & Stuff 
Thanks, Chief! We always appreciate your efforts for us!
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Thank you CL for putting the finishing touches on this piece. Now, if only we can get some real news to opine upon.
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Don’t expect the Braves to trade Julio and all 11 MM of his contract.
I have to respectfully disagree here.
If 36 year old JA Happ can get e new 2 year deal (with a 3rd year option) for about $16M per year, and 35 year old Charlie Morton can get 2 years at $15M per year, Julio on a short 1 year commitment at just $11M is a bargain.
Want a comparable? Tanner Roark just got dealt to the Reds for a prospect because the Nats wanted to free up the projected $9.8M he’s expected to get in arb. The Reds happily took that on. Roark is not nearly the pitcher Julio is.
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Happ is getting $17M per year.
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Excellent work Mr Gil!!!!
+ really needed another lead….even at work it was getting slow….more than 700 posts!
Yeah, it’s weird looking at Julio T’s stats….most teams would love a soon to be 28 Year old with a career 3.64 ERA. and we all can’t wait to get rid of him….
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Yeah, it’s weird looking at Julio T’s stats….most teams would love a soon to be 28 Year old with a career 3.64 ERA. and we all can’t wait to get rid of him
I think for the Braves it’s more a function of his splits at STP.
In 2017, STP’s first year, his home ERA in 17 games (93.2 IP) was 5.86, as opposed to 3.14 on the road in 15 games (94.2 IP). Last year it was much more evenly split, but the seeds had already been planted.
Also, I don’t think they are necessarily actively trying to shove him out the door. But if they can acquire a more accomplished pitcher for the top of the rotation, then with the bevy of young pitching that is major league ready, it only makes sense to trade away Julio and his $11M commitment when he has some trade value. It is exactly the same reasoning that led WAS to trade Tanner Roarke to the Reds.
And I do think he can be traded for a mid-level prospect with the entirety f his contract going with him.
Seriously… just $11M for 1 year for a guy that whose IP total last year of 175.2 was the least he’s given since he’s been a full time starter (2013).
And maybe I need to also clarify my position on him. I only want to see him traded under the conditions I mentioned above… only if we can acquire a more accomplished “horse” to lead the young rotation. Otherwise, I’m perfectly fine with him pitching out his deal here.
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Now, on the same topic of pitching, I heard a very fascinating interview with Leo Mazzone this morning on the radio. And I thin we can all agree that he knows a thing or two about pitching.
His favorite guy on the pitching market this year? Dallas Keuchel. Leo says Keuchel knows how to “pitch”, and he’s not trying to overpower any hitters. That’s why he can still be successful for another 3 years. Leo says he knows how to generate weak contact and keep the ball in the park. And if you look at DK’s pitching stats, Leo’s assertion is validated.
Leo went on to say that MLB has inflated the velocity they show on pitchers as a marketing tool. He asserts that the radar guns are calibrated high to inflate the MPH in what is the pitcher’s equivalent to the tightly would ball. Yes, chicks still dig the long ball, but 100 mph impresses us almost as much.
He continued saying that the byproduct of radar gun inflation is that young pitchers now concentrate too much on generating “velo” and not enough time learning how to “pitch”. Leo, who these days goes around and lectures on the dangers of overtaxing young arms, then gave a very jarring stat that I’ve never heard before.
52% of all TJ surgeries are performed on kids under the age of 19. Y’all, that’s jaw dropping.
OK… I got a little off track. I say all that to say this: Perhaps we were too quick to judge Dallas Keuchel based on factors that are less important than simply taking the mound (34 starts, 204.2 IP last season) and getting batters out. If Leo Mazzone thinks he would be a great addition to the Braves staff, who am I to argue?
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Your point is well taken guys. While I have been as frustrated as the next Braves fan with Julio’s Jeckel and Hyde act, he has been the guy in the #1 position for a long time and if used as a number 3 or 4 guy and as the grizzled vet I think his numbers would vastly improve.
There is a lot of pressure in having to be perfect every pitch. I think that is why so many good pitchers wilt in New York.
For sure, Julio is no Jacob DeGrome but he should not have to be. I think he is the perfect example of a pitcher who was called upon to throw a lot of innings before his arm fully matured and without the benefit of PEDs lost velocity on his fastball and bite on his slider as a result. He also became the victim of a very tight strike zone in several of the contest I saw him pitch in last year.
What perhaps was most apparent was his lack of a true out pitch. He could get to two strikes but could not seem to put guys away.
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Perhaps with a pitching coach who could encourage him to pitch to weak contact instead of trying to strike out everybody he could experience a renaissance.
There always seems to be a player or two on every team who become the whipping boy. Fans called for Markakis to be traded for 3 1/2 years. Now it is Julio and our current Gold Glove center fielder. Okay, I’ll admit it, Ender is no Andrew Jones but to me it would be like trading Andrelton Simmons… Oh, wait…
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An aside Leo gave in that interview was an insider’s peek into how GMs conduct themselves.
He said that John Schuerholz would go into a meeting room and basically say, “This is who’s available, and this is who we like. If we’re close, then let’s talk. If not, then let’s not waste our time.”
He went on to say that he was also with a GM, and he wouldn’t name the team but it wasn’t the Braves thus it was the Orioles, where the GM would sit down and say, “Who do you like?” and would then sit around for hours trying to piece something together on the other GM’s terms.
Anthopolous thankfully falls into the camp of the former.
In fact, did y’all know AntMan actually flew out early yesterday morning to attend a meeting with Liberty Media in Denver? Apparently he made all the contacts and had all the conversations he intended to have on Monday and Tuesday, leaving Asst. GM Perry Minasian to finish out the grunt work. He said that in the current day of communication technology, there was nothing he couldn’t do in Denver that he could do in Las Vegas.
As for today’s Rule 5 draft, the Braves pick #20 and do not anticipate any player falling that far that might stick on the active roster for the whole season. Minasian will attend, but does not expect to do anything.
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I understand how badly folks want to see Acuna Jr. play center but he is still really, really young and as such, is still very prone to attempting plays he cannot make. That leads to mistakes that puts a lot of pressure on young pitchers. Having base runners on 2nd & 3rd is infinitely more problematic than having runners on 1st & 3rd and that is often what happens when throwing to the wrong base.
To be sure, while the Braves have improved their line up with the addition of Josh Donaldson, they still have some holes to fill. One pitcher and one outfielder. I don’t think you can do that in today’s game for $25MM which is what AA is trying to sell as the Braves market cap. The only way you can do that is promote from within.
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A summary of the pitching movement yesterday, which should continue to loosen the market for more action:
RHP Tanner Roark was traded to CIN for prospect RHP Tanner Rainey. Seriously. What are the chances of that?
Starter JA Happ re-signed with the Yanks for 2 yrs/$34M with a 3rd year option at $17M.
Starter Charlie Morton goes to Tampa for 2 yrs/$30M.
Starter Lance Lynn goes to TEX for 3 yrs/$30M.
Reliever Joe Kelly goes to LAD for 3 yrs/$25M.
Reliever Jeurys Familia goes back to the Mets for 3 yrs/$30M.
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Famillia gives the Mets a very impressive late innings duo. If they can stay healthy, they are going to be tough to beat if they have a lead late.
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Vee, looks like we both see the same things, pitching to “weak” contact is an arm saver and saves your bullpen as well as allows a pitcher to go deep into games.
It is nice to have that strikeout pitch when you really need it but constantly allowing 5-8 pitch at bats means you won’t be around very often by the 5th inning.
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pitching to “weak” contact is an arm saver
… and made Greg Maddux the best pitcher I’ve ever seen in my generation.
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On AA going to Denver to meet with the Liberty Media honchos: I hope he went to make the case that adding another $25MM over their current payroll caps is what it will take to stay competitive in the NL East.
I mean gee, it does not take a rocket surgeon to figure out how much more valuable the franchise would be to capture a World Series or two.
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This guy is the National Sports Radio host for SiriusXM. Don’t know his sources, but he’s been pushing this narrative for several days now.
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AA’s trip to Denver?
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I truly believe the Braves will not give up Soroka. Newcomb I can see.
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https://twitter.com/MaxWildstein/status/1072936651901583360
This guy is the Yankees Insider for Gotham Sports Network.
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It is just my opinion but I am of the mind that the Braves feel they have the prospect capital for one big trade. That will be either Realmuto or one of the pair being offered up by Cleveland. Adding Realmuto means they do not have to have the big bat in the outfield and can concentrate a bit more on defense. Adding a pitcher delays for another year one of the studs on the farm.
The only power bat close to major league ready the Braves currently appear to have in their system is Riley. There are a few really good hitters in the system but they are still in the lower minors.
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Yep, once that capital is spent, it is gone to the other side of the board.
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My take on Sonny Gray…
I can see them taking Gray if, and only if, they put their more coveted assets into a premier bat, either JTR or an OF. And at that point I’d expect the bat to come first.
Bottom line is that the 2 needs are directly attached to each other. They have a certain amount to spend both in dollars and in prospects. I am of the opinion that they will not evenly split that, but they will make a splash on one front, leaving the other to a fallback option such i.e. Sonny Gray or Nick Markakis.
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the pair being offered up by Cleveland
I heard on a radio broadcast yesterday by some local media in Vegas that the Braves are not high on Trevor Bauer for the same reasons they are out on Zack Greinke. Apparently Bauer is an odd character that Braves execs don’t believe would fit well in the clubhouse.
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I hate using anecdotal evidence to make a point but Vee, you are right with the “clubhouse” mix. As a long time Oriole fan, I still remember the time when Reggie Jackson played in Baltimore. One of the first “million dollar” payrolls. It was a terrible fit and the O’s suffered for it. Further proof that you cannot always fix a problem with money.
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One of my favorite quotes was by a person who’s name I cannot remember to attribute it to said in referring to Reggie. “There is not enough mustard in Baltimore to cover that hotdog.”
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while I think Dallas would be fine here, I just wonder if he would be thought of as an ace….it just seems soft tossers don’t fair too well come playoff time…\
Now, if Folty could pitch with his mind and his arm, it would be less of an issue…
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while I think Dallas would be fine here, I just wonder if he would be thought of as an ace
I don’t think DK has ever been thought of as an “ace”. A “horse” maybe, but not an “ace”. I think it’s well established that there are only a small handful – 10 maybe? – of true aces scattered around, and of those only Zack Greinke and Corey Kluber are possibly available this offseason. We know Greinke is out, and suspect Kluber would require a Realmutian return. I suspect all things being equal, AntMan would rather acquire JTR over Kluber.
So given no available ace, I’ll take a horse to lead the rest of this young rotation through the season.
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Ha ha ha ha…
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it just seems soft tossers don’t fair too well come playoff time
While I’m not calling DK a HOF’er, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine would be considered “soft tossers” in 2018. DK still throws a 90 mph 4-seamer. 10 years ago that would be smoke… today it’s soft.
Here is the Brooks Baseball pitcher card on DK:
Dallas Keuchel has thrown 19,376 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2018, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2018, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (90mph), also mixing in a Slider (79mph), Cutter (87mph), Change (80mph) and Fourseam Fastball (90mph).
Basic description of 2018 pitches compared to other LHP:
His sinker is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, has surprisingly little armside run and has some natural sinking action. His slider sweeps across the zone, has exceptional depth and has below average velo. His cutter has extreme cut action and has some natural sink. His change has slightly below average velo and has some natural sink to it. His fourseam fastball is straight as an arrow, generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has some natural sinking action and has essentially average velo.
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Rule 5 recap, courtesy of DOB:
Braves passed with the No. 20 pick in the Rule 5 draft Thursday morning
Braves took no picks and lost no one either in the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft Thursday
Braves selected 26-year-old RH reliever Jason Creasy from Dbacks’ Double-A roster in Triple-A phase of Rule 5 draft
Creasy has a 1.96 ERA in 44 appearances with 50 K’s, 6 walks and 1 homer allowed in 36 2/3 innings for independent-league team Southern Maryland
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Heard a report this morning that the Braves execs have remained in contact with both the Dodgers and Rangers. Reportedly those are the two teams that AA spent the most time talking to. Obviously the topic would be OFers with both teams. The speculation is that Thoppy has been asking LAD about Joc Pederson primarily over Yasiel Puig.
Reading between the lines, LAD would like to bring back a prime prospect from ATL to help them land Corey Kluber from CLE.
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So awesome.
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ATL still hanging in there…
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Clark Spencer is the Marlins beat writer for the Miami Herald.
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Jon Heyman dropped these notes on the Braves yesterday:
— The Braves have been in touch with the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto, and new word that Tyler Flowers could be had in trade lends credence to the idea that the Braves could wind up with Realmuto. One rival suggests he could see the Braves as a favorite. “They have the prospects,” that rival pointed out …
— The report that the Braves were floating pitcher Mike Soroka and third baseman Austin Riley was called “utter BS.” Though it’s possible they are offering Riley and others …
— Soroka looked like a coming star when he was called up as an underaged pitcher last year, and after suffering arm trouble, he is said to be doing well …
— The Braves were one of the teams in on Sonny Gray …
— The Braves have interest in A.J. Pollock, but they might want to find a taker for Ender Inciarte if they do that. Meantime, one Braves person says Inciarte, Foltynewicz and Swanson are “staying put.”
My take… I get a sense that JTR is the main focus of Thoppy, but that he simply wont give up the farm to make it happen. And neither will any other team. At this point, I believe the teams that are seriously still in are simply waiting for MIA to blink and come back to reality, at which point the Braves will still have the best offer. And I tend to agree with Tomahawk Take’s Alan Carpenter, who says:
I will nonetheless continue to maintain that J.T. Realmuto is the #1 trade target – period. All paths lead from this effort – whether successful or not… and indeed, the Braves could themselves be holding up a lot of transactions that other teams have planned because of this.
This is the linchpin deal. And once the prospect capital is spent on JTR, the dollar capital can be redirected toward pitching and OF.
I don’t think the Braves are serious about Pollock, and are only mildly interested in Gray. And I think Ender is staying put.
But I could be wrong about all of that.
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Weird to see a rich, WS winning team be so willing to let their best bullpen arms leave (I.E. Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, and likely Kimbrel) because of money….guess the Yankees will win the AL East in 2019
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Giving that much money to late inning arms that put max effort into every pitch multiple times a week is not good business. If someone gives Kimbrel the 6-year deal he’s asking for, they’re crazy… regardless of how dominant he has been or might be 2019. It can literally all come crashing down on one pitch.
Long term deals themselves can strangle a team, and especially those given to volatile talent. A very similar example occurred when the Braves signed the great Bruce Sutter, who promptly blew out his arm and couldn’t even finish out the deal, much less dominate.
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Another more recent example: Jose Ramirez. This guy was a real up-and-comer, throwing serious heat and at times untouchable for the Braves. Then all of a sudden, it all fell apart on a “shoulder strain”, and he may never pitch in the ML again.
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More from Carpenter, that I completely agree with:
— If the Braves fail to land Realmuto, they will likely make an immediate pivot toward Cleveland to try and get [Corey] Kluber… using similar prospects.
— If they do get Realmuto, then they may choose to make an offer to [Dallas] Keuchel.
— If Kluber proves unattainable and Keuchel proves too costly, then perhaps engaging with the Yankees on Gray could still be done.
— The team would need to spin [Julio Teheran] off to help offset these other contracts… and to create a hole in the rotation for the new guy.
IMO, that is a very accurate picture of the priority list.
And I think the underlying point in here is that the Braves will not expect to get 162 games from McFlowers. If the JTR pursuit fails, AntMan will also have to address that. But as I’ve now come to believe, he’s going to make this deal happen. I’m truly beginning to believe that unless some team – the Mets – blinks first and gives up the moon and stars.
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Perhaps a 3 way deal can make it happen? I just HATE the thought of seeing a braves guy beat us several times a year
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Then we must win. 😀
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Like Adam Wainwright did eh?
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I am inclined to believe that Austin Riley is the main target for Miami. he checks a lot of boxes for them and next season the Braves will be scratching their heads trying to figure out who to plug into 3rd base. Just saying…
I can realistically foresee the Braves playing Realmuto 5 times a week and playing BMac once. It worked for the Braves during the Javy Lopez era.
I cannot blame Kimbrel for attempting to secure his grand kids future. He should be very careful to not sign with the Dodgers for money alone as they will eat him alive with taxes. With that much money at stake, you better have a darn good CPA who is both trustworthy and bonded. The IRS doesn’t care if your accountant stole all your money, you are still on the hook for the taxes.
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I also expect that any deal with the Marlins would include Flowers in the return. The Fish will need a catcher and I know one of the ask from the Mets has been Comforto.
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I can realistically foresee the Braves playing Realmuto 5 times a week and playing BMac once.
Or he can be Dallas Keuchel’s personal catcher, since they are well acquainted from their time in Houston. 😀
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Still not quite sure why JT is so darned hot….he’s a good hitter, who doesn’t drive in many runs(Didn’t when they had an all star outfield either) who rarely walks, and a very good catcher. Holds the running game of teams down…but, who runs anymore? Is it just because there isn’t a real prospect in the future here?
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Yep.
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Still not quite sure why JT is so darned hot
This explains it well, even if albeit from a Mets point of view.
https://nypost.com/2018/12/13/why-j-t-realmuto-is-worthy-of-all-the-superlatives-youve-heard/
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I’ll save you a little reading and post the last 2 paragraphs, which summarize it well:
It does not take much digging to get a load of checkmarks on his leadership and smarts. He was, for example, not part of the Marlins’ pre-series/game scouting meetings. He ran those meetings.
Put it all together: Huge surplus value, positional scarcity, prime age, two-way effectiveness, high-end athleticism, strong intangibles, and this is why the Mets and many others are working diligently to try to land Realmuto — and why Miami is trying to maximize this trade piece.
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thanks V, I feel….a little better about the situation. His numbers would be better here too, smaller park…….fans in said park.
but surplus value…bleh 😛
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Not to mention, more guys on base ahead of you normally translates to higher RBI opportunities and thus more RBIs. I think the point being is Realmuto is the best catcher available and would likely flourish even more in a different environment.
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He’s the best catcher in….a really weak catchers market. Bet Kurt and Tyler beat him, offensively speaking….they did, at least in most numbers…
JT’s numbers seemed to have improved last year, which seems odd….when you have Yelich, Stanton and…crap the other all stars…should have been an RBI machine…oh well
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Can you just imagine a lineup that has a top 4 of:
1- Ronald Acuña, Jr
2- Josh Donaldson
3- Freddie Freeman
4- JT Realmuto
… and for the purposes of this exercise:
5- Michael Brantley
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So here is why I question batting a player 2nd verse 4th, unless you are planning on being in a lot of one hit games, the net difference in plate appearances is pretty low. I am a much bigger fan of 3 run homers than I am of solo blast… Just saying…
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Cleveland made a trade yesterday which cleared some salary for 2019 so if I were Braves fans, I would scratch Kluber and Bauer off their wish list. They have no need to trade them now and would be unwise to do so.
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https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/braves-no-longer-pursuing-jt-realmuto-trade/c-301896128
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To be perfectly honest, as much as I would like to have Realmuto wearing a Braves uniform, if he goes somewhere else I will not be crushed. I’m pretty much over him. After all, he played for Miami last season and they did not exactly set the world on fire.
Okay, that was a cheap shot. Yes, I would like the Braves to add him to their line up but we have been talking about him for two seasons now and if Miami thinks the Braves have to have him at the expense of the future, well, I’d pass. ( Texieria anyone)?
The young arms the Braves currently have are only going to get better as they gain experience and if one or two get hurt (arm or shoulder trouble) at least they have a lot of depth at the position. Who knows if the ones who pull up lame aren’t the ones they were counting on after they traded other prospects away.
Like I have said before, as much as I would love to have a Mercedes, I like eating regularly better so we all have to make choices and if Riley is so good that Miami wants him then in 2020 he will be just what the doctor ordered for the Braves to man the hot corner. To me he appears to be a more athletic version of Ryan Klesko.
Great teams are not built on offense alone unless you are talking about fantasy teams. It is why Bobby Cox would play Andrew Jones everyday in center field even when mired in horrible hitting slumps. Also why Heyward is considered a premium ballplayer even if hit bat lets him down on occasion. It is also why I could live with the Braves bring back Markakis for a couple of more years as long as he is not penciled in to bat in the clean up spot.
The Antman got his power bat in Josh Donaldson. Bring in a solid veteran pitcher and call it a day. The Braves are still building, they are a year ahead of their projected timetable so I can deal with it. The rest of the division is going to be better so it should be a dog fight until the end.
PS, I still think the best guy taken off the Marlins roster last season was Christian Yelich and he was had for a lot less than a lot of the other guys and why Jeter only has one chip left to play so he knows it has to count.
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And upon further review, I don’t know of any players out their right now who would command a mother lode of prospects other than Realmuto and either of the two pitchers currently under contract with Cleveland. With Yonder Alonso being traded to the White Sox, their payroll seems perfectly capable of retaining the services of Kluber and Bauer so move along folks, nothing to see here.
I now feel fairly certain they will talk with the Yankees about taking Sonny Gray off their hands for some not so highly ranked prospects. While they would still be decent prospects, they won’t be in the Braves top 15 and most likely still at the A level so roster space will not have to be cleared.
I am also of the mind that if the Braves can move Julio they will do it but they might also want to see if their new pitching coach can resurrect Tehran’s fortunes. If Julio does not have to face Bryce Harper 60 at-bats a year, his ERA could well drop a full run for the season. Harper has owned Julio and both players know it….
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Mets have a two-year deal with catcher Wilson Ramos, source confirms to Yahoo Sports. First with the agreement was @DaniAlvarez_16. Another club out of the J.T. Realmuto sweepstakes.
Another team out of the Realmuto sweepstakes… One has to wonder who will blink first?
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1- Ronald Acuña, Jr
2- Josh Donaldson
3- Freddie Freeman
4- JT Realmuto
… and for the purposes of this exercise:
looks good, but I would like to see
1- Ozzie
2 -Ronald Acuña, Jr
3- Freddie Freeman
4- Josh Donaldson
5 – JT Realmuto
6- Michael Brantley or Nick M.
I know, Ozzie would have to walk a bit for that to happen…
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I know, Ozzie would have to walk a bit for that to happen
Well, if we are going to a perfect world, then how about:
1- Ozzie
2- RAJ
3- Freddie
4- JD
5- Bryce Harper
6- Buster Posey
7- Ender Inciarte
8- Dansby Swanson
Hey… a guy can dream, can’t he?
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OK… so we are out of the JTR derby. It was becoming a circus anyway. Actually, it had already become a circus. Miami had one big card to play, and it was a good one. Still, they managed to completely screw it up.
Well… ok.
So I have 2 comments and I’ll move on from the sideshow.
First, I still don’t believe the Braves are completely out of it. I won’t until we either address the catching situation further (I cannot believe that AntMan will go into 2019 with uncertainty behind the plate, and looking at the current tandem completely objectively, we don’t have 162 games worth of catching), or spend the prospect capital on a pitcher. And once the incompetent Marlins re-adjust their demands – which they will have to do at some point as they cannot go into the season with JTR now – the Braves will probably be back in the conversation again.
Second, and related to the first point, the Mets did address their situation with finality. Thus, they are 100% out of the JTR extravaganza. And that severely damages what MIA was foolishly trying to accomplish. Now that the Fish no longer have the Braves and Mets around to wishfully bid against each other, they are left with Cincinnati and San Diego? Maybe Tampa? If this was football, it would be an egregious fumble.
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Yep, I am of the opinion the Braves still have an offer on the table and until they make a move to shore up their erstwhile catching tandum, they are still in the game or until those same prospects are used on pitching or an outfielder. At this point, Austin Riley (the best position player the Braves have in their top ten) is not really blocked but every long term player added makes it harder for him too find playing time barring an injury.
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their erstwhile catching tandum,
You’ve confused me. Esrtwhile? Former? Previous? Aren’t they projected to the current catchers?
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A bad adjective CL. While old is a synonym, it is not often used as such.
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Consider the odds, between the 30 major league teams, there are 750 players on the everyday roster. Roughly half of those are pitchers and half of those are starting pitchers. That’s about 190 starting pitchers, of those only about 10 are considered true aces. Is there any wonder why teams are loath to trade really promising arms? It is like buy lottery tickets and then trading them away for half price. While traded arms seldom become Aces, every so often one turns out to be an Adam Wainwright , John Smoltz or Noah Syndegard. It takes a brave GM to pull the trigger to keep the bird in the hand for the two in the bush.
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Gil, this Craig Mish fellow in Miami continues to stand by his conviction that the Braves are still leading the derby, especially now that the Mets are officially out. In my very humble opinion, the last exchange between Thoppy and MIA probably went something like this:
MIA: Hi, Alex. Ready to cave and give us Riley?
Thop: My offer of Newcomb, Flowers and Gohara is still on the table. You can’t have Riley. Period. I’m heading out to Denver. If you change your mind, you have my number. If you get a better offer, you should take it.
And that’s where it stands.
Thus, Bowman and Mish are likely both right… Thoppy hasn’t talked to MIA in several days, yet they are still the favorite to land him.
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One more comment and I will give it a rest, Jeter should take a look around and realize the difference in keeping too tight a hold on Realmuto verses the lose in value in hanging onto him past his real value. Ask the Orioles how much more they could have got for Machado if they had traded him two years ago vs a deadline trade last season.
I don’t blame the Marlins for trying to get the most they can for their last remaining trade piece but I cannot blame others for not wanting to overpay.
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And to be sure, the three players you named would be solid adds for Miami and are about the right price for a player who only is guaranteed to stay for two years.
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First, I still don’t believe the Braves are completely out of it.
V, I bet you are right, but tell the media that, and Miami sweats a bit…
Thop: My offer of Newcomb, Flowers and Gohara is still on the table.
Miami would be foolish to turn down that deal…of course, they are pretty foolish, aren’t they. 2 young ,cheap, hard throwing lefties that have the potential to win 15 games a year, for years to come, and be thorns in the side of the braves for many a year.
I wonder if they would want 2 established guys though, say Newcomb and Camargo?
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I would think Thoppy would be in at that price point. I’m interested in how this will shake out…
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To be honest, I have no clue as to who or what Thoppy is planing on doing pursuing at this point….
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I think that’s the way he wants it.
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But here’s what I do know…
Michael Brantley was supposedly the top target (according to many) to replace Nick in RF. Cutch was supposedly the fallback. Again though, that was according to observers… not Thoppy himself. And now both are off the table. So what now?
The AntMan prides himself on being keeping his dealings completely under wraps. And it would appear that his office is doing a stellar job at remaining the stealthiest in baseball. The only hints we’ve gotten at all this winter have come from other teams leaking info… likely in hopes of gaining some leverage through the press, i.e. JTR situation.
I suppose we can suppose all we want. We aren’t going to know whats happening until it’s happening.
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Well, I would say things are looking brighter for Nick Markakis… Just saying…
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I believe that if Thoppy were of a mind to wait it out and bring Nick back, he’d just go ahead and bring Nick back. I honestly believe Nick is the last fallback option.
IMO, Brantley was the guy they favored in FA and likely at about the price point that he agreed to with HOU. But I really believe that Thop prefers the trade route over FA… especially now that they appear – here I go supposing again – to have moved away from JTR and now that Kluber is pretty much off the market. He;s gonna spend the prospect capital now. ANd it only makes sense to spend it now, while it’s pretty much at its peak value.
I believe he’s working on acquiring an OF in trade.
The obvious candidates come from LAD, SDP and TEX.
The Dodgers obviously would prefer to trade Yasiel Puig over Joc Pederson, but Thoppy has all the inside connections there and is probably working them all to get an inside track on Pederson. But even if he can’t get them to budge on Joc, is Puig a bad candidate? After all, he’s a super athletic guy that at times can be the most dangerous hitter in the game. He’s a good baserunner and a superior defender. The only downside is that he does being a little bit of ‘tude, but not necessarily bad ‘tude. Flair, as they say. He profiles into the cleanup spot perfectly. And he’s only under contract for 1 more year at a very reasonable $11M. LAD isn’t exactly trying to “dump” Puig, but they do have an excess of OF and would like to move one… preferably Puig. So the prospect cost would probably not be very high.
We’ve also mentioned the Rangers and their pair of slugging OF’s Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo. TEX is desperate for pitching and seems another obvious trade partner. This week another name has emerged in Jurickson Profar, a former top prospect himself who hasn’t found a position in Arlington. Profar came up as a 2B and has played all over the IF, and does have about 210 ML innings in LF. He’d certainly be a better fielder than Mazara. He reminds me a little of Johan Camargo with more power. I think the way versatility is being favored these days he’d be a desirable pickup. Last year the SH Profar slashed .254/.335/.458 with 20 HRs and 10 steals. I’ll take any one of the three. Profar is probably the most complete player, but Gallo or Mazara would give you a ton of power.
And let’s not forget San Diego. They also are desperate for pitching and have a surplus of corner OF’s. There’s 21-year-old Franmil Reyes, the typical slugger: major power and alot of swing-and-miss. And he’s under team control until 2025. He’d require a haul in prospects, though. Then there’s Wil Myers, who is also big power, big strikeouts. The former 3B is not the smoothest fielder, but is passable. He’s also under contract for $22.5M per year from 2020-2022, but only $5.5M in 2019, so he’d easily fit the payroll with JD’s 1-year commitment. He’d cost the least in prospect for obvious reasons. Hunter Renfroe’s name has come up alot, but it would seem that the Pads are loathe to let him go unless blown away by an offer.
I say all this to simply state that I think this is the direction Thoppy is going. I think Nick’s time here is done or he’d already be wrapped up and under the tree. And I think the fact that Thop wasn’t in at all on Brantley at 2 years/$32M is an indication that a trade is coming. And if I were pinned down to make a guess, I’d say we might want to warm up to a certain animated Cuban.
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One man’s clown is another man’s entertainer.
On that note, if you think RAJ and Ozzie Albies are a bit the top now, adding Puig would turn the Braves bench into a zoo…. Not a bad think if you like zoos…. especially the monkey house…
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I think this is a key point that I admittedly have sort of glossed over. And it’s a very good point.
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if you think RAJ and Ozzie Albies are a bit the top now, adding Puig would turn the Braves bench into a zoo
I personally don’t think RAJ or Ozzie are over the top. I actually enjoy their youthful zeal with alot, yes ALOT of envy. And I do believe that Puig has toned it down some since his rookie year that was truly over the top. If the Braves don’t think Puig would make for a good clubhouse fit, they won’t consider him. They’ve already proven that with their stated stances on Greinke and Bauer. That aside, Puig’s talent is certainly not questionable. I think he’d be a great fit in the lineup and on the field. And there’s a little part of me that would love to see him and Mac on the same team. 😀
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Don’t get me wrong, not saying I would mind the zoo atmosphere, I think it would living things up a bit but to be sure, if Snit had hair, it would be a bit grayer by season’s end…
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Vee, I fully understand the Braves position to not spend money foolishly but we were not the ones who said the Braves would not let money stand in the way of signing some of the more high profile players entering into free agency.
With their alluding to being able to spend money to improve the team and bring in high profile talent they gave the impression that even Bryce Harper was not off the table but so far all we have heard is poor mouthing. That is the frustrating part.
The Braves are going to do what they are going to do but if you always present yourself as a poor relation, few in the family willing open their doors to you. If you are going to be a winner, act like a winner…
It brings to mind this old story about Florenz Ziegfeld of Ziegfeld’s Follies. When he directed his wardrobe person to make sure the girls all had silk underwear. When he was asked why, no one would ever see them or know they were silk his reply was, “the girls will know”… My point is sometimes you have to go that extra mile and do the little things as well as the big so the “fans will know”….
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I’m not sure that I’ve heard them say that they “can’t” afford anyone, rather that they intend to spend wisely. In fact, Derek Schiller went on record saying that Liberty Media can spend whatever amount they deem appropriate without limit. (Of course, that’s entirely up to them to decide.)
Spending wisely means you don’t give BJ Upton a 5 yr/$72.5M deal when his numbers are trending downward. As I recall, I was quite excited over that signing… because we did something big. I’ll admit that today. But it was obviously a dumb move. Giving Nathan Eovaldi 4 yrs/$62.5M is exciting, but dumb given that he has already had 2 TJ surgeries. And as much as I like Craig Kimbrel, if somebody gives him the 6 year 6 figure deal he’s seeking, it’ll be a dumb move.
So as we’ve all cautioned many times, the off season is not even half over. Thus far, only 16 of MLBTR’s Top 50 FA’s have signed or agreed to deals. There is still alot of time to get something done in both FA and trades. If we get into January and haven’t addressed any additional needs, then I’ll get antsy (no pun intended). But until then, I’m sitting patiently… well, scouring the media constantly, but patiently doing so.
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And of course they could perfect the “bat flip” to an art form….
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And speaking of RAJ, he turns 21 today. Happy Birthday El Abusador!!
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SiriusXM’s sports guy and Marlins insider Craig Mish has been conspicuously quiet regarding Realmuto in the last couple of days since the Braves were “counted out” of the derby in the press. He does still have the following tweet pinned to the top of his Twitter feed, though. It hasn’t changed since the Mets acquired Wilson Ramos.
I gotta give him credit… he’s sticking to his guns.
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My guess is he is still waiting for someone to change his mind, after all, other than having BMac return for 2019, does anyone realistically believe he and Flow will stay health enough to catch 162 games plus in 2019?
BMac is a bench piece/part time pitching coach/clubhouse guru whom the Braves are only paying $2MM a year who can also catch on occasion.
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While BMac is officially a catcher, he is more likely a left handed power bat who can catch enough to justify his signing especially at only the bargain price of $2MM. Think about it, he is being paid a lot less than Big City is in Washington and Adams would not played that much at first base with Freddie Freeman holding down the position.
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other than having BMac return for 2019, does anyone realistically believe he and Flow will stay health enough to catch 162 games plus in 2019?
I don’t.
BMac is a bench piece/part time pitching coach/clubhouse guru whom the Braves are only paying $2MM a year who can also catch on occasion.
I believe that to be exactly right. I think they gave Flow his extension with the thought he’d be a more conventional backup. And I think the saw an opportunity to reunite with Mac and jumped on it, rendering Flow a bit redundant. But they can’t state that publicly. I think they really want a true starting catcher that will given them 120 or so games behind the dish. Will they get one? Uh… not so sure about that.
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… all of which justifies the forgotten signing of the offensively challenged but defensively solid Raffy Lopez to a deal back in November.
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😀
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I’d take Puig long before someone like Manny B.E. He’s a hot dog…and gets a bit too close to some guy’s faces (he has kissed A LOT of Dodgers 😉 ) but he doesn’t play dirty.
but…but….have you noticed he for some reason hasn’t been able to hit lefties the last 2 seasons? How odd is that? Did the dodgers get into his head by not playing him against lefties, so he tried too hard against them?
And for the catchers….I do think to guys in their mid 30s can catch 70-80 games each. Tech is forever getting better surgery wise, they both should be in awesome shape (well, TFlow is at least) they don’t have to play on astroturf in Philly, St. Louis, etc, etc…IF you could have a 3rd catcher on the roster (How come the unions don’t push for a 26th man roster?) man what a difference that would make, huh?
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Awesome roster pic, CL. 🙂
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Interesting observation on the Brantley signing in HOU:
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Bowman makes a few key points this afternoon also:
— The Braves have the financial means to match the average annual value given to McCutchen ($16.7 million) and Brantley ($16 million). But in relation to these two outfielders, there was a sense the Braves could gain better value by addressing each of their remaining needs: a front-line starter, bullpen depth and, of course, an outfielder.
— Although the Braves have not publicly indicated their projected 2019 payroll, they have said it will increase to the point they will no longer be in MLB’s bottom third. Even after signing Josh Donaldson ($23 million) and Brian McCann ($2 million) to one-year deals, it’s believed they still have at least $30 million left to spend. Braves chairman Terry McGuirk recently responded to Donaldson’s signing by saying the team has the financial means to make another similar short-term investment.
— Anthopoulos [could] allocate up to $10 million of his remaining funds toward moves that could be made to upgrade the roster during the 2019 season.
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… and it’s still important to remember that any move to acquire a starting pitcher could easily facilitate a corresponding move to trade away Julio Teheran and his $11M commitment.
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Okay, enough of this, the Braves are going to do what the Braves are going to do. I am confident they will have three outfielders playing. I just would like for it to be 3 really really good outfielders. What I don’t want to hear is “they were asking too much money” … Folks, I think we have gotten a pretty good idea of the market price by now. While Thoppy does not have to shop at Nordstrums, I don’t think the Braves have to be confined to the flea markets either.
Maybe AA secret plan is to resurrect Adam Duvall.
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I’m betting trade…
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Mr. Mish has updated his percentages. He’s hanging on like a pit bull…
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Makes you go “hmmmmm…”
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Yes, Nick gets no respect from most Braves fans, Ender is hoping Nick returns so he won’t be the one named as the player most likely to be traded.
So, the real answer lies in the evaluations done on every player which reveals two very important things: 1) bat speed 2) eye sight To me, if the trend is downward on either of those two things then you take a pass because both are critical for success by a major league hitter. Think Jason Werth in his final season with the Nats….
I am interested in seeing what kind of shape Adam Duval shows up in the spring and if the Braves hitting coaches can get him turned around. I know that is the type of impact signing we are hoping for but their are lots of reasons for a huge drop off in production by a player like Duval. The Braves did not exactly drop him when they had the chance so there must be something the boys in the Stats department saw.
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And I am over the Braves missing out on Michael Brantley. We don’t know that the Braves didn’t make a serious run at him. Brantley might have just felt more comfortable staying in the AL and the Astros aren’t exactly chopped liver. So there is that.
Here is my take on the state of the Braves line up. If the Braves are able to get Realmuto, they can go for a more defensive minded outfielder. Certainly the need for a Bryce Harper is greatly diminished. You need big bats in your line up but you don’t need all big bats in your line up. There is always room for a light hitting middle infielder if that is your need.
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— Although the Braves have not publicly indicated their projected 2019 payroll, they have said it will increase to the point they will no longer be in MLB’s bottom third. Even after signing Josh Donaldson ($23 million) and Brian McCann ($2 million) to one-year deals, it’s believed they still have at least $30 million left to spend. Braves chairman Terry McGuirk recently responded to Donaldson’s signing by saying the team has the financial means to make another similar short-term investment.
— Anthopoulos [could] allocate up to $10 million of his remaining funds toward moves that could be made to upgrade the roster during the 2019 season
I guess I’m just tired this AM….one part of this article says it’s believedf they have at least 30 mil to spend. then that Thoppy could allocate up to 10 Mil of his remaining funds to upgrade the roster during the season. Huh? They could spend 20 mil now, then 10 mil during the season? much confuzzlement…
of course if this money isn’t available are they going to say, this moola isn’t available? or just say, couldn’t find the right player , it wasn’t a money issue?
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If the Braves are able to get Realmuto, they can go for a more defensive minded outfielder.
If by some Christmas miracle they are able to acquire JTR, then we’ll probably see Nick back in RF for another year… with an option. And TBH, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. My gut says no JTR, though. I’m still feeling an OF trade.
Last observations on Michael Brantley… While JD suffered a serious injury and missed significant time last season, Brantley has missed significant time in each of the last 3 seasons. In my mind, that’s very different. Recurring leg injuries always seem to, ya know… recur? Also, on a tweet welcoming him to the Astros, a new teammate hashtagged him “Professional Hitter”. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Maybe a professional hitter in the clubhouse is truly worth 2 in the opposing dugout. I dunno… I’m just spitballin’…
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Good for TP, he was truly one of the most important acquisitions made by the Braves which led to the change in fortunes in the ’90s . Duffy on the other hand preceded my Braves fandom by a few decades. 🙂
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Interesting that the Tribe continue to talk about Kluber even though they got their payroll relief by sending Yonder Alonzo to the Pale Hose. Is it notable that the Braves are not listed? Nah. Based on what I’ve seen over the last 2 weeks especially, I think these writer dudes just make half their tweets up anyway.
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That would be Cincy’s #’s 1 & 2 prospects, both OF’s. I have to think it’s Stenzel OR Trammell, not both. Both would be insane. But the real point here is that they need OF’s really badly. And that’s probably why JPM listed the teams he did… they are known to want pitching and have OF’s. I suppose the Braves are kind of the opposite. It could also impact how the Braves make a deal for an OF as the same teams are probably also in dialogue with Thoppy about our young pitching… specifically LAD and maybe even MIL.
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Those are two pretty highly ranked rookies.
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Matt Harvey has a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels that could be worth up to $14 million with performance bonuses, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. Deal is pending a physical. @Feinsand was first with the news.
I was wondering about where Harvey would end up. I guess he was too expensive for AA to take a run at.
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I predict………………………there will be little news between now and the start of 2019 😛
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A fairly safe prediction methinks Ber. we the Christmas and New Years upon us, most people are not thinking about business, just vacations somewhere. They will either be skiing or at a beach somewhere. Just they way it works out for the moneyed class.
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I guess he was too expensive for AA to make a run at.
Nope. Too flaky and too volatile. Not a good fit in alot of clubhouses, especially a young one.
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It’s kind of easy to take shots at Thoppy right now since others are making moves and he’s quiet. Let’s not forget he did strike big and strike early. Would we feel differently if he signed JD this week instead of last month?
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Yes, there is that…
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A thumb to the eye…
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Good for Anibal, deal is reported for two years for $19MM. Can’t blame him for signing with the Nats.
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Another one off the board as Profar goes to OAK. Still, wasn’t a perfect fit. I’ll take Mazara from them, thanks.
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https://twitter.com/i/status/1076152656664633350
Cute stuff
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Dang!!
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That, in effect, takes LAD out of any trade scenario with the Braves…
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True that, it appears they no longer have a glut of outfielders.
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Well, I would not be at all surprised to see one of the two outfielder’s flipped to another team.
I am sure the Dodgers are eating a lot of payroll.
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Matt Kemp gets to crush baseballs in The Great American Smallpark. Yowser…
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It would not make sense for the Reds to make that trade otherwise.
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It would not make sense for the Reds to make that trade otherwise.
Homer Bailey was their version of Julio Teheran except much much worse. Last season he won exactly 1 game in 20 starts with a 6.09 ERA, and he’s due $23M this year with a $25M team option next year that contains a $5M buyout.
Anything to get rid of Homer Bailey made sense.
And in return, they get 2 everyday OF’s that can crush baseballs, especially in the little league park, as well as a very useful and versatile lefty pitcher plus another ML reserve.
The big takeaway from this is that the money LAD is saving will allow them to sign Bryce Harper. That will happen now. That was the entire focus of the trade from their standpoint. Bailey will never suit up for the Dodgers. He’ll simply be released in much the same way Adrian Gonzalez was by the Braves last year.
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Just as an aside, after playing in the bright lights of the left coast, I suspect Cincy is going to be a heck of a culture shock for Puig.
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Yes, but he is being reunited with Turner Ward, his old hitting coach in LAD wh’s now in CIncy and who many think was key to making Puig successful in LA.
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Harper on the other hand will be going home if he signs with LA. Just a short hop to Vegas from Hollywood…
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And for Alex Wood… he goes from being the 6th man in a 5 man rotation in LA to the #1 starter in Cincy.
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And just like that the Reds have put together a pretty formidable lineup. Now if they can just round up a little more pitching…
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ATL’s possible OF trade partners are dwindling. Looks like TEX and MIL, and possibly SDP remain… likely in that order.
Well, that is unless Thoppy can make Jerry Dipoto listen on Mitch Hanigan.
Is it just me, or does anyone else get the sense that maybe the Braves are a little handcuffed while trying to get a workable scenario with Miami?
Ummm… Santa?
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Yes, that could be possible, the Braves could be faced with a short term overpay but there was no way they would pay Kemp $22MM. The going rate for free agent outfielders of lesser renown seems to me to be between $16MM and $22MM. To think they are going to get by for less is a pipe dream.
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And speaking of Miami, with Cincy making this deal, taking on payroll and including prospects going to LA, they may have in essence taken themselves out of the JTR derby.
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So an open spot or Bryce still isn’t wide open. Yet.
Rosenthal also hinted earlier that the Dodgers might still need to clear a bit more payroll space for Bryce, too, as they are still responsible for Bailey’s $23M for 2019 plus $5M buyout for next.
I sure wouldn’t mind Joc Pederson’s LH power in our lineup.
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You have got to be kidding me…
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Maybe they needed Santana to replace the about-to-be-traded Mitch Haniger.
Santa..?
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I predict………………………there will be little news between now and the start of 2019
Does Berigan get a prophecy star? No? 😛
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I thought you were referring to the Braves but okay… 🙂
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both 😉
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Just for you CL!!!!!!
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LOL! Only you, Ber, would think of me! The only problem with all those guys is that they’re too old for me. sigh 😀 😀
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Sending you Christmas greetings and wishing each of you has a blessed and joyful Christmas celebration!
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Jose Martinez was the Cardinals’ second-best hitter in 2018, he has a .309/.372/.478 slash line over 915 career MLB plate appearances, and he isn’t eligible to hit free agency until after the 2022 season. On most clubs, Martinez would be considered a valuable building block — in St. Louis, he has already become an afterthought.
Well, the Braves could use a corner outfielder with a solid bat….
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Merry Christmas everyone. I hope everyone has a great day.
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Hope everyone is having a Merry Christmas too!
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Merry Christmas all!!
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Jose Martinez was the Cardinals’ second-best hitter in 2018, he has a .309/.372/.478 slash line over 915 career MLB plate appearances, and he isn’t eligible to hit free agency until after the 2022 season. On most clubs, Martinez would be considered a valuable building block — in St. Louis, he has already become an afterthought.
Well, the Braves could use a corner outfielder with a solid bat….
Gil, I hear he’s terrible in the outfield…but, you hear a lot of things. How good can anyone be that has only recently started playing a position. There is a reason baseball folks put guys at one position. Yes, there are guys that can play multiple positions with ease. But, we still see that as a bonus these days, as many players can’t. \
Some guys just need the reps to get better. The dude just flat out rakes. But doesn’t have much power. Nick M, but 5 years younger, and a bit better hitter average wise.
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Well, you just never know… I’m sure the Braves will do their due diligence.
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Jose Martinez was still in high-A in the Braves system at 25. He’s already 30 and doesn’t field particularly well at any position. For my personal preference, I think if I’m gonna take a poor fielder I’d rather have Nick Castellanos.
But if we are talking true preference, both of these two bat RH and the lineup really needs a LH bat… like Joc Pederson. 🙂
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Just throwing names out there Vee…
The longer we go, the more I am inclined to believe the Braves will go with an internal solution pending spring training outcomes.
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Nah. Christmas is barely over. Someone will toss another log in the fire and the ol’ stove’ll be smokin’ hot again.
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Hmmm… I have to think for a team rich in pitching prospects, but poor in catching, it should be JTR.
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Here is a guy I completely forgot about…Adam Jones. Doesn’t walk but before last year, he had 7 straight 25 + home run seasons. Last year, only 15, but 35 doubles…
He’s 33
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Yes Ber, Adam Jones had a bit of a down year last season but he also did not have much protection in the line up. I don’t think his defense has fallen off at all. I know he turned down a trade to the Nationals last season but who knows the whys and how fors on that.
Vee, that is the current $64,000 question. Either or both… I suspect the Braves are in on both with similar players being offered and the Braves could pull back on one if the Indians or Marlins accept an offer but there are a lot of teams making a run at Kluber and I suspect a like number for Realmuto but the market for Realmuto is getting thinner.
To be sure, both the Mets and the Nationals have improved their pitching depth this winter but the Braves are the wild card team when it comes to pitching. The only question is how durable all those young arms can be. Could it be we will no longer be looking at pitchers who typically toss 200 plus innings a season but now 150 will become the norm?
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I believe in balance. That’s why my Christmas list has Joc Pederson as item #1. Of course, it is just a wish list…
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I personally believe AA is waiting for the rest of the suitors to fall away and for the price tag on JTR to come back to reality. And when it finally does happen, the Braves will have the best offer on the table. One that actually makes sense.
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V, I will grant you Peterson has potential…but….his career B.A. is .228. .248, .321 in 2018. He lead off a lot last year, which explains the 25 HR’s and only 56 RBI’s but with risp, he only hit 2 HR’s drove in 27, and hit .217. Also, if folks wouldn’t give Matt Adams a chance against lefties…. in 57 ab’s he only hit .170 against them last year. so, he’s a platoon guy, unless they give him a chance. And, this is weird, never played in RF last year. I am sure he can play there . He also hit 10 of his 25 HR’s in June. One positive, he hit .275 on the road
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never played in RF last year
Doesn’t have to. RAJ can handle RF just fine.
In my gut – the ol’ infamous gut – I don’t see it happening anyway. I’d just like to have a real power threat from that side of the plate.
I honestly cannot get a handle on which way AA is looking to fill the OF void. Of course, he prefers it that way. Sneaky son of a gun…
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Yes Ber, they all have their warts don’t they? One has to wonder what was the cause of the fall off for Duval. Nagging injury? Being exposed? Fatigue? A hitch in his swing? Failure to make adjustments? Thinking too much? Given the nature of a major league hitter, I am incline to believe it is the latter, after all, he has shown he is a gold glove caliber fielder in the past. One would have to believe spring training will be a very big tell for him.
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Vee, to be sure, I am of the mind that Jeter is looking for a Texiera type haul for Realmuto. Where he screwed up was letting Yelich go so cheap. Stanton was a salary dump plain and simple and to be frank, I still look for the Yankees to try and trade away Gilcarlos at some point.
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I am of the mind that Jeter is looking for a Texiera type haul for Realmuto.
No doubt. But he’s not gonna get what he thinks he should be getting. He might have been a great baseball player, but that doesn’t make him a good businessman. He has handled this ham-handedly from the very beginning. Once JTR let it be known that he would not sign any extension in MIA, Jeter was behind the 8-ball. But instead of maximizing his return quickly, he got greedy and tried to put the squeeze on everyone else. Problem is, all 29 other GMs – including the former player agent – knows that you have very little leverage with an expiring asset.
At some point, and probably in the next 2 weeks, Jeter is going to look out at the landscape of things and realize he doesn’t have 16 teams bidding up on his catcher. He’ll have about 2 remaining. And at that point he’ll have to simply take the best offer he has sitting in front of him.
And it won’t include Kyle Tucker. Forrest Whitley, Mike Soroka or Ozzie Albies. (But it might include Sean Newcomb.)
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I have alot of confidence that Thoppy knows what he’s doing in crafting the 2019 roster. I also am confident that the long stretch of quiet does not mean a long stretch of inactivity… just a well-known sense of stealth.
My one concern is that he is overplaying his hand in waiting out JTR, and letting some other needs go unanswered. Not that he doesn’t intend to answer them, but it almost seems like the JTR deal must come first with the rest to follow like dominoes. And thus it’s all being held up. That doesn’t disregard JD and Mac, but there are other needs… like RF and a veteran starter.
But I’m just a guy sitting behind a keyboard in the foothills of the beautiful N GA mountains. What do I know?
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As we all are Vee, except I am not in the foothills of the Georgia mountains but we all have to be somewhere until we are not…
We are not alone in playing where is Realmuto or Kluber or Bumgardner or any of a ssortment of good players still on the market. I think we all would like to have the trade market be in the rear view mirror so we have one less unknown to deal with.
I’m hoping all of the Braves are getting back to work now that the Holidays are drawing to a close, we have seen that those who put things off until spring training will be behind the eight ball from the get go. Now that is not to mean they should wear themselves out, just stay in baseball shape so they are not starting from square one in February.
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We are not alone in playing where is Realmuto or Kluber or Bumgardner or any of assortment of good players still on the market.
Prediction? I see JTR coming here, I see Kluber in LAD, I see Bumgarner staying put until the July deadline, I see Manny in pinstripes, and I see Bryce in historic Wrigley Field… which will start a whole new cascade of rumors when they have to dump some current payroll to accommodate Harper.
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I would not be opposed to JHey returning to the Braves for a reduced rate, no team is going to take on his inflated salary but methinks half price would be a good deal for both the Cubs and the Braves.
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For the right price, I could live with him too. His LH bat fits, and a return home- and Kevin Seitzer – might help. At worst he could pair with Adam Duvall.
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This was suggested by Alan Carpenter, Tomahawk Take:
Braves get Heyward and catcher Willson Contreras, the latter of which is not even arbitration-eligible yet. Cubs get Tyler Flowers, which is a wash offensively for them.
Cubs still have former Brave Victor Caratini to catch with Flowers
Net salary swap is ~$13+ million more for Atlanta; Cubs that much less.
Sets up a possible future catching tandem of Contreras and Contreras once the younger brother reaches the majors.
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Kluber to the Dodgers…. The rich get richer don’t they? Still, Kershaw is no longer the unbeatable guy he has been in the past.
For the life of me, I cannot understand why the Indians would want to part with their best pitcher. They cannot be that destitute.
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https://www.westernjournal.com/l/slarson/baseball-star-moves-mom-tears-pays-parents-loans-debts-christmas/?ff_source=facebook&ff_medium=westernjournalism&ff_campaign=manualpost&ff_content=2018-12-27
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Gil, I am confuzzled….full of confuzzlement…I can’t find info that Kluber has been traded to Dodgers.
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I did not say he was, sorry by I guess my post was confusing. Talking heads were predicting Kluber would be traded to the Dodgers, Harper would sign with the Cubs. I will be more careful in the future.
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I’m not sure whether to gasp or laugh.
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Bowman advocates patience for fans and caution for the Braves, noting:
In some ways, it feels like the time is right for the Braves to use their prospect and financial resources to strike a big deal. But if that big deal is not the right deal, you run the risk of looking at it 14 years later and wondering if winning that one additional division title with J.D. Drew was worth sacrificing possibly a decade-plus worth of Adam Wainwright’s value.
Ouch. He had to go there…
I look forward to a whole year, or at least a major portion of the year, of Mike Soroka. He’s the real deal, folks.
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More Bowman:
If Craig Kimbrel’s market drops to the point where he is willing to accept a three-year deal, the Braves may entertain a reunion if they still have the funds necessary to pay the closer who will likely receive a yearly salary of at least $18 million.
IMO, it’s too much for a closer. In this day of pitch counts and multi-inning relievers, the closer per se is a relatively lesser commodity. And often times, getting through the toughest part of the lineup late happens in the 7th or 8th… not always the 9th. To me, it’s more important to have a complete bullpen, not just one dominant guy that might not even get up in the 9th because the team lost the lead in the 7th or 8th. Given last year’s emergence of Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle and Dan Winkler, added to AJ Minter and Shane Carle, plus the likely presence of swing guys like Max Fried or possibly Luiz Gohara, I don’t see the need to shell out that much for Kimbrel, as much as I love the guy. I’d prefer to make a lesser investment in a veteran like David Robertson or Adam Ottavino. (And I didn’t forget about Viz… I just don’t find him dependable.)
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… and I completely forgot about Darren O’Day, who we got along with Kevin Gausman but was injured. He’s supposed to be 100% by Spring Training.
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Yes Vee, there is always that… A cautionary tale if there ever was one. The same could be true of the Texeria trade with Texas. I’m sure the Marlins want Riley, Soroka, Pache and Acuna… oh, and Flowers as a throw in… The Braves have not yet seen enough of any of these kids to know their full potential. There is always an element of luck involved.
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Another guy to not sleep on is youngster Jacob Webb, whom the Braves chose to protect from this year’s Rule 5 draft. He’s a guy that could be in ATL sooner than later as a late inning setup guy.
The hard throwing 25-year-old RH appeared in 21 games for AA Mississippi before being bumped to AAA Gwinnett for 30 more.
The poop:
Webb was an infielder at tiny Tabor College, an NAIA program in Kansas, when a lack of production moved him to the mound full-time. He became Tabor’s ace and landed in the 18th round of the 2014 Draft, the first time any player from that program had been drafted. After a solid debut that summer, he needed Tommy John surgery in 2015, and when he returned in 2016, he moved into the bullpen where, after shaking off the rust, he’s been able to move quickly, reaching Triple-A in 2018.
Webb is now a prototypical two-pitch power pitcher. A fastball that sat in the low 90s back during his Tabor days is now comfortably up in the 95-96 mph range in shorter stints with a sneaky quick arm, which adds deception. His slider can be a little inconsistent, but when it’s on, it shows very good depth. He misses a ton of bats, but command has been an issue from time to time, though he improved in that regard a bit in 2018.
His power stuff means he doesn’t have to have pinpoint command. He’s definitely put himself on the radar as a viable bullpen piece for the big league staff with how he’s returned from that 2015 elbow surgery. He’s closed games in the Minors, but his ceiling is probably as a setup man in Atlanta.
It’s good to have alot of options. I’d still like to add a veteran for the 9th inning, but not at $18M.
Cody Allen is still available, and for probably for about 2 years / $8M per year. I can live with that.
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(And I didn’t forget about Viz… I just don’t find him dependable.)
Viz’s reliability is totally dependent on his shoulder being right. Of course that could be true for 99% of all pitchers in baseball.
I think the Braves will make their play prior to the start of spring training. If not, well, I guess we will just have to wait and see.
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I wonder if AA has ulcers from worrying about this stuff everyday? One wrong move and you could be on the move and not in a good way…
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If I don’t stop checking in on every baseball writer I have bookmarked multiple times every hour, I will have ulcers..
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Happy New Year fellow Stuffians… 🙂 We survived another one…
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https://goo.gl/images/kEUPhx
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Major format failure to start the new year…
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Strike 2
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Couldn’t get it how I like it. Had to go through a major work around just to get to this point.
Oh well…
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This would have been much easier…
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LOL… Okay, we get your point. Personally, I was being lazy but I am old so there is that…
One thing I noticed is that no one worked on making any trades last night and this will be another short work week for those folks who are gainfully employed. For me, well, it will be another week.
Back in the day when I was in the employ of the Evil Empire, I hated the first of the year because all the pointee haired bosses would return full of piss and vinegar and refreshed and wanting to crack the whip on us lowly peons. Now I just hope that they don’t do something stupid and cause my stock shares to tank…
Okay, enough reminiscing, time to get serious and sign Harper and trade for Kluber and Realmuto while fleecing everyone and keeping all of our top thirty prospects. I know, the likelihood of that happening is pretty dang near zero but if you read what some of the geniuses on the net have to say, you would wonder why Thoppy has not traded the Jackson twins for a ACE.
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Happy New Year, friends! May it be blessed!
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Out of order here…
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Not proof of a deal but the circumstantial evidence is tremendous… 🙂
Now maybe the Yankees will trade Stanton to the Braves at a discounted rate… 🙂
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By the way, you do realize the above post is how you create rumors on the internet…
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Happy New Year everyone! Sure didn’t expect to see so many posts over the last few days…
so, can we make the Bulldogs honorary Braves? Guess they shouldn’t have flapped their mouths so much about what an insult it was to play a team ranked 15th, and how they were going to make a point about how good they were…
Oh well…I don’t follow them, but I know a lot of bulldog fans…I know the feeling when a team seems like it’s the best team, but doesn’t prove it at the end of the season…do you all know that feeling? 😛
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As a life long Va Tech fan I know the feeling only too well.
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I know the feeling when a team seems like it’s the best team, but doesn’t prove it at the end of the season…
UGA had a great team this season, and IMO were worthy of a top 4 spot when the regular season ended. But when Notre Dame was gifted the playoff spot instead – BTW, they were predictably destroyed by Clemson – it changed everything.
First, when Defensive Coordinator Mel Tucker was hired as the new head coach at the University of Colorado, he was allowed to leave the team prior to the Sugar Bowl. Had UGA been in the playoff bracket, that would not have happened. And losing the DC is a big deal… as was evidenced by the poor play on that side of the ball, especially in the 1st quarter.
Second, Jim Thorpe Award winner Deandre Baker, the consensus best defensive back in the country, chose to skip the game in preparation in anticipation of being drafted high in the 1st round of the NFL draft. He chose that path to protect against injury that could potentially cost him millions of $$. He was on record stating that had UGA been on the playoff he would NOT have skipped the game. His absence was definitely felt.
And of course, it did appear that the team just simply was not focused, especially in the 1st half. The 2 uncharacteristic fumbles, several dropped passes, several poor passes… they just didn’t look like the same team that dominated Alabama for 3 quarters last month. Maybe if Kirby had not had to split time as the defacto DC, he could have better prepared the team overall.
Oh… it also didn’t help that their leading tackler and defensive leader linebacker D’Andre Walker missed the game with injury. Of course, all teams deal with injury. That’s just part of it. That would not have changed.
I say all that to say this…
Texas won the game. Period. No excuses. But I would have liked to have seen UGA with their season long DC in place and their Jim Thorpe Award winner on the field. That would have happened if UGA had played Clemson in a more meaningful game.
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… and that’s all I’ll say about that. Football season is over for my Dawgs. Back to more important things…
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Yes indeed Vox, they did look flat. Texas opened up that can of whoop-ass Georgia was supposed to have brought.
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OK… so while we were looking the other direction, a few minor signings occurred, along with one that has impact elsewhere:
Jeff Passan, now at ESPN, reported this yesterday: Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi agreed to a deal with the Seattle Mariners late Monday night, league sources familiar with the deal told ESPN
He continued with the details: The base deal is for three years and $43 million. Following the 2021 season, the Mariners can trigger a four-year, $66 million extension. If they decline to do so, Kikuchi either can trigger a $13 million option for the 2022 season or elect free agency. The deal guarantees $56 million and can be worth as much as $109 million.
So why is that significant? First, the deal boils down to $14M per season average over the 4 guaranteed years. And if an unproven pitcher who has never even tossed a salad on this side of the big pond can get 4 years @$14M per year, what will Dallas Keuchel get? Thus far, DK (and Scott Boras) have been insisting on a 5 year deal, and that 5th year seems to be the sticking point that has him still on the market. Of course, being the last top pitcher available is not a bad thing. And when he finally accepts a 4 year deal, you can bet it will be for alot more than a $14M per year average. Look more for like $20M… and maybe more. And not from Atlanta.
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V, I had just heard bits and pieces of what you mentioned. (like the coach leaving before the Sugar Bowl which seems like a “clown move” no matter what the reason was) and the star player not playing, but I didn’t know that it was because it was not a playoff game…thanks for the 411
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The next best starting pitcher remaining on the FA market after DK?
Uh… that’s probably Gio Gonzalez. He pitched to an unsightly 4.21 ERA last season, but he did chew up 171 innings. I’ll pass, thanks. I’d rather just keep Julio than go that direction. Julio’s 3.94 ERA came over 175.2 IP, so it’s no improvement in any area… except for maybe dingers allowed. Julio’s 26 far outpaced Gio’s 17. Then again, Julio’s 26 outpaced most pitchers…
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Trade targets:
Corey Kluber? I fear the pricetag is Realmutian.
Madison Bumgarner? I doubt he’s traded before July.
Zack Greinke? Should be named Brink-y, as in Brink’s truck. To much $$ unless ARI is wiling to eat alot.
Robbie Ray? No thanks. He’s what Sean Newcomb might become with an expected step forward in 2019. And Newk is already here.
Marcus Stroman? No thanks. Can’t stay healthy.
Sonny Gray? Maybe. He might be a wash with Julio, although each might benefit from a change of scenery.
Mystery pitcher? Ding ding. When the dust settles prior to Feb. 15, I bet we’ll all say, “I didn’t see that one coming.” Thoppy is good at that.
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A lot of ACE money being thrown at non ACE pitchers. Of course it may just be the “new normal” … I remember back in 1981 (were either of you born yet?) when I bought a new car for the first time since ’73. The price of a car had jumped from $3500 to $10,000 for basically the same car. I think that has happened to the Braves. The price has gone up while they were in the middle of their rebuild. I think it’s called old people’s syndrome. You know, when you can remember working for a buck an hour and suddenly the same job pays $15 and that is low end.
I doubt Liberty Media still charges 1999 prices for whatever they sell. if the Marlins were sold for just shy of one billion dollars, how much do ya’ll thing the Atlanta franchise is worth?
So, Atlanta and as a extension her fans will have to get use to the New York prices being charged because that is just going to be what it takes to win consistently in today’s game.
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Sadly, until the Braves can shed that albatross TV deal and get a modern pocket-lining pact, they’ll be dragging stones like Jacob Marley (final Christmas reference of the season). As successful as The Battery has been financially for the organization, it still carries alot of construction cost, so its profit margin is still tempered by those remaining debts. It certainly helps, but it’s not the whole answer.
The TV deal is the key, and has been since the Yankees launched the YES Network.
It’s no coincidence that the Braves are owned by a media corporation. They are playing the long game knowing that a cash cow is on the horizon after 2027.
Mark Meltzer, Atlanta Business Chronicle in 2016: [Liberty Media CEO Greg] Maffei said while sports broadcasting star ESPN has to deal with the potential losses from cable watchers cutting their cords and ESPN having to deliver skinnier TV bundles, the Braves can hope for better revenue once their 20-year local TV rights deal expires in 2027. Maffei said it is “the longest-lived deal in baseball.”
Baseball’s national TV revenues, of which the Braves get a portion, also are growing, Maffei said, thanks in part to Braves Chairman Terry McGuirk, a former Turner Broadcasting CEO who sits on the sport’s media rights committee.
“So the opportunity I think looks good for national, but particularly looks good for us in local given that we have this long-lived contract which is less attractive than many of our peers,” Maffei said.
Translation: They own the flower and are simply waiting for the bud to blossom.
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IMO, Tulo’s signing with the Yankees does not take them out of the Manny market. They’re only paying Tulo the league minimum. Heckuva guy to have as a backup plan.
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Speaking of Jeff Passan, his new piece for ESPN has a couple of interesting notes:
Among [pitchers] who are clearly available, Sonny Gray might head the list. The number of trade iterations around Gray this winter has been staggering. There was traction, at one point, on a three-way deal among the Yankees, Rangers and Braves that would have sent Gray to Atlanta, a prospect to Texas and infielder Jurickson Profar to New York. The Rangers wound up shipping Profar to Oakland in another three-way deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Cincinnati Reds showed significant interest in Atlanta Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, according to sources, and though talks stagnated and eventually they dealt for outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, Cincinnati still doesn’t have a center fielder.
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And before we all let out a collective groan over Sonny Gray’s name being mentioned again, maybe this additional note on Passan’s ESPN colleague Sarah Langs is something we should consider:
A different venue seems to be exactly what Gray needs, at least based on his pitching results. In his time with the Yankees, he has a 6.55 ERA in 88 innings pitched at home, with a 1.70 WHIP, .290 opponents’ batting average and .885 opponents’ OPS. But in 107⅔ innings away from Yankee Stadium, he has a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .223 opponents’ average and .624 OPS against.
It’s a smaller sample, but those road numbers reflect more of the pitcher the Yankees likely expected they were getting in the 2017 trade for three prospects. The Gray they acquired had a 3.42 career ERA to that point, which would’ve been 2.97 if not for his disaster of a 2016 season that included a 5.69 ERA and just 22 starts.
The cold reality is that acquiring an “ace” simply is not realistic this year. Perhaps a stable veteran to anchor the young’uns and to go to the post when called upon (195.2 IP in 2018) might be just as valuable. Well, as long as he doesn’t give up 26 HR’s of course. We already have a guy like that… at least for the moment. If Gray could be this year’s Anibal, albeit with more innings to give, then maybe Folty and Newk – and Soroka – can become home grown aces.
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One more stick to stir the pot before I turn my full attention toward work:
If the Yankees were to receive IF Jurickson Profar from TEX in the proposed 3-way deal involving Gray, what would that look like from the Braves directly?
I’ll just let that one sit and stew for a while…
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OK… enough stewing. My initial thought went to Johan Camargo, as the Yanks likely would have used Profar as a Super Utility man. But I reconsidered and went more toward Charlie Culberson, as I’ve heard they had already shown some interest in Charlie already.
But…
With their signing of Tulo, that kind of fills the spot that Charlie or Johan would have occupied… the guy who holds the place for Didi Gregorious. According to those who follow the Bombers, they are now focused on improving their bullpen. To that end, who would they target on the Braves roster in a swap for Sonny Gray?
Again, I’ll just let that one sit and stew for a while…
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already shown some interest in Charlie already
Ugh. I hate it when I do that…
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Yes, that short left field porch does Sonny Gray no favors. Neither does not having that convenient 9 hole in the order to look for outs.
So, what is to be made of Julio’s perchance for giving up gopher balls? Lack of velocity, lack of confidence? I think it is not having a go to pitch for strike three. How many times have we watched Julio get two strikes on a batter only to see said batter foul off pitch after pitch until Julio makes a mistake? I don’t have an answer on how to fix the problem, only that I recognize what that problem is, and if I can see it, you can bet every major league team can see it too.
And please… Not Gio …. The guy is done….
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Two points made by Joel Sherman today may have some relevance to the Braves.
If NYY do not land Machado, I would expect they would still try to enlist a Hechavarria type who would allow them to keep Torres at 2b and provide defense to rest Tulo plus play late for Andujar.
Yanks still have to trade Gray and I think part or the consideration there is how Machado/free agent relievers work out. If they solve issues in free agency, NYY then use Gray to get prospects. If not they use Gray to help with the 25-man roster. I suspect much of this plays out this week or next as we likely find out where Machado, Ottavino and possibly Britton land.
How does this relate to the Braves? Well, I take this to mean that the Yanks won’t move Gray until they settle their flirtation with Manny. If he ends up in pinstripes, their focus shifts 100% to bullpen. If not, then they might come sniffing after Johan or Charlie.
Regardless, Sherman states in matter-of-fact fashion that they “have to trade Gray”, and they could just aim for prospects alone.
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Recent comments on Sirius XM radio by Rays OF Tommy Pham, who was traded in mid-season to Tampa from St. Louis:
“It sucks going from playing in front of a great fan base to a team with really no fan base at all. St. Louis, they’re one of the few teams to where day in and day out they have 40,000 fans at every game.
“That’s something that I miss, because even here in the Dominican [where he’s playing winter ball] they have a strong fan base for the team I’m playing for. Their fans are very supportive, they’re loud. And the Rays? They just don’t have that.
“Do I think something has to happen, whether it be a new ballpark, maybe a new city? I think so. Because if you have a team that’s going to be winning 90-plus games, competing in [the American League East], and you don’t have any fan support, that’s a huge problem.”
Yowser. 😯
Hmmm… maybe he’ll suddenly be on the trading block. I’ll take him.
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Shades of Dave Justice methinks… 🙂
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HA! Reading Mark Bowman’s latest opine on the Braves 2019 outfield options, he appears about as clueless as the rest of us..
https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/examining-braves-2019-outfield-options/c-302315600
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Tommy Pham is just speaking truth to power…or somethin’ 😉 its got to suck to play in Tampa or Miami….He’s a gamer, I too wouldn’t mind him here.
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Gil, yep….only Bowman gets paid to not have a clue 😛
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Nicholas Castellanos….all we hear is that he’s terrible defensively. But, he was in Right, and it was his first season in the outfield. I do NOT trust defensive metrics. “they” said Adam LaRoche was a below average defender, and were not all that kind to Mark Texiera…I mean come on!
so, can he improve to an average Left fielder? He’s 26….
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With Ender and RAJ, you can afford to fudge a little with the other guy.
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I was saying, he was in Right, so he clearly has a good arm…not sure about accuracy, but he was a 3rd baseman before, so he has an arm..
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David Robertson has agreed to a two-year deal with the Phillies that guarantees him at least $23 million.
Another one off the boards…
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And they got a good one. That’s a big move for them.
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Pretty much what we have all surmised. Miami could not have possibly gummed up this whole thing any worse if they had tried too.
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Unless the Marlins re-evaluate their position on Realmuto, my suggestion to the Braves is just wait until he becomes a free agent and then sign him as a free agent if you still think he is worth it. Of course by that time, the Braves may have already found their solution.
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I’m ready to just move on and invest in OF and pitching. If Mac and Flow don’t look like they can get us through 162, we can still make a trade before July 31.
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Let’s just blow the whole wad on Bryce and call it a day. 😀
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Looks like the general consensus is that the market will continue to creep for everyone until Manny and Bryce land with their new teams… and for the Braves more relevant is Bryce, as he will set the remaining OF market for both FA and trades.
Speaking of Bryce, I heard an interesting point made on him yesterday. The commentator opined that if he signed with the ChiSox, he alone would revive baseball on the south side and they would sell out games consistently through the duration of his deal. Not only that, he would become a selling point for future FA’s as well.
Is it crazy to wonder what a real baseball “superstar”, for whatever reason perceived, could have the same effect in Atlanta? And what if he and Acuña were in the same lineup and OF for the foreseeable future?
Would a hypothetical signing of Bryce Harper make the Braves the new favorite in the NL East? (And at no cost of highly valued prospects.)
It’s highly unlikely, of course. Maybe not completely out of the realm of possibility, but highly unlikely.
Still…
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Braves have somewhere in the neighborhood of $20M-$30M left to spend this offseason. Bryce alone will command an average $30M per season. But what’s to say you can’t backload the deal a bit to take some of the hit into the next few years when we will once again have alot of room to work?
And there’s also the possibility of trading Darren O’Day, who is owed $9M this season himself. I know he’s counted on as a veteran presence for the bullpen, but perhaps instead of Fried or Gohara in relief, it could be Fried and Gohara at a much more payroll friendly rate.
Just spitballin’…
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One more thing and I’ll go to work…
I read on a blog yesterday that there is a perception that the Braves have to address their bullpen, and that it is a serious weakness going into 2019.
I wholeheartedly disagree.
First, the squad they finished the year with actually made a pretty decent unit. I won’t detail it, but there was a pretty nice mix of young and old. We’re losing veteran Brad Brach, but gaining veteran Darren O’Day, who should be just as good if not better. Winkler and Biddle will be a year older and more experienced. Newcomer Chad Sobotka will have an entire year to show what he gave us September. And then there’s AJ Minter, who was not 100% physically late last year, who will also be a year older and fully healthy.
The big question mark comes with Viz, who should be healthy as far as we know. What can we expect from him? When he’s on, he’s really good.
I’ve typed many times that I’d like to add one more veteran to the mix, but at the same time I’m very comfortable going into 2019 with the pitchers we have knowing that the bullpen can be supplemented with a mix of talented youngsters that really have nothing else to prove by starting in AAA.
In 2019, the traditional bullpen recipe of a long man, a coupe middle relievers, a couple setup men and a closer has gone by the wayside. The new formula says to have a handful of swingmen and a handful of guys to mix and matchup from innings 7 through 9. If you have a hammer for the 9th, that’s fine. But teams have learned that sometimes the 8th inning can be higher leverage depending on where the opponent’s lineup falls.
I think we have 4 guys that can handle high leverage innings in Viz, Minter, Wink and Biddle. And I think Jonny can come in and get that one tough lefty out. And I think Carle and Fried are good middle innings pitchers. That doesn’t even take Darren O’Day into account.
Do we need Craig Kimbrel? Do we need another reliever?
IMO, we do not. The bullpen should be the last thing on the list. The bullpen should be what AA supplements if he has nothing else to spend payroll $$ on. I think the Braves have much more pressing needs elsewhere. I think the Braves better find an OF or Adam Duvall will be the starting LF on opening day.
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Just move the team already. I’ll bet Nashville would welcome them. I know Montreal would.
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Of course, I forgot that Portland is already constructing a MLB stadium, even without a team.
Still, given the college success of Vanderbilt’s baseball program, you’d think Nashville would be a great location. The city supports its NFL Titans and NHL Predators fully, and currently is home to the Nashville Sounds, the AAA affiliate of the Texas Rangers.
Both will be under serious consideration for the next round of expansion, but which could take a team right away and have a MLB ready facility?
That might be Montreal…
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Good morning guys, I’m having trouble seeing this morning so I’ll be short. Braves have the one thing that is critical for a championship caliber team… pitching depth.
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Of course the Braves would loath to lose market share to a franchise that close to Atlanta.
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Just read this, courtesy of Forbes magazine’s Eric Macramalla:
The reason the Rays aren’t relocating ties into the team’s stadium deal with the city. The Rays never signed a traditional lease. Rather, it signed a Use Agreement, which prevents the team from moving out of Tropicana Field and calls for potentially catastrophic monetary damages should the Rays abandon the stadium before its deal is up in 2027. This is in stark contrast to a traditional lease, where a tenant owes the landlord what’s left on that lease after breaking it.
On top of that, the Use Agreement provides the city with the right to ask for something called specific performance, which in a nutshell means that it could ask a court to force the Rays to stay and play at Tropicana Field. However, this is generally a very difficult thing to get at a court to grant when damages can be quantified, so that remedy seems unlikely.
So that takes us back to the city suing for money – and lots of it – should the Rays fail to honor its agreement. It’s not clear what that amount would be, but the ask is likely to be exorbitant. The city could argue that it should be paid in excess of $100 to $200 million as compensation for the loss of the team and the intangibles that come with an MLB team in a city. Some of these are outlined in the Use Agreement, and include compensation for things like the “creation of new jobs, local employment opportunities, increased business prospects, direct and indirect tax revenues, enhancement of the community’s image and promotional opportunities, and an improvement in life and local pride of the citizenry”.
Well, if the monetary penalty is tied to “local pride of the citizenry”, it would appear they could leave for about a buck and a half.
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Who doesn’t love a day at the ol’ ballpark?
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Pretty sure Scott Boras client, Carter Stewart, did not enroll at EFS JC for their stellar academic program… just saying…
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By enrolling in a JUCO, he is eligible for the 2019 draft.
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Just saying… so, do you think he will actually attend any classes?
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An opine on the possibility of trading Christian Pache for a mystery player…
While Braves fans are taught to fall in love with every prospect by the publicity department, the truth is, they are all still prospects. One in one hundred will ever make it as a front line player in the major leagues while the rest will top out in Double A or Triple A and still others maybe as a utility guy. Still, unless you are dealing with a dufus and their are few of them still around, you are going to have to trade quality to get quality.
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Truth.
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Let’s not forget also that Drew Waters is about to surpass him in the eyes of those in charge. Waters may not be as elite a defender, but is still above average. And his bat is far superior to Pache. And he may be only 1 year behind Pache in development if that. Also, with Ender under contract through ’21 (with a ’22 option) and Acuña here for as long as we can keep him, we aren’t in need of an elite CF anyway.
It only makes sense.
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My initial reaction was: Where was AntMan on this??
Then I remembered 2 important details…
First, I’m understanding that AA is looking for a LH bat to help balance a RH dominated lineup.
Second, and more importantly, I also think AA is aiming somewhat higher. And for that, I am thankful.
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Ben Chase at Tomahawk Take makes reference to a piece by Braves beat writer Gabe Burns in Baseball America recently:
A quick note from the [William] Contreras piece was that Mike Soroka was back to full velocity in instructional league. Soroka had been noted in a couple of reports to have been at or near full health as the season closed in 2018, but this report definitely is positive for certainly the pitcher who should be the front-runner in a big battle for the 5th spot in the rotation as the team is currently constructed.
That’s great news.
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Excellent article here regarding the Braves and Rangers as potential trade partners. Sums up my thoughts/feelings very well:
https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/1/5/18168208/atlanta-braves-texas-rangers-potential-trade-partners
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TALKING CHOP has a suspect in trade talks, one CRISTIAN PACHE who is supposed to be included in exploratory trade talks with several teams. The prime reason is not his glove, but his lagging bat, something I pointed out during the course of the 2018 campaign and here after the season’s end. Evidently many BRAVES scouts and coaches believe his offense will not play up in the majors.
I think the jury still out on that subject, and it seemed there was some improvement after he was in the Southern League for a period. PACHE will be 20 next season, too early to make a final determination in my judgement, but I don’t see him the way our coaches do of course. His defense and arm are first rate, and without question will propel him to the majors.
But the club already has ACUNA on hand, and they see satisfied with INCIARTE’s play, and his potential going forward. He’s controlled until 2022.
ADAM DUVALL has above average defense, but his bat fell apart this season. I certainly can understand why the BRAVES’ management don’t want to hand him the keys to RF in 2019.
Platooned with a resigned NM fir one year in right might work as a last resort. I’m sure NICK won’t see it that way however. I imagine he wants a two-year deal at the very least especially after the results of this season. His second-half fade might be alleviated by a platoon with DUVALL until DREW WATERS puts in an appearance probably in 2020. But that’s contingent on DUVALL’s bat, a scary proposition at this point.
Making do until PACHE or WATERS put in an appearance will be a tricky proposition. One reason GM’s earn the big bucks. And probably why PACHE has been rumored to be on the move in 2019.
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Good morning Gordon, we have missed your input. I know you have been signing Drew Waters praises for a while now.
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Hey GIL. Went off to Eastern Europe on an 11 day tour of PRAGUE, BUDAPEST, and VIENNA. The Europeans real do up Christmas.
Back here, the die of our future outfield will be cast in this next season. If PACHE makes it to the 2019 season as a BRAVE, MISSISSIPPI will clearly define his future here. If the bat suddenly comes alive in MISSISSIPPI, management will breathe a big sigh of relief, and plug him into the 2020 outfield. If not, well….there’s WATERS.
And if not, a platoon with INCIARTE could always be in the cards because PACHE has no peer defensively.
If WATERS lives up to what management thinks of his offense, another ACUNA could be in the offing.
I think it all depends on PACHE’s bat in 2019 as to the long-term future of ATLANTA’s outfield.
An outfield of ACUNA, INCIARTE, PACHE, and WATERS in 2020 sounds awfully good to me.
Around the infield, RILEY, ALEXANDER, CAMARGO, ALBIES, and FREEMAN with CONTRERAS and a grizzled vet in the squat should bring lots to cheer about in 2021.
By then, starters and ‘pen should be well settled in. We could be looking at a squad fighting for a WS ring in that year.
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So Braves beat writer Gabe Burns discussed yesterday the current situation with the Braves and 2018 #1 draft pick Carter Stewart. There is more to the story than we have known up to now. I will attempt to summarize…
First, a refresher. The Braves drafted Stewart out of HS with the overall #8 pick in last year’s draft. Unlike all other pro sports, baseball does not allow for teams to perform their own physicals prior to the draft, instead depending solely on medicals provided by the player himself, and sometimes even written by the player himself. Thus, when the Braves drafted Stewart, they were unaware of a wrist injury that the curveball specialist had incurred during his season. That injury was revealed by the Braves staff after Stewart had been drafted and during the negotiation period. This left the Braves very uncomfortable with the pitcher (IMO they had every right to be uncomfortable not only from a physical standpoint, but also from a trust standpoint) who depended on a healthy wrist to generate the plus spinrate he achieved with his breaking ball… the very thing that got him drafted so high.
As a result of this revelation, the Braves were no longer interested in signing him at slot value, instead tendering him only the minimum 40% of slot value that they could offer to be awarded a consolation pick in 2019 for failing to sign him, according to the guidelines as set forth in the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Or did they?
This is now the center of what we now know to be a point of contention. It’s now being reported that right after the falling out with the Braves, Stewart hired Scott Boras as his agent, and the MLBPA filed a grievance against the Braves seeking to have Stewart named a free agent and eligible to be signed by the highest bidder now, and not subject to future drafts. They contend the Braves failed to offer 40% of Stewart’s slot value, or $1,992,280.
And this is the center of the argument: Did the Braves offer 40% of the slot value of the #8 overall pick in 2018?
At stake of course is the consolation pick being the #9 overall pick. The Braves regular first rounder sits at the #21 slot this year, so the #9 pick is significant, especially since they got nothing out of last year’s first rounder. And given the crippling penalties the organization incurred thanks to Coppy-gate, they cannot afford to whiff on high draft picks.
I think it’s an interesting note that Stewart just enrolled in a JUCO for the upcoming academic semester, which is obviously only seen as a baseball season from Stewart’s perspective. He has no interest in actually being a true student/athlete or he would have enrolled at Mississippi State, the D-1 school he had committed to. If his camp felt good about their position, would he have enrolled? Or is he just hedging his bets?
One thing I do know… when Scott Boras is involved, things are never clear. He muddies the water as well as anyone in an effort to benefit from mass confusion. He’s made quite a career from these tactics.
Burns reports that there is no specific timetable for a resolution on the grievance. Personally, I cannot understand this. If the question is whether or not the Braves offered the requisite $1,992,280, it should be fairly cut-and-dry, right? They either did or they did not. That’s the great thing about numbers. They are absolute and not subject to interpretation.
Or are they? When Scott Boras is involved, reason and ration go out the window.
From a fan’s perspective, I look at the big picture and see player deception, Scott Boras, and union involvement and immediately think the worst of the player. But is that fair?
Here are the only absolutes that I objectively glean from this…
The player hid an injury from a prospective drafting team, one that had been in constant contact with him prior to the draft. Those are facts.
The injury was significant and affected the ceiling/floor potential of the prospect. That is fact.
The team discovered the injury after the pick was made and was no longer interested in investing premium money in an uncertain prospect because of medical questions. That is fact.
Stewart was not interested in a lowered bonus amount. That is fact.
The Braves opted to take the safe approach, allowing Stewart to walk away and settling for the compensation pick in 2019 instead. That is fact.
The only real question that needs to be answered is if they followed the established protocol to do so. That is apparently still in doubt.
I cannot believe that an official in a professional sports front office, a person given the responsibility to handle the details in a significant and important duty with regard to the long term health of the organization, would fail to meet a simple and absolute standard in order to achieve an established outcome. Could they? Could someone have dropped the ball in such an egregious manner? And if so, who was the point person who fumbled so badly?
If baseball finds that the Braves did NOT meet that 40% threshold in their offer, someone needs to be fired. Such a critical procedure cannot be handled that poorly.
I’m seriously hoping the grievance is only a red herring precipitated by Boras in his typical scattershot manner in an effort to force the league to give his player something not earned. After all, Boras has everything to gain and nothing to lose. Sadly, Stewart has already lost by becoming a pawn in Boras’ game. If the findings go against him, he then has to play a JUCO season and hope he’s physically able to perform up to 1st round status again. And even if he does, every team will be leery of him based on the events chronicled. We said at the time that his best interest would be to sign for a lowered amount and begin receiving treatment from a major league medical staff – the best that money can buy. Had he done so, he would likely be able to once again generate that elite spinrate. Unless he found the same quality medical treatment on his own, and at his own expense, the chances of him repeating his pre-injury performance this season are not very high.
I wish Carter Stewart success on the field, but not in the hearing chamber. The kid has received a succession of bad advice. Hopefully soon he can start thinking clearly for himself.
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Now to the current offseason shopping and shaping…
In a report I read last night, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi says the Indians are looking for “Chris Sale-level return” for either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer. If you’ll recall, the ChiSox got baseball’s #1 overall prospect in Yoan Moncada, a Top 10 pitching prospect in Michael Kopech, and 2 additional mid-tier IF prospects from the BoSox for Sale.
Good luck with that.
This is merely a symptom of the current condition of teams and agents around the league. Shoot for the moon, wait it out, and finally settle for less. It accomplishes a couple of things. It holds up the market well into the offseason and it puts pressure on GMs who need to get their rosters settled… possibly forcing acquiring teams to overpay. Some will, some won’t. And those that won’t are then pressured in both the mainstream media and social media. After all, we here at the ol’ B&S are somewhat guilty of being impatient with our own GM ourselves.
As of this morning, there is still over 5 weeks before P&CR for spring. That’s still a significant amount of time to get things done. Once the biggest names sign – Manny and Bryce – the rest will begin to fall in line, both in FA and trades.
IMO, the Tribe will keep both Kluber and Bauer. They don’t need to trade either and have nothing to lose by asking a high ransom in return of trade for one, or just simply keeping both.
IMO, the Fish will continue to mishandle the Realmuto situation and drag it out past the point most teams will remain interested. I won’t be surprised to see JTR in their Opening Day lineup. God bless him.
IMO, the Braves will acquire their new RF shortly after Bryce signs and his spurned suitors move on to other business. There are alot of teams that match up with the Braves in terms of pitching/OF needs and surpluses; so it’s not a matter of finding a match, just of determining the best match.
IMO, the Braves will not acquire another starting pitcher, instead going into the season with Julio as the #4 starter behind Folty, Newk and Gausman, with Soroka, Touki and Wright (and dark horse Bryce Wilson) battling for the #5 spot.
IMO, the Braves will add a veteran reliever to add depth to the overall pitching staff and hedge against short outings by their young staff.
IMO, the Braves will make more of a splash in July than they will prior to Opening Day.
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Now watch all of that be disproven later today. 😀
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And now to more immediate concerns…
The deadline date to exchange salary arb figures is this Friday, Jan. 11. The Braves have 7 arb eligible players to deal with being Kevin Gausman, Folty, Viz, Charlie Culberson, Adam Duvall, Dan Winkler, and Sam Freeman.
This is one reason that dragging out OF and pitching acquisitions is harmful to the overall task of putting the 2019 roster together. Adding a bona fide starting OF could result in Duvall being non-tendered. Adding a late inning reliever could result in Viz being non-tendered. Adding any reliever could result in Sam Freeman being non-tendered.
Plus, if the team had its payroll mostly set for 2019, Thoppy might could see his way clear to offering a multi-year deal to Folty and settling that issue once and for all.
I hope that deadline date will also be a motivating factor for all teams to get things going, prompting Manny and Bryce to get signed and allowing the rest of the dominoes to fall.
Friday. Just 4 days away. Big week.
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Just in case anyone wonders (I did), Folty is not represented by Scott Boras.
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#1: I do not blame any player for doing what is best for his own career and livelihood.
#2: I do not begrudge any team or organization for doing the same.
#3: I hate it when the lawyers get involved but it is what it is so we have a lot of animosity built up between players and management because human nature it appears is to get greedy…
Slights and perceived slights, is their really any difference? Sadly, not in the mind of a baseball player. The ego that makes one a great player can also be a ball players worst enemy.
Okay, enough of the soapbox… I sure hope the Braves hitting instructors can fix whatever was wrong with Adam Duval. He did appear to get better towards the end of the season last year. A platoon between him and Markais would not be the worse thing for Atlanta.
What I do not expect to see is for the Braves to trade for a rookie to play in the outfield, they have enough of those already and despite the success of Albies and Acuna last season, it is not normal for a team to go for the gold with more than one rookie in the everyday line up.
So, the only real problem with a such a plethora of young arms on the roster is the number of innings one can reasonable expect them to throw in a season. I guess that is why the adage is to have a reasonable expectation of competing for a championship is you need at least 7 major league capable starters available at the beginning of the season.
My question is who will Julio turn to for advice this season? Erwin Santana provided it in Julio’s early days and we saw Anibal step up last season. Do y’all think anyone is lobbying harder than Julio for Bryce Harper to get out of the NL East?
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A platoon between [Duvall] and Markais would not be the worse thing for Atlanta.
Markakis is not a platoon candidate. It simply will not happen.
First, Nick’s 2018 slash vs. RHP = .304/.379/.450, vs. LHP = .284/.343/.422. Career vs. RHP = .291/.368/.440, vs. LHP = .282/.337/.388. Not enough demonstrable difference to make a platoon feasible.
Adam Duvall career vs. RHP = .230/.283/.455, vs. LHP = .231/.312/.449. I’ll take Markakis, thanks.
Second, Kakes is a guy that will want to play every game. The best you’ll accomplish is to agree to play him 9 out of 10 games, or you won’t get his name on a contract.
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My question is who will Julio turn to for advice this season?
Maybe our new pitching coach Rick Kranitz will actually do his job. 😉
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You know, I say that in jest, but Kranitz was instrumental in Aaron Nola taking a huge step forward in 2018. If it weren’t for the fact that he’s 60, and that up-and-comer 37-year-old Chris Young was being targeted by a number of teams – Braves included – for vacant pitching coach positions, Kranitz would still be up in the City Of Brotherly Shove. He is an under-the-radar major improvement for the Braves in 2019.
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Do y’all think anyone is lobbying harder than Julio for Bryce Harper to get out of the NL East?
Unless he lands here. 😆
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Dansby’s reputation is that he has good hands, but this makes me a little uncomfortable…
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And now for a very amusing diversion. Do yourself a big favor and read through the replies to Heyman’s tweet.
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The trolls are merciless aren’t they… 🙂
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My favorite: “Go Oriolrs”
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Uh? Don’t ask don’t tell???
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Ouch. Another overpay for a guy who wasn’t healthy in 2018. Are teams beginning to panic?
Maybe I am a bit of a conspiracy guy, but I look at this and wonder if the Pale Hose know they’re out of the Manny derby and have now re-directed big money in another direction.
Is a Yankees’ announcement around the corner?
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Ha ha ha… but it wouldn’t surprise me. 😆
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Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe:
According to industry sources, [Marlins CEO Derek] Jeter is letting his baseball ops people know that he needs a major league player back in return for catcher J.T. Realmuto. The feeling is the Marlins got burned in the Christian Yelich deal with the Brewers and they’re going to make sure they get a young, controllable, proven major leaguer in a package for the sought-after catcher. The Astros and Braves seem to be hanging in there on talks that seem endless.
They can wait until Jesus returns. They will not get Ozzie Albies.
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Something else I found interesting from Cafardo:
Overall, the market still has some very good positional players and even All-Star-caliber players. Obviously, the big two are Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. The next tier includes All-Star outfielder Nick Markakis. Also available are former Astros utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, second basemen DJ LeMahieu, Jed Lowrie, Brian Dozier, and Josh Harrison; shortstops Freddy Galvis and Jose Iglesias; third baseman Mike Moustakas; outfielders A.J. Pollock, Avisail Garcia, Adam Jones, and Carlos Gonzalez; and catcher Yasmani Grandal.
“I think everyone is looking for a bargain,” said one prominent agent. “It’s no different than it’s been in the past, in my opinion. We as agents always think we can get multiple years for our players, but it doesn’t work that way anymore. Sometimes you have to settle and hope that a good performance triggers a multiyear deal the following season. That’s what it’s come to.”
While his overall point is worth noting here, what I found most interesting is that he placed ol’ buddy Kakes by himself in a tier just below the two big dogs.
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I want to address something that seems to be blowing up among Braves fans currently, and argue something about it that nobody else seems to be arguing…
I have seen in many, many local and national web sites and blogs referencing a quote from Ken Rosenthal that he made in a recent article in his new capitalist success story The Athletic.
The quote is this:
Information from major-league sources: The Braves’ remaining need is an outfielder, but the team might end up turning to Adam Duvall in left field if the market for a desirable free agent or trade candidate plummets and the team chooses to redirect its money or prospect capital to that player.
And I give that statement a credibility rating of “baloney”. Actually, it’s a bit misleading, but I’m getting ahead of myself.
First, we have to remember that Rosenthal started The Athletic as a pay-to-see web site that has grown into being a catch-all for all major sports in all major cities. But the key here is that it is a pay site. And that’s awesome for him. He’s found a niche that people are willing to pay for and he’s making good coin, hiring good writers, and reaching alot of eyes. Good for him and God bless America.
But he does it for the money. It puts bread on his table. And there is an old adage: Follow the money.
Think about this – how many times has this quote been cited and re-quoted over the last 2 days with a link to Rosenthal’s piece… a piece that sits behind a paywall and requires a subscription to view?
Also think about this… how much real information have we gotten about the Braves this offseason? That’d be nuthin’. So suddenly we get some smoke appearing in front of an information starved fanbase who are being directed to a possible fire that sits behind a paywall. I don’t buy it. Literally.
Now, let’s parse the quote…
First, he didn’t get anything firsthand himself. He’s citing unnamed sources… his infamous sources. He didn’t even cite them as Braves sources. Just “league sources”. I suppose that the now tight-lipped Braves office shared something with another team’s office, who subsequently let it out? R-i-g-h-t…
Second, he states the team’s well established “need”, then conveniently slips the word “might” into his assertion along with a couple of “if” conditions. That’s like me saying, “The Braves need a RF. The team might look to sign Bryce Harper if his price tag drops to a level they are comfortable with.”
Or “I need a truck. I might obtain one if the guy down the street is has a mental breakdown and lets me have his for $10.”
It carries the exact same weight and accuracy as what Rosey wrote.
Something smells here, and it isn’t a juicy tidbit of information. It’s bait. Click-bait.
I haven’t and won’t pay for reading DOB or Rosenthal or anyone else at The Athletic because anything worth noting is repeated across the blogosphere anyway. And quite honestly, I’ve found that I can discover news about the Braves from a myriad of other writers besides DOB… believe it or not. There’s Bowman, Burns, Cafardo, Sherman, Heyman, Passan… and the list goes on, not to mention countless blogs that cite and quote them all. That’s not a slam at The Athletic. It’s just my preference. But I won’t for a minute pretend that something that smacks of click-bait has more credibility than information (or lack thereof) from a host of other writers who post information for free just because it has Ken Rosenthal’s name attached. Why have Bowman or Burns, two writers who are in Thoppy’s back pocket as much as anyone, not mentioned something along the same lines? Instead, both continue to assert a belief that AntMan will acquire a RF when the market fits his preference.
So just in case I haven’t made my position clear on this, I do not believe that well constructed and well placed “rumor”. It’s nothing but but a worm on a hook. And it smells about as bad.
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It is not often that you see one of the best college football programs in the country get embarrassed but Clemson had some serious ownage of Bama last night. 44-13 and it wasn’t that close. Three opportunities by the Tide met with utter disappointment. For sure, the Tigers left little doubt which team was superior last night.
I must say, it is nice to be able to watch a game where you have absolutely nothing riding on the outcome.
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Gil, that performance by Clemson last night was on of the best overall performances by a team I’ve ever seen. And that’s across all phases of the game. The blocked better, they ran better, the threw better, they caught better, they stuffed the run better, they defended the pass better, they caused turnovers better, they kicked and received better, they simply did it all better. They even coached better. It was overwhelming and convincing. That Clemson team last night was one of the best college teams I’ve ever seen play the game, at least for that one game.
Oh… and it was very entertaining, too.
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Vee, can’t disagree with your observations on pay to play but I did get a nice tee shirt….
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I don’t think The Athletic is a bad thing. That’s certainly not what I was driving at. I just don’t like a random negative rumor that “triggers” fans for the purpose of creating a response and eliciting clicks (a/k/a more $$) for the author. I see enough of that from the fake-news mainstream media.
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Well, since I don’t require you to pay for my crazy theories, and since no one will cite it anywhere else either, I’ve got one of my own for you to chew on.
I made note yesterday of the White Sox signing Kelvin Herrera and asserting that his somewhat pricey deal probably indicated that they had abandoned their hope of signing Manny Machado. But today… I am making a complete 180 on that statement. In fact, I think they are about to pull off a landmark coup and bring Ber’s favorite player to the South Side and revitalize that once proud, now stagnant franchise.
Why do I say that? Yesterday, they signed OF Jon Jay to a $4M / 1-year deal.
So what’s the big deal with that? Well, couple that with their earlier trade to acquire 1B/DH Yonder Alonso and it becomes a bit more clear. That would be Manny’s brother-in-law Yonder Alonso… who along with the aforementioned Jon Jay make up a trio of close friends/family who train together every offseason in South Fla.
Read here: https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/the-miami-baseball-brotherhood
Excerpt: For Jon, Yonder and I, Miami means family, good friends, culture and … baseball. Each winter we meet up in our hometown and we go to work. We laugh a lot, too, and have fun together. – Manny Machado
Sounds like a pretty close relationship, doesn’t it?
I think The ChiSox could be an exciting team to watch in 2019. They’re certainly working hard to bounce back. I like what they’re doing, and what they are trying to do. I’ll watch ’em.
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BTW- if you didn’t take the time to go there, that link is a great read. Beautiful pics throughout. And it’s free, too. 😉
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Awesome…
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Mish’s updated percentages, for what they’re worth…
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Not saying I buy in, and not saying I’m totally blowing this off either, but I only went back and looked at Mish’s twitter account after seeing a seemingly random post at a fringe discussion board out there in the blogosphere.
A person hiding behind a nondescript user name posted that a big name is about to be acquired and that physicals are being conducted now. He said the announcement would come Weds/Thurs. There was no other info. It was a “drive-by comment”, if you will. This poster has no connection to the team that I am aware of.
I would not have even given it a second thought if Mish, who is based in Miami, had not just posted his tweets.
In all likelihood, this is totally coincidence and there is absolutely nothing to it. Still… a weird coincidence in timing, don’tcha think?
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I thought…I posted last friday at work, but I try not to spend a bunch of time writing at work, for obvious reasons…I think I kept coming back to a long post, never finished it, and closed my browser at the end of the day …D’oh…
anyways, I was chiming in about relievers…I know the braves will probably have to get creative with so very many young arms, and keeping innings down for the year..but, remember how bad Folty was out of the pen? Gohara didn’t seem to do well there either…
Thanks why I don’t like the fact they didn’t spend on a really good bullpen guy, while our rivals did. Remember last spring training(and the year before) how it seemed that our bullpen was going to be fine, and it wasn’t?
Remember last year when our closer went down, and other guys that did great in the 6th, 7th, and 8th, were not so good closing out games? I just don’t like the thought of an “ok” bullpen…someone will be hurt, or not effective as they were last year. (I predict if the Red Sox will be lucky to be a .500 team next year if they let Kimbrel go along with losing Joe Kelly) Every team save one has improved this offseaon, and there’s more time for them to do so too…
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Darrin O’Day? One who is often overlooked… Yes. it is frustrating to see other teams making upgrades but they are chasing right now. Still, I think the Braves are/were talking out of both sides of their mouth when it comes to payroll. BOO HOO… Poor Me… That is the impression I get from the Braves and Liberty when you hear them whine about player salaries.
Yes, I know the Braves are not the Yankees or the Red Sox but they could be… If you are always complaining about being poor, people will believe you are. Not exactly the environment a success will want to be associated with.
No, I don’t want to see the team spend like drunken sailors but no one wants to watch a Triple A team play while being charges $75 for a ticket either…
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And they have gotten some monetary relief on that horrendous TIME-WARNER contract TT hung around our necks when he sold out to JOHN MALONE.
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Gil, too lazy./busy to look above, but I at least meant to mention about O’Day that coming back from T.J he may not have great control first year back…
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O’Day was out last year with a serious hamstring injury, not TJ. His arm should be fine.
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Thanks for the info…
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Yes, there are always concerns about players coming back from injury. That is the thing about putting together a roster. You just never know how it is going to all work out. Injuries, attitudes, old age all have a way of belaying the best laid plans. Just ask the Mets and the Nats how it all worked out for them last season.
To be sure, the Nats had to have been one of the biggest underachievers in 2018.
Truly, I can understand the Braves reluctance to sell their future at the expense of making another Texiera type trade.
So, next week we may be talking about a completely different topic but I suspect not…
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I sit corrected, thanks V. I guess I saw surgery, and it was a pitcher….well, I assumed…you know what happens when one assumes…
He’s also 35-36, sidearmer…great against tough righties, if say Manny B.E. signs with the Phils…
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I think it’s still premature to confuse Ant’s patience with indifference. I do not for a second believe he’s satisfied with the current state of the roster. He’s simply waiting for the market to come back to reasonable.
Whether we want to admit it or not, the deals given out thus far by teams like Philly, whose owner said this to USA Today Sports heading into the offseason: “We’re going into this expecting to spend money and maybe even be a little bit stupid about it,” have mostly exceeded the predictions by most prognosticators. Simply put, there have been a lot of overpays. From Cutch to Nate Eovaldi to Charlie Morton to Kelvin Herrera, the deals have exceeded both annual average value and years guaranteed that most reasonable analysts expected them to receive.
It truly is “stupid” money. AntMan is not going to spend stupid money (nor stupid prospect capital). He’s going to be smart and responsible. Maybe I’m in the monitory, but I prefer it that way. I prefer to look ahead and tell my assets where to go, not look back and wonder where my assets went.
Again, I pose the query: Would we be so critical if he signed JD and Mac this past week instead of early in the offseason? The result is the same even if the optics are not.
There will be a trade made before the season begins. And it could be significant. You cannot hold on to these prized trade chips, the long noted prospect capital, past their point of usefulness. They do have a shelf life, and the time to cash them in is now. Thoppy knows this better than anyone.
I go back to what he said to young Gabe Burns back during the GM Meetings: “The reason we have all these prospects is to win. And sometimes when winning is right in front of you, it’s easy to lose sight of that. We talk about sustained winning, sustained success. Sometimes you need to have success first. We focus so much on the sustainable side that we never get to the success. I do think, my opinion, you have to get to the success part first.”
The Braves will not have success without an additional bona fide starting OF’er. It doesn’t have to be Bryce Harper, but it definitely cannot be Adam Duvall. Ant may not acquire a sexy “ace” type pitcher, and he may not bring in a classic closer, but he will bring in an OF’er. I’m absolutely sure of it. And I do not believe that we will begin the 2019 campaign with the entire contingent of high level pitching prospects we currently hold. AAA Gwinnett cannot deploy an 8 man rotation. Whether it’s for an OF’er or another big name connected to the team, something will happen.
And if I’m wrong, I’ll admit it and serve up the biggest pot of crow you can imagine. But I don’t expect to be looking up any recipes…
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And of course, as we are here discussing AntMan and his strategies and intentions, he’s being interviewed on the Braves flagship radio station. And we are fortunate to have it embedded in this tweet. I’m posting it before listening, so I don’t know if there is anything substantive here, or if it’s alot of fluff. But I’ll know shortly. 🙂
Here it is:
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So as expected, there’s not alot that he can actually say due to tampering rules, which the moderator very clearly lays out before asking direct questions. Still, some good questions were asked, and some good answers were given to the extent they could be answered.
Two things I took away…
First, he spoke of Nick Markakis in a context that made it sound like an offer had been made. Did I misread that?
Second, AA very clearly laid out the hierarchy for making deals. It doesn’t go back to Denver, rather it stops on Terry McGuirk’s desk. Naturally, McGuirk personally has to answer to Denver, so there is that. But AntMan has the latitude to put together a creative deal and get the okey-dokey here locally… not up the chain and across the country. Does that change what he can do? Maybe not, but at least TMc is a guy that is around baseball constantly as part of his executive duties. He’s not an empty suit in a board room gazing at spreadsheets.
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Lets see if VIz signs on the deadline this week or they go to arb. LH A.J. MINTER is their ace in waiting with DARREN O’DAY in the hole.
Long relief/Spot starter
LH MAX FRIED
RH
O’DAY
SOBOTKA
CARLE
VIZCAINO
RH Suspects
WINKLER
WEIGEL
WEBB
JACKSON
LH
DAYTON
BIDDLE
VENTERS
MINTER
LH Suspects
FREEMAN
14 arms for the pen going into ST. I firmly believe the club feels sufficient talent already exists there to be set to start the season.
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I agree that we have enough arms to flesh out an effective bullpen. Obviously I’d like to add an experienced late inning arm, but it’s low on my “To Do” list after OF’er and starting pitcher. Maybe even after add’l bench candidate.
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I do think the Braves will spend at least some moola…I guess I fear more overpaying for J.T. (and I know they don’t want to) and having to face a guy or two that kill us each time…
we definitely need at least 1 more bat, bare minimum. Of course, if Dansby finally has a good all around offensive season that will help tremendously. there is always room for improvement.
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Speaking of JTR, I still have a weird feeling when I think about the trade talks. It’s not a creepy feeling, but more of a feeling of anticipation. There is nothing of any substance to base any expectation on. There are no leaks and there are no hints. Nuthin’.
But when you look at the offseason activities…
Miami must trade JTR before the season starts. If Jeter wants a better return than what he got for Christian Yelich, then he must trade JTR at his peak value, which is before the season begins and truly before Spring Training begins. And as many teams have been mentioned in connection with Miami, some have moved on, some have kicked the tires, some have been merely lukewarm in their interest. Only one team has consistently stayed on the beam. That’d be the Braves.
IMO, the only thing holding up a deal is the still unrealistic demands from the other side. Once they eventually back off Ozzie Albies, which they will have to do at some point, the talks can get serious.
They say they want a ML ready player back. If they can’t have Ozzie, they’ll want Austin Riley. He is about as close to ready as he’ll get. They’ll want one of our prized pitchers and have previously asked for Mike Soroka. That wont happen. They’ll ask for Ian Anderson. That shouldn’t happen. They’ll pivot to Kyle Wright. That will hurt, but could happen. They’ll need a replacement catcher, so they’ll get Flow. And they may want one more prospect to sweeten the deal, so we can toss in Alex Jackson.
So Riley, Wright, Flow and Ajax. It’s a big price, but I think it’s about right for the best catcher in the game and a guy you’d want to guide a young pitching staff and hit behind Freddie for at least 2 more years.
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So you add JTR, who will make about $6M this season. You can then re-sign Markakis at about $8M per season for 2 years and you’re still under budget.
Then you trade for Sonny Gray who is projected to earn about $9M in his final year of arb, giving up 1 high level prospect (Kolby Allard maybe?), and trade away Julio Teheran and his remaining $11M commitment for a pair of lower level prospects (to pitching starved HOU maybe?) to help flesh out that depleted part of the prospect pipeline. You gain about $2M in payroll space, help balance a top heavy farm system, and give 2 change-of-scenery candidates some greener pasture for 2019.
You’ve addressed all the stated top priority needs, stayed under budget, maintained a good youth/veteran mix, aided the long term farm system health, and put a pretty darn good 2019 roster together.
And you keep payroll flexibility to be able to add help at the trade deadline.
Nothing to it. All in a day’s work.
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Lineup: RAJ, JD, Freddie, JTR, Nick, Ozzie, Ender, Dansby
Bench: Mac (Folty’s personal catcher), Johan, Charlie, Duvall
Rotation: Folty, Newk, Gaus, Gray, Soroka
Bullpen: AJ, O’Day, Venters, Wink, Biddle, Carle, Touki, Fried
(Somewhere in there I’ve either traded Viz or non-tendered him.)
Johan can regularly spell JD, Dans, and Ozzie and occasionally spell Freddie and get plenty of playing time.
I think I can win with that lineup and play into October.
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V, I still don’t know why you want to DFA the guy that had a 2.89 ERA in 2017, and 2.11 in 38 innings last year.
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Talking about Viz? I have 4.8 million reasons to trade a guy who has experienced recent shoulder issues when I have younger, cheaper alternatives and a better use for his projected salary.
But it’s not just about the $$.
Viz has a career walk rate of 4.1 per 9 IP. That’s hideous for a late inning reliever and the prime reason I never have confidence in him when he enters the game.
Combine that with the money it will cost to keep him and I’d just as soon move on.
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And another gentle reminder that the arb deadline is in 2 days. We have 7 guys eligible. I’m listing them with their projected 2019 salaries as projected by MLBTR:
Kevin Gausman – $9.2MM
Mike Foltynewicz – $5.5MM
Arodys Vizcaino – $4.8MM
Adam Duvall – $3.1MM
Dan Winkler – $1.6MM
Sam Freeman – $1.5MM
Charlie Culberson – $1.4MM
I think Viz and Sam Freeman are non-tender candidates. I believe Duvall could be as well, especially if the Braves had their starting OF in the fold already. Right now he’s just major disaster insurance.
I’d like to see the team come to agreement on all these other guys and avoid the whole ugly arb process altogether. And I’d like to see Folty given a long term deal and entrenched as a top-of-the-rotation Braves pitcher for the next 4-5 years. Let’s take Viz’s $4.8M + Sam’s $1.5M + Folty’s own $5.5M and cover Folty’s shiney new $12M per year deal.
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One more comment and I then must get back to my paying job…
Imagine that Washington, after all the splashy moves it has already made, brings back Bryce Harper as well.
And then imagine Philly, after making a few splashy moves itself, reacts by spending their “stupid money” on Manny.
I’m not one to advocate “reacting” to what other teams do, but you do have to at least try to keep up. We may have to bite a hard bullet and make our own splash in the trade market to stay in the NL East title conversation.
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The video of the interview with Thoppy that I posted earlier today was only a portion of the full interview. The audio of that is here:
https://omny.fm/shows/cellini-and-dimino/alex-anthopoulos-braves-gm-in-studio
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There is alot more information here than was in that initial video link…
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Just finished listening to it all. He was alot more candid than I imagined, even if not specific.
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Shelby Miller has passed a physical and signed a deal with TEX. I hope he has a big year with them. More importantly, I hope he has a healthy year with them.
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V, Viz was throwing 99 in the playoffs, so I assume his shoulder is fine. Didn’t Mike Soroka have repeated shoulder issues, to the point they shut him down for the year? I know he’s a kid, but still…shoulder issues at 20-21.
If the braves DFA him for 4.8 mil then they just aren’t all that serious about winning this year…hope to do the ol’ braves thing of being just good enough to get wiped out in the first round, if they get to it…
I remember all the other guys sucking (save Minter) when they tried to close out games. it was painful to watch.
is he a perfect closer? no…he will make you sweat, but then strike out the side, like he did against the Dodgers in the playoffs. He’s not exactly old, just turned 28.
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I wonder if this has any connection to the Carter Stewart snafu?
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This smacks of an deeper story…
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Smoke/fire… you know…
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Leaks out of LA say that the Kitties were asking the Dodgers for #1 OF prospect Alex Verdugo for 1 year of the defensively challenged Castellanos. If that’s their asking price, I could understand if AntMan deleted (Tigers GM) Al Avila’s phone number from his contacts at the Winter Meetings.
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So why are all these baseball execs being so “patient” recently, waiting well into the new year for the market to soften?
Yasmani Grandal, who reportedly turned down 4 years/$60M-$64M from the Mets last month, has settled for a 1 year deal at $18.25M from the Brewers.
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At least there is a little movement at the top of the FA market…
Reports from many of the national writers late yesterday say that there is some movement in both the Manny and Bryce camps, and that each are seeking deals that top Giancarlo Stanton’s current record holding pact.
I read in someone’s, disputed by another’s, that the Yankees are now out on Manny, and that his market is basically down to 2 teams – ChiSox and Phillies. Similarly, it appears the Phillies are also 1 of 2 teams remaining on Bryce, being said Phils and the Nats.
I’d love nothing better than to see Philly whiff on both, but have a bad feeling they’ll get one if it kills them. After all, their owner says they’re gonna spend “stupid money”, and they’re determined to make headlines.
I do wonder, though, now that the Dodgers are obviously out on bringing Grandal back if they could return to the Bryce derby. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince is convinced that the Cards will be the derby winner on Bryce even though they haven’t been prominently mentioned for weeks. Then again, he’s also convinced that the Braves are going to acquire Madison Bumgarner. so his judgment has to be called into question to a certain degree.
At any rate, the market is beginning to churn a little bit again, even if it’s a little slow out of the gate.
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Reminder, there is just one ore day to come to agreement on contracts with our 7 arb eligible players…
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One “ore” day? Perhaps that was my way of saying they have to “dig up” some agreeable figures..? Yeah. That’s it. That’s what I was saying… 🙂
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Braves are darn blessed to have Wash on board here. The guy just makes ML infielders.
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V, if the braves don’t want to pay Viz 4.8 mil, then I’d say they aren’t really serious about winning this year. Oh sure, they will….compete, but if they get to the playoffs, 1st round and out…I remember what it was like when he was out…all these guys pretty much sucked (save Minter, and that only after he got more comfortable in the Role) Yeah, Viz will make you sweat, but like he did against the Dodgers, he can then strike out the side. Don’t think anyone else on the staff can do that. He just turned 28, so he’s not exactly old
Didn’t Soroka have shoulder issues that came up twice, then shut down for the year because of his age? ( he only pitched 60-65 innings for all of 2018) That worries me more than Viz’s arm. He was hitting 99 in the playoffs…
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It’s cool. We simply disagree on this one.
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all these guys pretty much sucked (save Minter, and that only after he got more comfortable in the Role)
Don’t forget that Minter was dealing with a muscle (oblique I think?) injury that was not made public until after the season. His improvement in results came with the improvement of his injury.
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Ah.. there it is. Bowman reported back in late September: Minter has been working on his mechanics recently after losing his release point early in August following a back strain.
I thought I remembered reading something along those lines back then.
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Hmmm… and right after Brian Bridges and Roy Clark are fired, uh… I mean “released” from their contracts.
It’s not hard to read between the lines here. The official reason for Bridges’ firing was that while he is a respected scout and talent evaluator, he was not proficient in the administration duties that come from the Director of Scouting position. It would appear that it was at least an administrative snafu that led to the dispute, grievance and eventual settlement… which I am sure cost the Braves a chunk of money in the end. It may have even cost them more than the original bonus slot amount would have. It obviously cost two men their jobs.
One might even reach to speculate that the reason the two men’s jobs were connected was due to some misleading or unethical actions on their part. But that’s just speculation on my part.
Bottom line: screw the pooch and lose your job. Real life in action.
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At the very least, retaining the #9 pick is a huge bit of news for a team that is desperate to hit on as many domestic draft picks as possible given the int’l market restrictions.
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Ber, how about this for a compromise? I don’t mind Viz being here if we don’t need his $4.8M for an OF or other more pressing need, and if he can win a job in Spring. Fair enough?
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Bowman says, “The Braves have won the grievance filed by Carter Stewart.”
“Won” or “settled”? Just semantics or significant?
One says, “We were not wrong.” The other says, “We were wrong, but we’ve atoned for it to your satisfaction.”
Not sure of it matters or if we’ll ever really know, but 2 high ranking guys in the scouting department were sacked yesterday. Coincidence?
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Is the FA dam finally breaking?
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“Bridges and Clark had continued in their regular duties since October, including accompanying Anthopoulos and his other directors and top assistants to the Winter Meetings last month in Las Vegas. Bridges and Clark are the latest Braves long-timers to be let go this offseason, after two minor league managers and a venerable former manager were dropped.
Dismissed were Rocket Wheeler, who managed high Single-A Rome last season in his 26th year as a minor league manager and 16th in the Braves’ organization; Luis Salazar, who managed the high Single-A Florida team in his eighth season as a Braves minor league manager; and on-field adviser Randy Ingle, who spent 41 seasons with the Braves, including 26 as a minor league manager before moving to the minor league advisory role he held in 2018.” DOB- Athletic
So, it only takes one “awe shiff” to wipe oout a ton of atta boys…
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I would not get overly comfortable in the manager’s office if I were Snit… Just saying…
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Win and stay in. I’m good with that.
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Well, the Nats were looking for a 2nd baseman…
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V, ok…fair enough compromise…better be someone demonstrably better than Nick M, or the compromise is OFF 😉
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I hate to say it, but I like the moves the Nats have made…in fact, I could see them having a decent chance of winning the division even without Harper…. Dozier’s average stunk last year, but 21 72 is not a bad off year for a 2nd baseman. and he bounces back to 34 HR’s like he had in 2017….
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They’ll have a good team no doubt if they are healthy and Juan Soto repeats his 2018 performance. But as tasty as an OF of Soto, Adam Eaton and Victor Robles looks on paper, there are at least a few questions. Will Soto avoid the proverbial sophomore slump? Are Eaton’s legs healthy? Can they remain so for 162 games? Is Robles as advertised? If the answer to all of those questions is “yes”, then they are solid.
Still, the Nats have a way of overcoming their own good fortune somehow. Bad mojo? Abraham Lincoln’s ghost? Proximity to Nancy Pelosi’s DC office? Who knows…
All I know is that the Braves are still 1 more good bat away from being ready to compete.
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Wow…
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Guys, the same could be said of Acuna as far as the sophomore slump argument goes. Robles? I’d take him…
As for the Braves repeating, they won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year. Like Ender and his base stealing… So, it’s going to be a bit tougher sledding in 2019. New season, new schedule, new team mates, new chemistry. You just never know how things will shake out.
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yep, we also have a frequently injured 3rd baseman, that is 33!!! Just tell him to Manny B.E. down the line during April/May til it warms up….
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we also have a frequently injured 3rd baseman
Just 3 disabling injuries in 8 ML seasons. Between the time he became a full season regular in 2013, he played in game totals of 158, 158, 158, and 155 before his first DL stint for a left calf strain limited him to just 113 games in 2017. Last year he hit the DL twice – early in the year with shoulder inflammation, then with the right calf injury – limiting him to just 52 games, 36 in TOR before being traded and coming back healthy with Cleveland in September. And in the season’s final 16 games he slashed .280/.400/.520 w/ 3 HRs and 3 doubles showing no lingering effects in the calf.
Three DL visits in 8 years… same as Freddie Freeman.
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the same could be said of Acuna as far as the sophomore slump
Absolutely.
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Joe Frisaro, the Marlins’ equivalent to our own Mark Bowman on MLB.com, posted this about 1:00 pm this afternoon:
According to a source, the Braves, Dodgers, Astros, Padres, Rays and Reds are considered the front-runners to acquire Realmuto.
Seriously, can you have 6 “front-runners”? 😆
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And a side note on JTR…
He’s in his 3rd year of arb, and thus must come to agreement on at least a 1 year deal with MIA before 1:00 pm ET tomorrow or the two sides must submit their respective amounts for arbitration. If they do in fact exchange figures, any team that acquires him in trade must abide by those submitted terms. Of course, the two sides can come to agreement at any point prior to the actual hearing, but the Braves in particular are known as a “file and trial” team, meaning once figures are exchanged, the negotiations cease and they go by the arbiter’s decision.
I wonder if they might make an exception if they acquired a guy after figures were already exchanged?
And I wonder how you approach that process with JTR knowing you’re trying to trade him and his salary anyway? Weird…
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Just another moving part to contend with…
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Wha-a-a-a-t?? That lineup though… 😯
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OK, since Buster has brought this up, let’s examine Pollock for a minute.
First, MLBTR ranked him as their #8 FA heading into the offseason, and predicted he’d sign for about 4 years, $60M.
Now… he is someone that I might characterize as “frequently injured”. 2015 was the only year in which he played 113 games in the past 5 seasons. His injuries have included a broken hand, an elbow fracture, a groin strain, and last year’s thumb fracture.
I suspect given the nature of those injuries that he’s a guy that goes full throttle on every ball hit to the OF, which is why he’s such a highly rated OF. IF he were placed in LF or RF, would he continue to play with wild abandon?
Probably. Guys who are gamers like that just go all gas no brakes. It’s just how they’re wired.
But when he’s playing, his 162 game averages look like this: .281/.338/.467, 19 HR, 67 RBI, 37 doubles, 7 triples, 26 stolen bases.
For the sake of argument, let’s meet his asking price. It might structure out something like 2019 = $13M, ’20 = $14M, ’21 = $15.5M, ’22 = $17.5M.
The positives: the Braves keep Austin Riley and all the other nice prospects and still add an impact bat to the lineup. They have an elite defensive OF… maybe the best in baseball. There is still money left over to look at enhancing the team’s pitching depth.
The negatives: Can he stay healthy? Will cost a draft pick as he received a QO from ARI. Uh… that’s about it.
So in essence you are banking your remaining big splash on an injury risk.
That’s a tough one for me. I know we need to add an OF. Unless we can swing a trade for a younger controllable guy, we have to lay money out there. Nick will cost $8M-$9M per season himself. And I look back at Buster’s lineup… and it looks pretty darn good. Glad I don’t have to make the call.
Maybe nothing but rumor, but I think I’ll keep my ear to the ground on this anyway.
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One more thought on the Pollock think. I wonder if getting a resolution on the Carter Stewart grievance plays into the timing here. Now that they know they are keeping the #9 pick (Stewart compensation) along with their regular pick at #21, perhaps they are more comfortable giving up their second rounder to sign Pollock?
Just a thought…
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Tell ya what… I’ll take Pollock on a 2-year / $30M deal, with a 3rd year team option at $16M and $2M buyout. Lines me up for Christian Pache or Drew Waters.
That guarantees him $32M and maybe more if he proves himself that valuable.
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So, what level of draft pick would have to be forfeited?
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This year’s 2nd rounder.
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On a day that is sure to be filled with news of 1-year agreements (or non-agreements), and possible longer term agreements, I have to be on the road for most of it.
So glad there are mobile options…
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Safe travel Bro…
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3 down, 4 to go. From the Braves:
The Atlanta Braves today agreed to terms with RHP Arodys Vizcaíno on a one-year, non-guaranteed contract worth $4.8 million for the 2019 season, thus avoiding salary arbitration.
The Atlanta Braves today agreed to terms with RHP Mike Foltynewicz on a one-year, non-guaranteed contract worth $5.475 million for the 2019 season, thus avoiding salary arbitration.
The Atlanta Braves today agreed to terms with Charlie Culberson on a one-year, non-guaranteed contract worth $1.395 million for the 2019 season.
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So, still to hear on Gausman, Winkler and Freeman….
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All done.
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Does this mean there are now only 5 “front tunners”? 😀
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… for JTR of course…
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And of course, that should be “front runners”. Fat thumbs and cell phone keyboards are a bad combination.
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So if I read this right, and there is any accuracy to it, the Marlins starting point in trade talks with LAD is Cody Bellinger?
Bwa ha ha ha ha ha!!
The chances of the Dodgers trading Bellinger are about as high as the Braves trading Ozzie Albies.
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So some quick albeit sketchy math – that includes estimates for the to-be-assigned pre-arb contracts – indicates the team’s current payroll sits around $115M. In that interview that is linked above, Thoppy specifically said they would exceed last year’s payroll in 2019. He said, “I do know we will be up… we’ll be up quite a bit. We’re not there yet. We have money that we can spend right now. We have quite a bit of money that we can spend right now. But we’re not finding the deal we like.”
Last year’s Opening Day payroll was about $121M.
I suppose the question then is how much is “quite a bit”? After all, he used that phrase twice, so it must have some tangible meaning, right?
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Baseball Prospectus has published their Top Prospects lists for 2019, including a new TOp 10 for the Braves. The names won’t be new to anyone, but the order might. Here is their list:
Ian Anderson – RHP
Austin Riley – 3B
Mike Soroka – RHP
Kyle Wright – RHP
Bryse Wilson – RHP
Cristian Pache – OF
Drew Waters – OF
Touki Toussaint – RHP
Kyle Muller – LHP
Joey Wentz – LHP
Sometimes WordPress is funny about number lists, so the numbers may disappear. If that happens, just know the list is in order 1-10 top to bottom.
Personally, I think 1-3 are fairly interchangeable… and in my book are as close to untouchable as you can get. I’d have to really get something special back in return for any one of those guys.
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And of course, the numbers did disappear. Strange WordPress trait.
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Vee, I suspect the Marlins “ask” for Realmuto includes 1-3 plus Ozzie… While one would likely be included, I would just as soon wait for JTR to hit free agency in a couple of years.
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If anyone cares:
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Gil, If I’m giving up Riley, it better be for a guy with pop that is controllable more than just 2 years.
I am simply not giving up Soroka or Anderson. Period. Call it Adam Wainright Syndrome.
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Yep, I am sure there are folks inside the Braves brain trust who are on both side of that argument.
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Yep. It’s why Johan Camargo shouldn’t be in despair over JD coming on board. It”s also why we’ll keep both Johan and Charlie on the roster… and both will see plenty of innings.
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Hmmm, now they have even more guys to play one of 3 positions out there…
“Wil Myers was one of the Padres’ most popular options at third base last year, but it doesn’t appear he’ll factor in at the hot corner in 2019. On Saturday, Myers told reporters – including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com – that he’ll be a full-time outfielder next season.
Of course, Myers’ shift back to the outfield will have ripple effects on the rest of the Padres’ position player group. Not only will it add to an outfield logjam – one that also includes Franchy Cordero, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski – but it’ll make it all the more important for San Diego to find a starting third baseman. The Padres have been prioritizing third this offseason, as Cassavell reported last month and as Acee further emphasizes.
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I’m not a fan of Wil Myers himself. Wait. That sounded personal. What I mean is… uh, I hate to quote DOB directly, but he addressed it yesterday: He’s coming off injury-plagued and unimpressive season (.253/.318/.446 w/ 11 HR, 94 K in 322 AB/83 games) and is owed $74 million over next four years of a backloaded deal, including $22.5M each of 2020-2022 seasons.
Unless I’m getting money back and not giving up much in prospects, I’d rather aim higher for Hunter Renfroe. But he’s not a perfect fit either, as AA is looking for a LH bat to balance a RH heavy lineup, and Renfroe is RH. (As is Myers, for that matter.)
So who fits? Franchy Cordero is a LH, but his splits are bad enough that the Pads look at him as a more of a part time platoon candidate. Framnil Reyes is RH. Manuel Margot? RH. Then there’s Travis Jankowski. He is LH, but has little power and projects more as a 4th OF.
In other words, the Fathers are not quite the perfect match that some see.
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The “big” news over the weekend centers around the 2 FA linchpins Manny and Bryce. The Yankees signed DJ LeMahieu for 2B, essentially ending their erratic pursuit of Manny, thus leaving his market down to CHW, PHI and the vaunted “mystery team”. Speaking of Philly, they met with Bryce over the weekend and exited the confab as the reported new leader for his services. They are determined to sign one of the two big dogs, and Bryce is the better fit for them. I expect that to happen fairly soon. Back to Manny… the ChiSox made a formal offer yesterday for 8 years at an undisclosed $$ amount. I so want that to happen… but I also want Bryce to go to their north side rivals, putting both stars in the same city. I think that would be amazing for baseball, but it won’t happen. As much as Theo and company want Bryce in Wrigley (can you even imagine that?), ownership has put the clampdown on their spending.
And as soon as Manny and Bryce make their choices, the dam should break and the others should begin to find new employers.
As for the Braves, they continue to be linked to AJ Pollock, but not at 4 years. Reportedly, if he’ll come back to 2 years (and preferably a 1-year “pillow” contract like JD), the Braves would make it happen. DOB pointed out the difference between the 2 players, though. JD has something to prove and has a fully healed calf muscle. Pollock has less certainty and would prefer a longer guarantee.
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This floated in late last night:
Math reveals that to be an AAV of $31.25M per year to play baseball. It’s good work if you can get it.
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Also, it should be noted AJ Pollock is a RH batter. Contradiction of stated needs? Hard to say.
We should also remember that AA told the radio guys last week that if you hear a name directly connected to the Braves, you can probably discount him as a possibility as AA and his posse are working more behind the scenes. Perhaps that statement was intended to throw us all off the scent. Maybe not. At any rate, I won’t start frothing at the mouth because Jon Heyman or Buster Olney connect a name to the Braves. And especially Ken Rosenclick. They really just want us to click a link to their story, accurate or not. America 2019.
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And the last item on my menu for the Braves this morning is JTR. I am about sick of talking about him. The Marlins’ asking price remains stupid high, causing the Padres to drop out of the race citing the unrealistic demands.
I’m ready for all teams to say BYE and leave Jeter stuck with an expiring asset. Maybe he’ll learn something. I don’t mind any exec assigning a value to his own player and not taking less than he thinks he’s worth. But there is point that exits high regard and enters mania. Jeter has crossed the line.
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The remaining teams of supposed interest should be the Braves, Rays and Astros (I don’t really believe the Reds to be a serious “front runner”), all of whom can simply wait out the delusional Marlins. The Braves can at least begin the season well with McFlow, while the Rays have Mike Zunino, whom they acquired from the Mariners earlier in the offseason, as the starter with youngster Michael Perez as his backup, and the ‘Stros have Robinson Chirinos and Max Stassi. So it’s not like any of the remaining 3 “front runners” are desperate to fill a catching void. Rather, each of these teams would love to make a major upgrade. I doubt any of them, the Braves included, will blink. It behooves each to simply wait… much like they have been doing.
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And the last item on my menu for the Braves this morning is JTR. I am about sick of talking about him. The Marlins’ asking price remains stupid high, causing the Padres to drop out of the race citing the unrealistic demands.
V, I too am quite tired of the JTR talk….been tired of it from almost the beginning. If he was in another division, I could see trading away the next Wainwright (and someone else that might end up almost as good) but to see say 2 starters as thorns in the braves side for 5 years, for a guy that could be gone in 2 years. Bleh.
with all that said, very weak , very weak defense of the Marlins, I kept hearing the Padres now have the best Minor league prospects, but won’t trade any of the top 5 guys…well…ok, you can certainly do that, but how do you expect to get JTR or Kubler for numbers 6, and 7? No team is going to do that…what’s happening now is what has happened in the past, only seems to be an ever bigger problem. Teams value prospects too much.
Worried about years of controllable-ness (new word) and cheapness, over, you know…winning. Pirates are a great example of that…fans stayed away in droves last year, even when they were good for the first 2-3 months.
Do I have a point??? I doubt it…the first part perhaps…did I mention I was sick?
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Very true that the new trend is to go younger. It’s a by-product of the new analytics driven game. All the hard numbers indicate that a player is in his prime from age 26-31, so players 32 and above are no longer valued the way they once were. The ripple effect is that teams do not want to give long term deals that extend very far past a player’s age 31, and are more willing to give younger prospects a chance to establish themselves. I have not tried to go back and look at average team ages, but I’d venture a guess that that number is going down. It is a fact that the average player salary went down in 2018 for the first time in ML history because of the trend to play younger players still in teams’ “controllable” years, while refusing to give out big guarantees to the old guys. (You can bet that the MLPBA will address that in the next negotiations, but I digress.) It doesn’t help any when you look at guys like Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Jacoby Ellsbury… all of whom are getting paid a veritable mint while playing sparingly. 38-year-old Pujols is due $87M for 3 more years, yet can’t field or hardly even run. 35-year-old Cabrera is still owed him $154M through 2023 and managed only 38 games last season. 35-year-old Ellsbury didn’t play at all in 2018 and is still owed $21M per season for both ’19 & ’20, plus a $21M team option for ’22 that carries a $5M buyout. And he’ll be a bench bat in the Bronx at best.
Is it any wonder that teams are skeptical to give out older players what used to be their “last big deal”?
Personally, as a capitalist at heart, I perfectly good with a player getting whatever an owner is willing to pay. But conversely, if said owner prefers to “pay as they go” on short term deals, I’m perfectly good with that as well.
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“All the hard numbers indicate that a player is in his prime from age 26-31, so players 32 and above are no longer valued the way they once were.”
Yes, the collation between age and performance is returning to pre PED levels.
There will always be those rare freaks of nature who defy father time but for the most part, the window for a huge payday is getting smaller. That is why players like Bryce Harper will hold out for the highest bidder. Everyone involves knows that anything beyond age 34 is a crap shoot.
A load of people point to the Mike Stanton contract as the new benchmark but the majority of Stanton’s money is back loaded. Loria knew Stanton would not retire in a Marlin’s uniform.
So, that brings us to player’s like Nick Markakis who by all rights should expect a big increase in his salary based on his 2018 performance but it is not going to happen. Is it fair? Well, yes and no. It all comes down to timing.
My advice to Thoppy… Sign Acuna long term while he can because it is a much safer bet than thinking the Braves will keep him beyond age 26 if he continues on his present trajectory for a discount…
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Nick Markakis who by all rights should expect a big increase in his salary based on his 2018 performance but it is not going to happen.
What will hurt, and is hurting Nick is that his production, while All-Star worthy early in the year, absolutely cratered in August and September. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that if it weren’t for that, he would probably have been re-upped here early in the offseason. Everyone loves him, and he fits the profile. But that finish… oy…
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I would like to wish him luck, but the Phillies? Well… I hope Lane stays injury free. Fair enough?
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AJC.com: Braves will unveil refreshed uniforms for the 2019 season during Chop Fest Saturday, Jan. 19 at the Battery Atlanta.
The very short blurb doesn’t define what that means. Big teaser. I guess we’ll find out on Jan. 19, eh?
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Hmmm…
Here’s a perfect example of how a report/rumor/statement can be taken at face value without having the evidence to back it up:
Me.
I’ve heard for a few weeks that AA is looking for a LH power bat for RF to help balance a RH heavy lineup. Today I looked at the projected lineup. If you eliminate the vacant RF position, and call McFlowers a wash, the other 6 positions are taken by 3 RH (Acuña, JD, Dans), 2 LH (Ender, Freddie) and 1 SH (Ozzie… who admittedly is a better RH hitter). So while a LH hitter would be great, I don’t think it’s an overwhelming necessity. Makes me re-think alot of the statements I’ve made above here.
Perhaps a desire for a LH hitting RF would be greater if the RH hitting JTR were wearing a tomahawk? Perhaps.
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Non-exciting Braves news, per DOB:
Braves made a bevy of position and/or title changes in baseball operations, including asst. GM Perry Minasian adding VP of baseball operations to his title and Jonathan Schuerholz moving from asst. player development director to asst. director of pro scouting.
Here’s the list:
Perry Minasian – Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations & Assistant General Manager
Alex Tamin – Assistant General Manager, Major League Operations
Dixie Keller – Director, Baseball Administration
Garrett Wilson – Manager, Baseball Systems
Noah Woodward – Manager, Major League Operations
Elizabeth Terán – Executive Assistant to Alex Anthopoulos
Matt Grabowski – Assistant Director, Amateur Scouting Operations
Ron Knight – Assistant Director, Minor League Operations
Jonathan Schuerholz – Assistant Director, Professional Scouting
A.J. Scola – Assistant Director, Minor League Personnel
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https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1089458317909189&id=607130192808673
Bringer of Rain.
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“Former New York Yankees legend Mel Stottlemyre — who starred on the mound for the Bronx Bombers before presiding over five World Series titles as a pitching coach for the Yankees and Mets — died Sunday in Seattle after a battle with bone marrow cancer. He was 77.”
Believe it or not, I saw Stottlemyre pitch as a kid for the Richmond Virginians in triple A… Man, that was a eon ago… May he rest in peace, bone cancer is an awful thing…
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Gotta be careful who you read and what you believe. There was a report last night that was picked up by some national writers that said the Braves had extended an offer to Marwin González, with one even asserting that he had signed.
That was quickly quashed by Gabe Burns, who emphatically stated that “the Braves have NOT made any offer to Marwin Gonzalez.” He went even further to say, “They’ve continued monitoring OF options in trade/FA, but to my knowledge Gonzalez has not been among them.”
But who else do we have to talk about today? So here we go…
I have nothing against González, and I can certainly think of worse options. But we sort of have MarGo already in Johan Camargo, although Gonzalez has more experience in LF. Actually, he has alot more experience in LF given that Camargo has exactly 0 games outside the IF.
Last year, the 29-year-old SH González slashed .247/.324/.409 with 16 HR’s in 145 games, split between LF (71), SS (32), 2B (24), 1B (22), 3B (2), CF (2), RF (1), and 7 PH appearances.
He had a career year in 2017 when he slashed .303/.377/.530 with 23 HR’s in just 134 games.
If you give any credence to the WAR stat – Wins Above Replacement – he was worth 2.5 wins last season. By comparison, Nick Markakis was a 2.6 WAR player last season. (Just for grins and giggles, Johan was a 3.7 WAR player last year.) And while I don’t think you can absolutely quantify a player’s worth in games per se, I do think it’s a fairly useful tool to compare against other players.
Would MarGo be a good signing for us? IMO, he would not be a bad signing. But is that how we want to characterize our acquisition… “It wasn’t bad”? It’s a little like those new commercials about the brake shop that’s “OK”, or the doctor that’s “OK”, or the tattoo artist that’s “OK”. I would like better than “OK”. Again, I can think of worse players, but if that is what we are left with, I’d just as soon give Johan a ton of time in LF during spring and just let him have it. Like I said, he is Marwin González, just better.
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There is another report out now that says San Diego’s interest in Corey Kluber is to flip him for a 3B. In other words, they would like to work a 3-way deal in which they give up some position prospects from their #1 rated farm system to acquire Kluber from CLE, but engage another team with a solid 3B to fill that hole while also picking up some itching prospects for the perennial “ace” pitcher.
Could Atlanta lineup with SD and CLE in that scenario? Maybe. It would probably cost Austin Riley though. And not just Riley, of course. Probably Riley plus Kyle Wright plus some lesser prospects.
Per the report, the Pads have tried to engage the Reds in an effort to land their top 3B prospect Nick Senzel. CIN has said “no”.
IMO, the Braves should also reject such an overture. The only position on the field that is more difficult to develop than catcher is the classic power hitting 3B. That’s why the only player for whom I would consider giving up Riley would be a top catcher (no names mentioned).
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“itching prospects”? I am sure many of our prospects are itching for a shot at The Show, but I was actually referring specifically to pitching prospects.
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Believe it when I say, typos happen… 🙂
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I see TOMAHAWK TAKE is beating the drum for A.J. POLLACK. They must be in full blown panic-mode over there, sweating while waiting for AA to bust a move. I’ve said here for several months now that POLLACK was my pick on an incentive-laden make-good one or two year deal.
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Having KAKES and DUVALL in a RF platoon makes me sweat. A scary proposition in 2019 while waiting for PACHE and WATERS to muscle up to the majors.
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Kakes will never be a part of a platoon. Won’t happen.
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I am of the opine that lots of folks (Braves fans) are just getting nervous that someone has not been signed to play in the Atlanta outfield. Pretty sure Thoppy will make a deal at some point, he just has not let the whole world know who it will be. I am still advocating for Mike Stanton but what do I know?
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Echoes my sentiments…
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Oh good grief…
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Is this anything like the performer “formerly known as Prince”?
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Fun trivia, and probably more than anyone wants to know… so you may tune out now if you wish…
Prince was on the bad end of a recording deal that plagues a vast majority of young artists who cannot afford a lawyer to pour over the intentional mound of paperwork filled with small print caveats. His record company, Warner Bros., not only made money off the star’s product, but they by contract could dictate how and when he recorded to a degree that Prince felt was stifling to his creativity. After rising to superstar status, Prince sought to renegotiate the deal, not in an attempt to gain a higher percentage of the profits, but to be able to put out more records than Warner Bros. was allowing. Warner Bros. said “NO”, holding Prince to the original terms of their pact and asserting creative control over his work.
This time, though, Prince could afford a lawyer, and his own creativity combined with some hired legal savvy came up with the scheme to legally change his name to a symbol which could be neither pronounced nor copyrighted, allowing “the artist formerly known as Prince” to produce material under his own means outside his contract with Warner Bros. without any outside interference or limit. And he churned out a ton of material as well as writing and producing hits for numerous other artists… none of it for Warner Bros.
And when his original contract with Warner Bros. was up in 2000, he legally changed his name back to Prince.
OK, those who turned away can come back now.
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File that one under “stuff”.
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That sir is some interesting “stuff”…. I have just had my knowledge base expanded by a Warp Factor of 5…
I always had wondered why Prince did that…
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And I have visions of quitting my job and spending all my time here in the ol’ B&S.
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Well, if they can get it done, why not? It sure would make them formidable…
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Talking Chop is plowing through their top 30 farm prospects. Up to 19 at the moment. However, some of my favs have already been listed.
Some pitchers and reliefer’s on their list:
[ ] = age;
( ) = TC ranking.
Starting Pitching:
RH HUASCAR YNOA [20] (24) – I like this kid. I think he’s got a real future with the club. Would not surprise me to see him take a big step forward this season. He’s got a full year, probably two before he comes calling in ATLANTA.
RH JASSEEL de la CRUZ [21] (21) – I think his development is behind YNOA, and I can’t rank him above YNOA going forward. That didn’t stop TC from doing just that however. I get no respect. He got hurt at the end of last April, and when he came back in June it showed. He seemed to right his ship somewhat late in the season so there’s hope for the future, but I would be a bit more circumspect as to his future in MLB than the TC crew.
Relief Pitching:
RH CHAD SOBOTKA [25] (22) – I’ve already placed him on ATLANTA’s roster. ST will tell if I am right. He’s been listed as a fairly low prospect by TC. I think they are wrong. I honestly believe he makes the 25-man right away. Blew through three levels in the minors, and carried a 0.98 WHIP in 14.1 IP in ATLANTA in 2018.
LH CORBIN CLOSE [23] (23) – if he continues his development, I expect him to join the ‘pen sometime in 2019. He may play the up and down game for a bit, but it would not surprise me to see him as a LH replacement for one of the lefties in the bullpen by season’s end.
LH THOMAS BURROWS [24] – didn’t make the cut, but to my mind, he has the distinct possibility of being in ATLANTA before 2020. He excelled in AA with an 0.84 WHIP in 19 IP.
RH TREY RILEY 20 – out of nowhere as far as I am concerned. Rookie+ last season. Pretty rough numbers. Had a couple decent relief stints in 2018. First year of pro ball. I didn’t figure RILEY into anything in 2019. This one’s a real surprise to me. Of course, I hope Talking Chop is right on the money here, and i am out in left field. We’ll see.
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https://twitter.com/SlmSolo/status/1085198267795861511
This is as close to anything of substance to be divulged by AA the entire offseason. Thanks Stealthy GM for tossing us a bone, even if it’s just a tiny one. 😀
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Tiny bones:
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Tough bones to “pick” Vee….
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“Add on”….. Current major league player or low level prospect with a high ceiling… Could go ether way…
I remember once during negotiation in buying a new car, got all the way down to whether or not the deal included the factory floor mats. Salesman: Are you going to let a set of floor mats keep you from buying this car? Me: Are you going to let a set of floor mats keep you from selling this car? All about perspective I guess.
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It has been suggested that the Braves have an interest in Padres OF Hunter Renfroe, and that they also have an interest in reliever Kirby Yates as well. I wonder if that’s the type “add-on” of whom he could be speaking? That would be a nice deal to address a couple of areas of need…
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from MLB trade rumors, they say we would lose a 2nd round pick….
One significant factor in the development of the offseason for the Braves, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), is the team’s hesitation to part with a draft selection to sign a player who declined a qualifying offer. There were six such players, only two of whom have signed to this point. Several are at least hypothetical targets for Atlanta, with the team reportedly showing real interest in outfielder A.J. Pollock. Rosenthal writes that the Braves are worried about the draft compensation that would be required to land Pollock — in their case, a second-round pick that’ll end up being sixty-something overall. Specifically, he says, the Braves “value the selection more than most clubs” because of the amateur talent penalties the team was slapped with in late 2017. If that is indeed a position the team itself holds, it’s somewhat less than compelling. The Braves certainly aren’t alone in valuing draft selections. Like their competitors, they must consider the future talent pipeline. It’s especially tough to see the club as uniquely situated when it still possesses a bounty of young talent at the major and minor league levels.
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Yes, that is correct. If they Braves were to sign a guy who declined a QO – such as AJ Pollock – they would lose their 2nd round pick… which is their 3rd overall since they own the #9 and #21 picks in the 1st round.
Now, let me just interject something here that is a bit of a bone of contention with me…
MLBTR cites Ken Rosenclick, who said in his column that the Braves “may be” hesitant to relinquish their 2nd round draft pick. His reasoning centers around the recent losses and penalties incurred by Coppygate. It isn’t flawed logic, But it is, my friends, just supposition. One might even call it “assumption”, and we were all taught as youngsters what happens when we “assume”, weren’t we? Ass-u-me, right?
Anyway, Rosenclick makes the headline to draw some eyes, and everyone across the blogosphere loses their minds. Over at Talking Chop, a web site that I generally like, they ran their own headline to point to Rosenclick’s article: Braves reluctant to part with draft pick in free agent signing, then summarized it in their piece with statements like “Atlanta has been reluctant to this point to sign a free agent that would require them to lose their third overall choice in the 2019 MLB Draft according to a report by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal”.
That is factually incorrect. Ken Rosenclick didn’t say that the Braves were reluctant to do anything. He didn’t even say they were hesitant. He said they may be hesitant. He ran a line of logic, and he drew a reasonable conclusion. He supposed. He presumed. That’s his job.
Now the interwebs are atwitter (see what I did there?) with the Braves’ hesitance to act in Free Agency..
Bah. Balderdash. Baloney.
Here’s what the Braves GM did say recently in a radio interview. He said, without mentioning specific FA names for obvious reasons, that if a deal makes sense for the team financially, he would not let the draft pick penalty be a deal breaker. That is straight from the horse’s mouth.
I believe that the draft pick compensation is a factor, and it should be. It’s a part of the cost. If my GM discounted it out of hand, I’d be disappointed. But if AA is taken at his word, the draft pick cost will not be an impediment to signing a Free Agent just because there is draft pick compensation attached.
Whew. I had to get that off my chest.
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To clarify, my personal bone of contention comes from all posts that take a supposition and reword it as actuality. This one is just the latest example.
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Nice factoid…
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We still have to wait out the two biggest pieces to sign somewhere so the rest of the market can get price adjusted.
I guess I have to wonder at what point does ML Baseball begin to collapse upon itself as far as being able to sustain massive contracts? Yes, there are huge amounts of money being thrown around but the steel industry and the auto makers thought there would be no end to their profits too.
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I guess I have to wonder at what point does ML Baseball begin to collapse upon itself as far as being able to sustain massive contracts?
Probably at the end of the 2021 season when the current collective bargaining agreement expires…
In all seriousness, as long as MLB continues to receive massive influxes of revenue from media mega-deals, players will continue to demand bigger and bigger portions of the pie. And who can blame them?
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Actually, that was a bad analogy. The players aren’t wanting bigger portions of the pie, they are wanting bigger pieces commensurate with the bigger pies.
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Manny Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, issued this statement to the media today:
I have known Bob Nightengale and Buster Olney for many years and have always had a good professional relationship with both. But their recent reporting, like many other rumors in the past several months, have been inaccurate and reckless when it comes to Manny Machado. I don’t know if their sources are blatantly violating the Collective Bargaining Agreement by intentionally misleading them to try and affect negotiations through the public or are just flat out lying to them for other reasons. But the truth is that their reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.
I am well aware that the entire baseball universe; fans, players, teams, and media members alike; are starved for information about this free agent market for all players, including Manny. But I am not going to continue to watch the press be manipulated into tampering with, not just with my client, but all of these players’ livelihoods as they have been doing this entire offseason. The absence of new information to report is no excuse to fabricate “news” or regurgitate falsehoods without even attempting to confirm their validity and it is a disservice to baseball fans everywhere when the media does just that.
Moving forward, I will continue to respect the CBA’s prohibition on negotiations through the media, and hope that others would do the same.
Yowser. Lozano is not a fan of suppositions either, especially the way they are currently portrayed in media “reporting”. I believe our President has a name for it… Fake News.
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Yes, it will eventually result in baseball loss of protection from anti-trust… Persoanally, I would like the wealth to be spread around a little but more to the minors but since I don’t own a team, it is easy for me to say…
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Teams better start investing more in their minor league players. Case in point: Kyler Murray, whom the A’s are about to lose to the allure of instant wealth from the NFL. And who can blame Murray? Why would he eschew making millions right away from being a 1st round NFL pick for toiling away in the minor leagues for peanuts in hopes of making the ML minimum in 3 or 4 years? Even the great Chipper Jones took 4 years to make The Show.
Yes, in the long run, baseball could likely be the wiser choice. But how do you tell that to a 21 year old kid who sees instant fame and fortune just 3 months away?
Baseball might want to invest some $$ into keeping the best athletes in their sport…
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Dan Lozano has a point. He knows it is all about someone trying to be the first with a scoop but in today’s environment what does that amount to, 15 minutes?
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The old joke related to umpires, who fictitiously said, “I call ’em as I see ’em. And if I don’t see ’em, I make ’em up.”
That joke has sadly shifted to the media, but the only thing fictitious about it is the quality of many of their reports. Making headlines and generating clicks is the only real goal in modern media. Facts are no longer important. And the media personalities hide behind the protection of “sources”, who are and should be protected. That is, of course, if they actually exist. With no mechanism to fact-check “sources”, it comes down to simple trust. And that trust is what is eroding away in modern media. Unfortunately, alot of good and decent journalists are losing credibility alongside the shadier ones. It’s why I no longer watch any news, CNN or Fox. I don’t trust any of them anymore.
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I am as guilty as anyone of seeing something that appeals to me personally and reposting it here. I try not to load us up with garbage, but I’m sure I do my share. I should do a better job of making sure I post the ponderings of others as just that… someone’s musings.
And related to that, notice I haven’t even mentioned a certain catcher’s name (or initials) here lately? Maybe if something tangible pops up, I’ll break my self-imposed moratorium. Or maybe not.
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Question… Would you trade a boatload of young prospects for 2 years on an All-Star who you doubt you can afford in 2021? Asking for a friend…
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Patrick Weigel is a name we’ve kind of glossed over in favor of some of the more notable ones, but perhaps we shouldn’t. If you’ll recall, he was probably 2 or 3 minor league starts away from making his ML debut in 2017 when he suffered the elbow injury that required TJ surgery and all that follows. Anyway, he is healthy and ready to compete in 2019 and to earn his spot back on the organization’s radar. Here is a fantastic interview with the young man whom I am rooting for both professionally and personally:
https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/1/16/18182730/interview-with-atlanta-braves-pitching-prospect-patrick-weigel
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We still have to wait out the two biggest pieces to sign somewhere so the rest of the market can get price adjusted.
The Phillies need to go ahead and make their “stupid money” offer to Bryce and get this thing rolling. It’s going to happen, and they’ve pretty much neutered their own leverage by continuing to spout off in the media about their “visions”. So they might as well cave and get it over with, then Manny can get his deal from the leftovers and AA can finalize his big trade.
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This is almost exciting. It would be if there were a new OF attached. 😀
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https://www.mlb.com/news/terry-pendleton-set-for-braves-hof-honor/c-302798612
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Indulge me here…
One guy hit .297/.366/.440, with 14 HR, 43 2B in 2018; the other hit .281/.313/.419, with 15 HR, 35 2B.
One is 35 years old; the other is just 33.
One is projected to sign for 2 years at about $8M per season; the other is expected to require the same annual amount but for just 1 year.
One guy started off hot in 2018 and cratered late; the other actually had a better second half than the first.
One is a former Oriole; the other is a former Oriole. 🙂
It just strikes me that the Braves are keeping in touch with Nick Markakis as a fallback option if he’ll sign for 1 year, or so it’s rumored. Why would they not also be in touch with Adam Jones, who is younger and has more power potential? If the main concern with Nick is how he tailed off in August and September, wouldn’t logic dictate that Jones’ strong second half should at least spark some mild interest?
Let me be clear… I prefer a trade for a younger, more potent bat. But if it comes back to “settling” on an affordable FA, I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on the former 5-time All-Star.
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berigan2electricboogaloo
December 27, 2018 at 9:49 am
Here is a guy I completely forgot about…Adam Jones. Doesn’t walk but before last year, he had 7 straight 25 + home run seasons. Last year, only 15, but 35 doubles…
He’s 33
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Well, the OF market appears to be clogged, but the reliever market is gangbusters… well, gangbusters in the Bronx anyway. The Yankees have just signed Adam Ottavino to go along with the previously signed Zach Britton to add to incumbents Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman. That will be a shutdown bullpen.
BTW- the terms of the deal are 3 years / $27M. That should end all speculation of them still being in on Manny.
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A couple of things to keep in mind about Adam Jones, one, he was playing hurt for most of the season and two, he was batting in a very weak line up. I don’t think Jones can really be called upon to play centerfield as he once did but still could handle either corner without much trouble.
As far as Nick’s drop-off in production last season, it is why I think it is detrimental to play in the All-star game. Instead of getting break in their routine and allowed to recharge mentally as well as physically, they are run down the cattle shoot. I just don’t see an up side to it. Want an All-star game? Play it after the World Series…
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I don’t think Jones can really be called upon to play centerfield as he once did but still could handle either corner without much trouble.
He’d make a heckuva LF’er, especially in an OF that features Ender and RAJ. Can his bat bounce back? Maybe… and it would be good reason for him to come in on a 1 year deal ala JD to prove he’s healthy and worth alot more in 2020.
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Would reliever Jonathan Holder be considered an “add on”? 😉 I’ll take him.
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If we could pick up Gray and Holder, then send Julio elsewhere, it wouldn’t hurt my feelings. Gray is a candidate for a nice bounceback outside the Bronx Zoo, and Holder is an up-and-comer.
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Then again, our GM is stealthy. So…
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A trade scenerio that sent a package of JULIO and SHANE CARLE away
for anybody would suit me right down to the ground.
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Hard not to root for this guy even if he does play for a rival. Of course, now that he has transferred to Oklahoma, the rivalry factor isn’t there. I hope he has a spectacular 2019 season unless OU plays UGA in a bowl or playoff game. 😀
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https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1086265772803006465
Based in fact or fiction? Hard to say…
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A trade scenerio that sent a package of JULIO and SHANE CARLE away for anybody would suit me
I still believe Julio will be traded before Opening Day. I also believe there will be a significant trade for an OF’er and an acquisition of a better than average starting pitcher. Nothing tangible to base that on… just my gut. Logic and reason just tells me that AA cannot and will not go into 2019 with needs not addressed when there is a glut of pitching prospects at the top level that are at the peak of their prospect value. It simply does not make good baseball sense.
As for Shane Carle, if he makes the bullpen coming out of spring, then more power to him. But the competition will be fierce, and and he does have a couple of minor league options remaining, so there’s that. He was very good at times in 2018, but he also faded down the stretch.
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I liked Allen for the Braves. I think he’ll be good value for LAA. Oh well…
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Somewhere in a string of Tweets, Rosey said, “Allen was looking for team that would give him opportunity to close.” That may not have been such a clear path here, where I think the new analytic approach to the bullpen suggests matchups over innings. In other words, the “closer” may not always pitch the 9th inning if the meat of the opponents’ order is up in the 7th or 8th. I think the new approach says you have at least 3 solid relievers that can get you through the late innings when necessary.
I’ll never forget watching Craig Kimbrel staring out of the bullpen while the Dodgers were scoring the winning runs because Fredi was saving him for the 9th inning that never came. You have to pitch your best against their best. Period.
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And for the Braves, Viz and AJ Minter make up 2 of the 3. Who is the 3rd? Dan Winkler? Maybe. He was very good at times, especially in the first half of the season. Darren O’Day? Distinct possibility. What about Chad Sobotka? I think he has the stuff. None are proven though and come with questions.
And of course, that also doesn’t take into account the possibility adding to the candidates a young starter like Luiz Gohara or Patrick Weigel, both of whom have the “stuff” to be dominant in relief roles.
I keep seeing our bullpen characterized as being a weakness, but I swear I see alot of potential already here. But there’s that word again – potential.
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It just underscores how impressive the Yankees’ new bullpen will be: Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Dellin Betances, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle… and whomever else if they feel the need for an 8th reliever. But will they need one? Their rotation is equally impressive with Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, JA Happ, and CC Sabathia. That whole pitching staff is impressive top to bottom.
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Well… It is only money…. 🙂
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Who is that? Beats me. But according to MLBTR, The 28-year-old hasn’t cracked a big league roster since 2016 and has only 11 MLB frames under his belt in all. However, Aro does have a career 3.14 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 in 174 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. He’s spent the past two seasons with the Triple-A affiliates for the Mariners (2017) and the Padres (2018).
His profiles says he’s mostly a 2 pitch fastball/slider reliever, primarily relying on a 4-seamer that hits 94mph while mixing in a slider at 84mph. He will occasionally add in a rare changeup that floats in at 84mph and an even rarer sinker that hits 93mph. He is considered a flyball pitcher.
Nothing to get excited about. Purely a no-risk addition to fill out the minor league bullpen.
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They’ve piqued my interest… of course by design. Doesn’t mean I’ll rush out to ChopFest tomorrow. Just means I’ll be looking for pics on social media shortly after 11am. 😀
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“Ace” offspring…
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“Refreshed” unis…
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I really like how they upgraded the road blues to button ups with piping. Looks more professional to me. I also don’t mind that the red home alternates are back. Looking sharp.
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WILLANS ASTUDILLO must have improved since he was a BRAVE. Maybe we should have sent him up to the big club too?
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Now on to more pertinent matters, Darren O’Day update:
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… with an underscore from someone in tune:
https://twitter.com/Folty25/status/1086670929080606720?s=19
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I expect for Snit to be yelling “EASY” everytime O’Day has an at-bat which should be about once per season…
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Mike Soroka update:
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Dansby update:
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Now to just get Bryce signed and get to work. 😀
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Or trade for Stanton… 🙂
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chirp…chirp…chirp…
Quiet day huh?
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So the big action over the weekend…
Sonny Gray goes to the Reds, who immediately extend him. That was a part of the who.e trade process. They Yankees gave the Reds a 72 hour window to negotiate with Gray’s agent as a part of the trade talks.
Oh, and a 3rd team jumped in to make it more interesting…
So the deal goes like this, courtesy of MLBTR::
Second base prospect Shed Long and a Competitive Balance Round A pick will go from the Reds to the Yankees in exchange for Gray and left-hander Reiver Sanmartin. New York, according to multiple reports, will flip Long directly to the Mariners in return for center field prospect Josh Stowers — the Mariners’ second-round pick in the 2018 draft.
As part of the trade, Gray has agreed to a new, three-year contract extension with the Reds that’ll span the 2020-22 seasons. He’ll earn $30.5MM over those three campaigns — that’s in addition to his $7.5MM salary for the 2019 season. The contract also reportedly comes with a $12MM club option for the 2023 season. There are $500K worth of incentives based on innings pitched in each new season of the deal, and his annual salaries can grow based on performance escalators.
Looks to be a good deal for all involved. And for everyone who wrote Gray off, watch out for a big bounceback from him. His numbers outside of Yankee Stadium, and in the NL particularly, were still very good.
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Now Braves (homage to The Scribe)…
They had what was by all accounts a very successful fan expo in their Chop Fest, even if it was a nasty rainy Saturday. Alot of players and staff were there talking to fans and the media, including our GM, whose interview is linked above. He continues to express an ability to trade and sign, just not a willingness to spend capital for the sake of spending capital.
Also from the weekend, the Braves have been connected LAD and their apparent willingness to deal Joc Pederson. This should be no surprise to anyone, even if they have already sent 2 OF’s to the resurgent Reds. The Dodgers are still loaded and have uber-prospect Alex Verdugo ready to make the scene. And I should think that AA will be connected to any potential deal with the Dodgers given his strong connections there.
As for Pederson specifically, I’d take him. He’s not a strong hitter vs. LH pitchers, but crushes righties. And as we all know, he can hit it a mile. I think he’d be a good pickup to pair with gulp Adam Duvall in a pseudo-platoon in the OF. As for defense, the Braves would essentially deploy 4 CF’s into the OF giving a huge security blanket to their young pitching.
And since Joc does have some holes in his game, the cost should not be prohibitive in prospect capital, leaving AA with the ability to continue looking for more pitching.
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Johan Camargo is probably a stronger platoon candidate for Joc Pederson… especially since Duvall could find himself a roster casualty if/when the Braves add another OF.
I see the bench as Mac (platoon), Johan (platoon), Charlie (RH) and LH power for balance. Duvall does NOT meet that need.
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Good morning all…. It appear the Reds are getting serious about being players in the Central.
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It appear the Reds are getting serious about being players in the Central.
Let’s see… they have added a strong starting pitcher and a strong starting OF. And they have been in on talks for a certain top veteran catcher. Hmmm… where have I heard that one before? (They also got rid of an OF who was speedy and a great defender, yet couldn’t hit. But I don’t want to get ahead of myself.)
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Speaking of OF trades, over the weekend DOB hinted that David Peralta could still be on the radar even though ARI previously said he was not available. OB didn’t expound, just mentioning the name in passing. But I agree that it does make sense for the Snakes to trade him now while he’s still got 2 more years of club control… pretty much maxxing out his trade value. Since the Rattlers are in full rebuild mode, they won’t be in contention for the remainder of those 2 years anyway, so why not get what you can get now?
If Peralta is available in trade, he’s my top choice. He’s still in his prime years, although he’s already 31. Last year he slashed .293/.352/.516 with a sparkly 30 HRs and 87 RBI, earning a Silver Slugger award. he has experience in both corner OF spots and is considered an average defender. He also has plenty of AB’s in the cleanup spot. As LH hitter, he fits the mold of what AA is looking for even if his splits are a little skewed toward RH pitching. He wouldn’t be a strict platoon candidate, but could be a spot to insert Johan occasionally against pitchers that historically own him. (Heck, that’s what the new world of analytics is for, right?)
I can see ARI dangling Peralta to teams wiling to take on the bad contract of Zack Greinke. Maybe they’ll dangle him as a standalone piece, though, and get a couple of nice prospects from ATL.
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And don’t forget, too, that Thoppy specifically said in his interview that one of the OF’s in whom they’ve been in trade discussions is someone who has not been named in the rumor mill. That doesn’t mean we might not have pegged and talked about him, but he hasn’t been linked to the Braves in the media.
That’s a nice little bone for us to chew on, ain’t it?
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“Closer” material, right?
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Did you notice how nicely Flo framed that pitch? If he had moved his glove from left to right instead of moving back towards the center of the plate, that pitch would have been called a ball.
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Wow. On the cheap. This better be a precursor to something bigger in addition. By itself this just doesn’t do it for me.
Still, getting back a .297/.366/.440 hitter, and Gold Glover, is not a bad thing.
But surely there is something else that is going to happen if this is the OF acquisition…
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Perhaps getting Nick back on the cheap allows them to trade Ender to ARI in a deal for David Peralta and Zack Greinke. 😀
I know… I know… but it’s fun to think about anyway…
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https://twitter.com/Folty25/status/1087821481885818883
Folty says it’s OK, so it’s OK.
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https://twitter.com/Folty25/status/1087828357004308480
Somebody’s a fan.
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Starting pitching is now on the clock… unless Kimbrel’s price drops. Braves can still afford him with the low signing of Kakes.
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It is hard to feel bad for a guy to be taking a 5 million dollar pay cut after such a stellar year but 6 million is not exactly chump change and it allows the Braves to spend more money in other areas. That and the boo birds still have Nick to kick around…
Nick is not exactly Bryce Harper but perhaps with a bit more time off during the season, he can maintain to the end. I still see him as a good 2 hole hitter and moving Donaldson to cleanup but it is not my call.
Vee, I can understand your disappointment in having Markakis return. A little like having your heart set on a nich juicy stake and ending up with a spam sandwich. Still, spam can be filling and it will keep you from starving and allows you to make your mortgage payments… but I digress…
It is not like Nick is deep into the Braves pockets and if something else comes up he could be moved.
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It is not my money but re-signing Kimbrel would really shore up the pen.
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Vee, I can understand your disappointment in having Markakis return.
Not disappointed at all, I just hope that he is not the “big” acquisition that was remaining. I absolutely believe they’ll now turn their attention to pitching now. And that’s OK with me as long as it’s significant. Apparently Kakes made it know he wanted to come back here and was willing to drop his asking price to make it happen. So it happened. That development allows AA to continue to seek additional ways to improve the team. I’m perfectly fine with all of that as long as we don’t stop with this move.
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Pretty sure this is not the “Big Move”… we have been anticipating. The positives are one more season of maturing in the minors for Pache, Contrass and Riley but,,, A championship team does not try to add all its rookies at once. At this point, I don’t know how you even work them into the present line up.
So, while 2019 is not yet upon us, 2020 will have more holes than this year’s team. Oh well, Realmuto will be cheaper next season.
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Perspective…
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Does he know anything or is he just blowing smoke? Time will tell, and likely soon. Only 23 days until P&CR.
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well…I am glad Nick M isn’t mad…cuz he took a what, 40+ % pay cut, after his best year here. Shocked teams like say the Indians, in desperate need for outfielders, didn’t offer him 10 mil. 6 mil. Bad relievers get more than that….
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The new reality for players 35+ years of age. He can thank Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury and analytics for the new landscape… not to mention a complete non-existence of pharmaceutical assistance.
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And don’t forget the last year of Jason Werth in DC. YUGE.. drop off….
I know it is all relative but $4 MM is not exactly chump change, even in today’s money. My guess is he won’t be buying his kids Maseratis for their birthdays but can still afford the gas for a Prius. 🙂
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Whaaaa?
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Morning folks, It was reported that Nick turned down better offers to play elsewhere but turned them down to stay in Atlanta. Hey, he likely has not spent all his money like some of his contemporaries so he can afford to be “happy” ….
Let us not forget that if nothing else, Nick adores his kids.
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Now, the number one reason the Braves won’t be trading Ozzie, Ronald Acuna… tough to trade away one of your brightest star’s best friend.
Di spite rumors to the contrary, you cannot buy team chemistry.
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I cannot remember where I read it, because I read so many different reports on Nick’s signing yesterday, but Thoppy noted in a post-signing interview/statement that the analytics pointed to the sharp dropoff in Nick’s production occurring with about 6 weeks remaining in the season. AA was also emphatic that because of that, they would be intentional in getting Nick rest during the course of the 2019 season. Also, it was made crystal clear to Nick himself that he would not be playing 162 games in 2019.
ANd before the “P” word is brought up, I don’t think that means a platoon at all, especially since Nick’s numbers are not that disparate between LH and RH. I just think it means that Johan will get some of his utility time in the OF when Snit sees fit. (Snit fit? Sorry…)
In a semi-related note, and with nothing personal against Adam Duvall, I hope he doesn’t remain on our bench. For one, he hasn’t proven to be a productive PH’er. But maybe more importantly, when you remove the 2-headed catching monster and the SH’ing super-utility player, the 2 guys remaining are the RH Charlie Culberson and the RH Duvall. Doesn’t balance. And unless he’s included in a trade, Culberson will be on our bench.
It should be noted that Duvall’s $2.875M deal is only guaranteed if he makes the team, so money is not a factor in his contingency.
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I’ll bet Curtis Granderson could be had for about the same $4M as Nick… or only $1.125M more than the non-guaranteed Adam Duvall.
Last season he hit .247/.355/.444 with 13 HR’s in a platoon role.
Just sayin’…
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I love Frenchy. He’s going to be soooooo good on the broadcasts this year.
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So, we are barreling towards spring training. So many things can change things in a flash. The blockbuster trade, an injury, a failed drug test.
What I do predict is the Braves will be a pre-season pick to finish 3rd in the NL East behind the Nats and the Mets. Lots of bulletin board material will be available for the Braves to motivate them to over achieve in 2019.
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Gil, I will go out on a limb and say I expect a big trade before the boys head north to Atlanta. Before Spring Training starts? Uh… maybe, maybe not. But I expect it to happen. Too may valuable arms log-jammed at AAA for it not to happen.
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Here’s an interesting take on the reportedly “slow” Free Agent market. I’ve even heard it characterized as “late emerging”.
32 of the top 50 rated FA’s have signed, and that includes 14 of the top 20 and 5 of the top 10. But because Harper and Manny continue to drag their respective media circuses into late January, the talking heads want to paint the landscape as the owners’ being cheap and unwilling to spend.
Baloney.
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Looking at the up coming season and how teams are shaping up for 2019, the NL West looks to be a cake walk for the Dodgers. The Giants are still in the early stages of rebuild, the D’Backs are being blown up. The Padres are still building. The Rockies will be strong but who knows which way the wind will blow at Mile High.
Given that, you have to wonder how willing the Dodgers are to bump up their luxury tax penalties to sign Harper so there is that.
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Well, outfield is settled for 2019.
Appears BRAVES preferred kicking the can down the road in order to give RILEY, PACHE, CONTRERAS, ALEXANDER, and WATERS another year to develop.
So does that mean a 2020 WS is kicked as well?
I think prolly, but if we punt in 2019 to build towards a WS appearance in 2021, well……..O.K. by me.
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Gordon, I am of the mind that with Donaldson slated to play third in 2019, Riley will be exposed as either the next great 3rd baseman for the Braves or as another in the mold of Wilson Betemit and Rio Ruiz… Lots of can’t miss prospects have missed badly.
What do the Braves need most to put them over the top? A shut down closer? A front line Ace? A reliable bench bat? All three? A magic wand….???
The best teams on paper do not always translate well to the field nor do they stay healthy.
I have repeatedly said that the All-star game is often detrimental to some players as they don’t get to recharge their batteries for the final push into August and September. Methinks Kakes and Ozzie were prime examples of that last year while Ender had a Chance to reload. Looking back at my own personal experiences a realize now that I should have taken more vacations to recharge rather than push through the pain. I think it would have benefited a lot of folks.
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Cant judge the cake until it’s finished baking…
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Interesting. Parallels with a certain catcher? It has been suggested that the Marlins have 1 or 2 solid offers on the table, but are just waiting it out to see if they get anything better before accepting one of those in hand. Whether or not it might be Atlanta is an entirely different story. But it’s inconceivable that JTR will open the season as a Marlin. I think ATL still has as good a shot at him as any team. Would then make the Kakes signing look more palatable in that frame of reference.
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Consider:
RAJ (R)
JD (R)
Freddie (L)
JTR (R)
Nick (L)
Ozzie (S)
Ender (L)
Dans (R)
That would play all day…
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So why go 1 yr/$6M on Kakes instead of 3 yrs/$50M on Cutch? Not only do the Braves have the aforementioned Christian Pache and Drew Waters on the 2020/2021 horizon, but also Greyson Jenista and Isranel Wilson.
Greyson Jenista was the Braves’ Round 2 draft pick last year (their highest pick after Carter Stewart flaked) and was considered one of the best overall bats coming out of college. This kid has all the tools and really just needs time to adjust to pro ball. The big fella (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) is likely destined to corner OF/1B even though he has shown above average speed. He hits line drives to all fields and has plenty of power. His ceiling might not be as high as Pache or Waters, but his floor should still land him on a ML roster in a couple more years. Solid if not flashy.
And if you haven’t heard of Isranel Wilson, you should make a note of his name now. He’ll just turn 21 when the 2019 season kicks off, and should open this season in high-A Florida, where he ended 2018. Right now he has plus speed, plus range, plus arm, and plus power. What he has to work on is consistency and hitting to all fields. He’s a guy that could become a fast riser if he figures it out. He doesn’t have the high floor of Jenista, but he has a higher ceiling for sure. Still, he has alot to figure out. With a few OF’s ahead of him in line, he’ll have time to get it together.
Don’t be surprised if the 2022 Braves OF features Acuña/Waters/Jenista.
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Wow. Strong. Should be seeing some of these guys very soon. Maybe even some of them in Atlanta. 😆
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https://twitter.com/BasebaIlKing/status/1088133255956619264
HOF’er
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There has been an uptick in JTR chatter overnight. Not sure the source, but it seems that the Fish are asking for a young controllable ML player + 2 top 100 prospects. It has been established that they have asked the Braves for Ozzie and asked the Dodgers for Cody Bellinger. The overnight chatter suggests they have pivoted off Ozzie to Ender, but only if Ian Anderson is included.
Again, this is chatter that has no traceable source. But I do think it paints a fair framework of what the Marlins are holding out to get. I think based on some other deals made for star players, the “young controllable ML player + 2 top 100 prospects” standard is probably pretty close.
Now that said, they can ask for the moon and stars but it doesn’t mean they’ll get it. The Braves may give up a young player + 2 top 100’s, but it won’t be Ozzie and it shouldn’t be Anderson. Ender? Maybe. Remember, our top 100’s are Austin Riley (22), Anderson (24), Mike Soroka (25), Kyle Wright (39), Touki Toussaint (53), Bryce Wilson (80), Drew Waters (83) & Christian Pache (85).
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On those top 100 prospects… for me, I would not trade Anderson or Soroka under almost any circumstances. I would consider Riley only for a real star type player and only because CJ Alexander seems legit and only a couple of years away himself. I would hate to part with any of the others, but would under the right conditions. And if I had to choose, I would prefer to keep Waters over Pache as I believe Waters to be a more complete player. FWIW, I have a soft spot for Bryce Wilson. I just like to watch him pitch. He has a bulldog streak in him that you just can’t teach.
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I think one very important consideration is this, if they do make a trade for Realmuto, is it just for two years or do the Braves believe they can extend his contract at a price they can afford? If JTR is going to bolt for greener pastures because the Braves feel they cannot afford him, I would just as soon play the cards they have.
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There are lots and lots of moving parts to a major league ball club. Now, here is something I have noticed. Baseball places a huge premium on offense. You can hands like an ogre but baseball writers, fans, girls etc. don’t care. Chicks dig the long ball isn’t just an ad slogan, it is a mantra that every hall of fame voter lives by. Never mind that an outfielder can reduce your pitching staff’s ERA by a full run, fans, owners and writers don’t care. It’s how many homers can they hit?
I know having power is important but even the best hitter will fail 70% of the time. Still, it is what drives a player to “cheat” … Being able to hit a baseball 5 feet further is often the difference between a hall of famer and a ham and egger… I can dig it, I want a player who can excel but to tell the truth, I would rather have Nick Markais who plays and honest game than a Barry Bonds who was a first class jerk.
So, what does Atlanta need to compete in 2019. They already have everything they need to fit into that category. They will be competitive. The real question is do they want to be competitive or do they want to win? Even the best pitching staffs are going to have an ERA north of 3.00. To expect you pitchers to hurl a shut out 162 time a year is unrealistic. The stress of trying to be perfect every at bat wears a pitcher down.
So yeah, you need offense, you need power but you better have the ability to make the plays behind your pitchers if you expect to be in the game.
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So, how much should the Braves off Kimbrel to return to Atlanta? One thing for sure, as long as the Braves organization cries poor me, they will never get back to the World Series. They will be the Boston Red Sox post Babe Ruth. They will be the Oakland Athletics pre Billy Bean.
As much as most owners would like to deny it, it is the team with the deepest pockets that wins consistently.
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*So, how much should the Braves off Kimbrel to return to Atlanta?
Maybe the single biggest difference maker available as far as this team is concerned? Maybe. Given the way the team is currently constructed, improving the pitching staff as a whole is the most prudent action now. And adding another shutdown inning (whichever inning that is) makes the team better for sure.
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If Thoppy added Kimbrel, and if our young pitchers Folty and Newk could take another step forward, and if our younger pitchers could emerge as advertised, we could be as good as any team the NL East.
.. and maybe better.
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I am still concerned about McFlowers being able to catch 162 games. But I suppose if they can get us to July we can re-address it then.
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Apparently there is a new buzz about Craig Kimbrel in connection with ATL. IMO, if he’ll reduce his expectations, which were ridiculous from the outset, it might be feasible. Seems like 6 years were mentioned at one point, but the 5 yr / $80M that Kenley Jansen got from the Dodgers a couple years ago is what he’s wanting. He won’t get it though, I don’t believe. 3 years with a 4th year option at that $15M AAV seems more reasonable. 4 years is still a possibility at a slightly lesser AAV, or if a team feels it needs to make that one last big strike. Braves?
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The action is beginning to pick up. SO fat today, Pollock signs with the Dodgers (4 yrs / $50M), RP Brad Brach signs with the Cubs (1 yr / $3M w/ 2020 option), RP Hunter Strickland signs with SEA (no terms published yet).
More to come I’m sure. Spring Training is getting close. Gotta shore up those rosters and get ready to roll…
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Hearing more Kimbrel talk. Mostly saying that if you have Minter / Viz / Kimbrel at the back end of your bullpen, you’ve got one of the best in the game. Hard to argue that.
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Pretty sure the Braves are working the phones for Peterson today, I expect the package of prospects are the sticking point.
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Seeing as how Joc Pederson is a LH bat that sux vs. LH pitchers, he isn’t a good fit in ATL anymore now that Nick is back in the fold… unless another LH bat is on the move elsewhere (Ender?).
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I doubt seriously it would include a 100 prospect. Do the Dodgers need to clear roster space for Pollock?
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It appears they had 1 spot to fill, much as the Braves did when they signed Nick. Both rosters are now full, though.
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With just 3 weeks to go, unsigned players want to know where they’re going to train. The waiting is paying off for many of these team execs.
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Ramifications of Pollock signing in LAD…
Bryce Harper’s potential destinations just dropped by one. Joc Pederson goes from trade possibility to trade probability.
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With LAD out of it, I have a nagging feeling Bryce is going back to WAS, and Manny will wind up in PHI. It’s not a good feeling at all.
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Bob Nightengale, USA Today:
Major League Baseball has proposed several rules changes in an effort to curb teams from exploiting the disabled list and manipulating rosters.
The rule proposals, which must be approved by the Major League Baseball Players Association, would revert the minimum time on the disabled list to 15 days instead of 10 days. It was 15 days before being changed to 10 days in the 2016 collective bargaining agreement. It also would increase the amount of time — 10 days to 15 days — that optioned players must spend in the minor leagues.
There were 737 players placed on the DL last season compared to 563 players in 2016 when the DL minimum changed from 15 days to 10 days. Teams were accused of falsifying injuries, particularly to pitchers, to manipulate their rosters.
No… teams would not do that, would they? 😉
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HAHAHAHAHAHA….
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Mish still likes the Braves:
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It really has begun to feel like it’s the Dodgers vs. the Braves, and it’s now a matter of which team is willing to outbid the other in prospect capital.
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So we’re in agreement… trade for JTR, sign Kimbrel and call it a day. Sounds good. Make it so.
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For those not paying attention, P&CR 3 weeks from today.
3 weeks!!
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Yea….
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Interesting comment by Heyman…
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After all is said and done, what do the Braves really need to put them over the top? A front line starter… or a shut down closer. Either one will work for me. They already have about 1/2 dozens starters in waiting so perhaps Kimbrel really is the answer. Think we can convince him to trim the facial hair?
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In 2019, I don’t think Kimbrel’s beard is an issue.
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Think not? Wait until mid summer in Atlanta with the temp around 95 and the humidity at 80% 🙂 Just saying…
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Just my personal opinion – but all that stringy hair on a man’s face is decidedly UNattractive. Bluto wanna-be. Makes me wince and I think, “I bet there’s a really nice looking man under there somewhere.” Just one woman’s thoughts – which is important to exactly no one. 😀
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If I were a betting man today, January 25, I would bet that the Braves make 1 more significant move that adds to the pitching staff and not the offense. That’s not to say there won’t be some additional tweaks to the bench and such, but as far as a real newsworthy move, I’m betting there is another one, and it adds a pitcher.
Just my gut. (Full disclosure: I had the ol’ #11 combo at my favorite cheap Mexican restaurant last night, so it could just be that…)
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#1 reason most teams are loath to offer contracts greater than three years for pitchers… Insurance….
I remember JS talking about how you could not get insurance to cover a player for more than three years.
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As this offseason has ground into it’s final couple of weeks, my opinions have changed more often than a politician up for re-election. But I am in agreement with you Gil that a lockdown late inning pitcher is the last real ingredient needed. We have starters, and as much as I would welcome Corey Kluber, those young starters are on the cusp of blossoming into something special. Let’s ride ’em. And as Heyman noted, our lineup is pretty solid with the potential to be explosive. Nick Markakis may not be flashy or exciting, but he’s steady as a rock and might be a better overall ingredient than some of the other names that we drooled over. If Josh Donaldson is the JD we all knew and loved before being sidelined last year, our lineup can put up some runs in a hurry, especially if Ender can get off to a good start.
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Ber, I’m just reporting…
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“According to major league sources, the Atlanta Braves have also been in contact with Machado’s camp.”
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Of course the Braves could then trade Dansby to the Marlins as part of the package for Realmuto
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Interesting. This is a move certainly made by the MLBPA with an eye toward media spin with the CBA showdown looming in 2 years.
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SPECULATION ALERT
So much chatter over the weekend… where to start…
I’ll start with the ramping up of the JTR rumors, and what I perceive to be a clear national media bias for the west coast teams. As for said bias, the national writers are now painting the trade derby as a 2 team race between the Padres and Dodgers. But what I have found is that they are looking at things only from the surface. (Imagine that!?!)
Here is what I have pieced together from reading a multitude of South Florida local writers.
There are still 5 teams that are sniffing around the trough trying to hang close in case the asking price falls to a reachable point. (It won’t for most.)
Of those 5 teams, 3 are actually engaging to some degree of seriousness, the order of which varies depending on the source. But those serious teams are the Padres, Dodgers and Braves. And the ask by Miami toward each of those 3 teams can also be somewhat pieced together.
From SDP, they are wanting top pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore, who is considered by MLB Pipeline as the #2 LHP prospect, and #13 overall, AND highly ranked catching prospect Francisco Mejia, who is considered by MLB Pipeline as the #2 catching prospect, and #26 overall. San Diego seems willing to consider both of these prospects, but are insisting on a window to negotiate a contract extension prior to pulling the trigger. Not only has Miami said “no” to SDP, they have let it be known that there will be no such window given to any team. So as much as the national media continues to push the Padres angle, they are probably dead in the water.
From LAD, they’d really like both Alex Verdugo, who is considered by MLB Pipeline as the #7 OF prospect, and #32 overall, AND Keibert Ruiz, who is considered by MLB Pipeline as the #3 catching prospect, and #39 overall. But Miami knows they won’t get both, so they are focusing more on Verdugo and current Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes (just 29 years old), plus some other unknown pieces to sweeten the deal.
Now Atlanta… and this is where it gets interesting. They have finally let go of insisting on Ozzie, and have turned their attention to one of either Austin Riley or Ender Inciarte, and reportedly prefer Ender. They are also insistent upon LHP Ian Anderson, and appear to be insistent upon him being the required pitcher. Flow would also have to be included to give them a ML quality catcher, but does leave them without a catching prospect for the future, so it’s not clear how they would want to address that. And according to more than one local writer, they prefer that package from Atlanta over the LAD prospects. Also from the same local writers, reportedly Atlanta is willing to trade Riley/Ender plus a pitcher other than Anderson. So the negotiations appear to be over that one item, with the question being who will blink first. Bottom line is that they want Anderson. Badly.
And that narrative begs the question, is this the deal that AA referred to as being 70% done with only secondary details still not agreed to? It kind of fits that description. They have a framework, just not the principals.
So let’s get down to some real speculation…
Might this also be why AA pulled the trigger on Nick, knowing that he might very well have to also fill CF (moving RAJ) as well as RF? And thus another OF move would follow? We need to remember that JTR is only on the hook for just over $5M this year and just under $6M next… extremely team friendly. Heck, Tyler Flowers is getting $4M, so including him almost negates JTR’s cost, and including Ender actually reduces payroll! So going after a bigger name OF is not out of the question.
And this is where I will stop speculating, because it does start to border on the unrealistic at this point…
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Mr. O’B also did some of his own opining this weekend, emphasizing that it is just his opinion and that there is nothing to base this on…
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So, you are telling me it has all come down to if the floor mats are included or not with JTR…. 🙂
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If any of that is close to correct, it just looks like the sticking point is Ian Anderson. They want him, AA wants to keep him. One writer flatly said if ATL would agree to Anderson, it’d be done. Of course, he also said if MIA would agree to Wright, it’d be done. So it looks like a matter of who blinks first.
FWIW, the Braves are in the driver’s seat. They don’t have to make the deal. No way JTR can open the season in Miami. No way. That would be a blunder on so many levels. So they have to get something done before it gets too much closer to March.
I’ll speculate that Ender + Kyle Wright + Flow + another lesser prospect (OF Greyson Jenista maybe?) might get it done. It could even expand to include their closer Drew Steckenrider if the Braves would include Christian Pache or Drew Waters as the 4th piece.
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So… Kluber or JTR? You just cannot trade Ender but once…
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For me personally, I’ll take Kluber. I think JTR might be more realistic, though.
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3D printer??
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Likely would be a little plastic but who knows? 🙂
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Interesting aside…
As completely secretive as our GM is, and in turn the whole Braves front office has become, the opposite appears to be true for ChiSox GM Rick Hahn. Here are his comments from this weekend, as reported by Scott Merkin of MLB.com (their version of Bowman):
“At one point, Las Vegas posted the odds of the six or seven most likely clubs to land either one of [Manny Machado and Bryce Harper], and we weren’t even listed. The fact that we are now sitting here in a potential position — or at least in a position where, if we don’t convert, people are going to be disappointed — I think is an important step forward for this organization.
“We belong at the table in these negotiations. We belong as part of these negotiations for premium talent, and regardless of what happens over the next several weeks with either of these two players, we plan to continue to be at the table and continue to attempt to convert on these guys. When we started this process a little over two years ago, we made it very clear that we were going to try to accumulate as much premium talent as we possibly could. It was never going to be about one player, and it’s not going to be about any singular free agent.
“Again, I’m not trying to hide the ball here. I will be personally disappointed. I will feel that on myself if we fail to convert. But if for whatever reason we do, we’re going to be right back at it again the next time this opportunity arises.
“Yes, we want to continue to convert on similar premium talent. We’re going to do that again in the Draft this year, and we’re going to continue to try via trade to add to it. And yes, we will continue to do it via free agency, regardless of what happens here over the coming weeks. The trajectory and the path we’re on doesn’t really change based on one individual player. It’s going to be about how the entirety of the core comes together — and we’re in a position to win for the long term.”
Well, not much kept in secret there, is there? He’ll be “personally disappointed” if he cannot sign one of Manny or Bryce. Kind of painted himself into a corner, though, didn’t he?
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Shades of Frank Wren and Rafeal Furcal…
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Lines up with what I read over the weekend…
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Let me be clear… I wouldn’t mind acquiring JTR, but if I had a choice, I’d take a stud starting pitcher instead.
Now, that said, I think including Ian Anderson would be a mistake. Of all the quality pitchers in the Braves pipeline, Anderson is one of maybe 2 guys that has “ace” potential. (I still love Mike Soroka; I’m just a little worried about the shoulder until I see him back to form with my own eyes.) I also like Kyle Wright, but he’s atop the next tier for me and I would include him for the right return. For JTR, I’d let him go if the rest of the package do not constitute an overpay. And by that I mean I would not do Wright, Ender, Gohara and another top 100 prospect. That’s just too much. Wright, Ender and Pache? Yeah maybe.
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MLBTR: Arm injuries kept Drew Smyly and Edinson Volquez from pitching at all in 2018 and limited Shelby Miller to just 16 innings. That trio’s now primed to occupy 60 percent of the Rangers’ rotation in 2019.
Crikey! Think about that for a minute…
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Shades of Beachy and Medlen. We saw what happens when a pitcher is pushed to return too soon. Arm feels great until it doesn’t. After all is said and done, 24 months appears to to be the optimal for a pitcher to return to full form after TJ surgery.
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A new Craig Mish prediction percentage:
https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/1089933213794029570
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Everything from Miami points to what we discussed earlier. The framework is in place, but the details are not. By all appearances, they want to receive Ian Anderson and the Braves want to send Kyle Wright. It looks to be that simple. Unless the Pads bump their offer and include both Gore and Mejia, it’ll come down to who caves first between AA and Jeter’s boys.
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And to reiterate, I’d rather to trade for a stud pitcher, Corey Kluber preferably. But I don’t get paid 7 figures to make these decisions, so…
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Well, sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make. I think I have gotten past the “buyer’s fever” … You know that point where you are past the point of “I have got to have it” to meh… Maybe I don’t really want it after all.
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All the noise on JTR right now seems to originate in Miami, so even though we are talking about it, it is still plausible. But just because there is no chatter on any other potential additions – i.e. starting pitchers, relievers, etc. – doesn’t mean there isn’t anything cooking. Stealth GM operates like a ninja.
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No surprise inclusions or exclusions.
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Jonathan India is the Reds version of Austin Riley except that he’s still about 2 years away from being ML ready.
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What helps Cincy is that they can include 28-year-old catcher Tucker Barnhart as part of the return package. Barnhart is a relatively average catcher, but he is capable and under contractual control for 2 more years at $4M AAV with a $7.5M team option for 2022 that will almost surely be bought out for $500K. They also have a couple of catchers in their Top 30 according to MLB Pipeline, each of whom are only a year or 2 away. Cincy could easily afford to include one of those in the return package as well. I wold think that if Cincy could do India, both Barnhart and a catching prospect, and an upper minor league pitcher (Lucas Sims?), that’d get it done.
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And there’s this:
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It seems too that the Fish have moved off wanting a ML’er and are now asking for 3 legit prospects. I assume that one of them is Ian Anderson. And it looks like AA is not willing to include him.
Mish said somewhere else that no offer has been put forth from either side, only discussion.
I don’t know how solid his sources are, but he’s had alot of info early that leaks out to more mainstream outlets a day or so later.
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ANother unsubstantiated rumor, since there’s nothing of substance to kick around today:
Rumor has it that Bryce Harper will announce today that he’s signing in Philly. (If that happens, it will not be a shock.) I imagine that whomever signs first between Bryce/Manny will prompt the other to announce fairly quickly after, followed by a cascade of signings as the trickle down effect takes course and unsigned players prepare to go to their new camp in 2 weeks.
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But what does Heyman know? If you look at the track record of all these writers this offseason, we have as much cred as he does. I’ll believe nothing until I see it happen.
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I just took a stroll through the remaining FA’s, and aside from the top guys – Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Kimbrel, Gonzalez – there isn’t alot still there that would turn my head. If you’re looking for an older pitching reclamation project ala Anibal Sanchez, Lucas Harrell, Bud Norris, etc., Clay Buchholz is still available. He’s a guy that could be primed for a good year on the cheap. So is Ervin Santana, a great dude, but not yet proven to be healthy after last season. Not sure OF Adam Jones would sign to be a bench player, but he’s still hanging around without a job too.
I’d still like to see a miracle Keuchel signing if we can’t trade for a starter, and a Kimbrel signing to compliment it if he’ll sign for less than 4 years. Not expecting miracles, though.
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Speaking of Dallas Keuchel, MLB.com’s Richard Justice said this yesterday:
“[Alex] Anthopoulos says he’s only interested in starting pitching if it’s a dramatic upgrade, that is, a front-of-the-rotation guy. There happens to be one of those left on the market: Keuchel, the king of soft contact who has a 3.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last five seasons. The Braves are a third-place club at the moment, according to FanGraphs. Keuchel would go a long way toward changing that.”
Keuchel is MLBTR’s #4 ranked FA after Bryce, Manny and Patrick Corbin. They pegged him for a 4 year / $82M deal, but given the state of this year’s market, that might be a tad ambitious. Still, #7 ranked Nathan Eovaldi garnered a 4 year / $67.5M deal despite his injury history. Keuchel gave the ‘Stros 204.2 strong innings last year, and even earned a Gold Glove along the way. So for the sake of this argument, let’s work with that 4 year / $82M figure. That’s a $20.5M AAV.
If you sign him, he’s at least the #2 behind Folty, and maybe the #1 Opening Day starter. And he checks all the boxes that lets you trade Julio and his $11M salary, meaning you’re only up about $9.5M. That easily falls into the budget.
If we can’t trade for a #1, maybe we could at least still sign one.
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Yes Vee, Thoppy plays his cards pretty close doesn’t he? A guy who can hurl 200 plus innings would be just the ticket given the young age of the rest of Atlanta’s staff. While the kids are loaded with talent, they are not really expected to pitch more than about 160 innings or so until their bodies fully mature. You just cannot fool Mother Nature unless you want a pitcher’s career cut shout like Doc Gooden or Mark Fydrich.
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Quick question: Anyone have any idea of how many minor league players a typical Major league club has under contract any give season? I am thinking maybe 200 but that might be a little high.
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New lead post is up! THANK YOU, VOR!
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I am less adverse to Dallas Keuchel than I was before (though still not sure a soft tosser can be THE guy in the playoffs) and we sure could use a 200 inning guy, but…it occurred to me, that in the DH league, not only can you leave a guy in longer because you don’t have to PH for him, you also will take Keuchel out in the 6th, in a 2-2 game if say there are runners in 2nd and 3rd. A guy that will likely hit .084 next year, will be pinch hit for a fair bit…
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