#193: Now What?

Vox O’Reason

Obviously there are a lot of moving parts to putting together a 2021 roster. There is the obvious question of budget, but also the remaining MLB mandates with regard to the DH and to roster size.

I imagine if things go back toward “normal”, there will not be an increased roster, but that really only means 2 less pitchers, right? 

At any rate, I think we can figure out most of the 2021 roster without concerning ourselves too closely with the rest of it. After all, we have a young and deep roster that only requires a couple of additions.

Here is my very early projection of the roster, with just a few of remaining highlighted questions:

Lineup:
Ronnie, RF (R)
MVFree, 1B (L)
??, DH [if there is one]
d’Arnaud, C (R)
Ozzie, 2B (S)
Dans, SS (R)
Duvall, LF (R)
Riley, 3B (R)
Pache, CF (R)

See the problem here? I feel like I keep harping on this, but there is a decided lack of LH bats here. And should Ozuna come back to be the DH, it’s only magnified. Seriously, I don’t think this works as is. And the only real place you can tweak that is in LF. So I am a little curious to see haw that’s addressed.

If there’s no DH, then I like Ozzie back in the 2 hole and Freddie at 3 with d’Arnaud still behind him at cleanup. Otherwise, Ronnie, Freddie, Marcell and Travis were a beastly 1-4. Why mess with that formula?

Now, the rotation:
Soroka
Fried
Anderson
Wright
Wilson
… or a FA veteran instead?

I believe Wright did enough at the end of the season to have an advantage for a spot, and I think Wilson also showed he’s capable. But I do not think either should be considered a lock, rather each still has to earn a spot. And if that competition involves one or more additional veterans, then amen and amen. The more the merrier.

Bullpen:
Smith (L) – closer
Martin (R) – closer
Minter (L)
O’Day (R)
Matzek (L)
Webb (R)

First, I believe the concept of the “9th inning closer” is fading away. The playoffs are proving that you better have more than one guy that can come in and get outs when the game’s on the line. Our own NLCS showed that games are won and lost in innings other than the 9th. That said, I believe these 6 I listed are very talented locks for the pen. And I think the other 2 spots will simply be a competition among returners Jackson (R), and Dayton (L) along with a handful of internal candidates. And once again, there will also be some other FA veterans in camp trying to earn jobs. And if Wilson doesn’t make the rotation, he’s gotta be a lock in the pen, right? Overall, the bullpen is likely the least concerning part of the team.

And finally, the bench:
William Contreras, C (R)
Ender, OF (L) —gotta pay him… he probably makes the roster
LH compliment to Duvall, OF (L)
Charlie Culberson, Util (R), maybe?
Better have another LH bench bat other than Ender. He’s gonna give you nothing offensively.

There is work to be done here. There always is.

So there’s a quick glance at a viable 26 man roster for the 2021 Braves. Gotta figure out DH or no DH, then acquire a LH bat for either DH or to platoon with Duvall. Need a veteran (or 2) to compete for a rotation spot. Need to flesh out the bench.

Pretty much sums it up.

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#192: HALFWAY HOME

Vox O’Reason

What do we know?Today as I sit here tapping these keys, the Braves have are on a scheduled off day right after they hit the halfway point of this 2020 pseudo-season, a truncated 60 game sample-sized version not to be confused with the real thing.

Or can it? It’s real enough that at some point a champion will still be crowned. It’s real enough that players are still going out and displaying some might impressive performances on any given night. The question has been raised by Chris, “Can this team really pull this off and win the east?” In a typical season we’d look at 30 games as a still somewhat small sample size. But this season is anything but typical, so we can only draw our conclusions on what we’ve seen already. And based on what I’ve seen, I absolutely believe the Braves can pull this off and win the East.

First, they currently sit (at the time of this writing) at 18-12 and firmly in 1st place in the NL East, 2 games ahead of the Marlins (or a reasonable facsimile of the Marlins) who haven’t actually played a half season yet. The 3rd place Phillies have a bullpen with more leaks than the White House. The 4th place Mets are… well, the Mets, and the last place Nats have yet to find a groove and have lost Steven Strasburg for the season to an office malady.

Let’s look at how we’ve arrived at this point. We lost 2 of our veteran starting pitchers before the season even started when Felix Hernandez opted out due to COVID and Cole Hamels couldn’t get his arm to cooperate. Then our ace Mike Soroka ruptured his Achilles tendon in his 3rd start of the year. The mercurial Mike Foltynewicz couldn’t throw the ball through a wet paper bag and was DFA’d, passed over by the other 29 teams, and assigned to Gwinnett. Young hopeful Kyle Wright couldn’t find the strike zone, and his replacement Touki Toussaint couldn’t find it either. We were left with Max Fried and little else. Did anyone have Robbie Erlin on their dance card this season? Until Ian Anderson tossed 6 innings in his ML debut just yesterday, no other Braves starter had even qualified for a decision. It’s been that scarce.

On the position side of things, Freddie Freeman got a late start as he battled with the new “C-word” during camp, and Nick Markakis was so freaked out over it he opted out of playing altogether. Of course, Nick did return to the team midway through the first half only to be ironically quarantined away from his peers again after being exposed to a C-19 positive person.

Both of our starting catchers were quarantined for the first week or so of the season forcing Snit to go with 2 completely unproven battery mates for his young and ever changing staff. Spark plug Ozzie Albies dealt with wrist soreness late in camp that carried over into the start of the season and had to go on the IL after just 11 games because of it. There is word that he’s still out there somewhere, trying to get back home… like ET, just different. But we’ve not seen hide nor tightly bunned hair of him in quite a while. There is recent word that he’s improving and will be back soon. That’s a good word.

Speaking of balky wrists, our local superstar Ronald Acuña, Jr. has just returned from missing 10 games himself. All in all, if not for Dansby Swanson and Marcell Ozuna, this team might have had very little offensive firepower. But those guys have more than stepped up along with newcomer Travis d’Arnaud, a resurgent Adam Duvall, and the rest of the team to propel us to the point where we now stand.We’re getting very close to having our projected everyday lineup healthy again.

So what’s ahead? Our 2 longest road trips are already over. Of our 30 remaining games, we go to Philadelphia and Boston for a short 6 gamer before coming home for 7. Then we hit the road for 4 in DC, then 3 each in Baltimore and Flushing before coming home for the final 7 game stretch run. Also, we’ve already played our games against the beasts of the AL East, the Yankees and Rays, and we’ve split both series. That’s a big positive because we won’t see the likes of them again unless it’s in the World Series. We also won the Jays series 2-1. The ones left are the sliding Orioles (14-16) and the abysmal Red Sox (10-21). Within our own division, only the young and unknown Marlins have a winning record (14-12) and their schedule is still incomplete. The Phils (12-14) are also short on finishes. The Mets (13-16) and Nats (11-17) complete the list of our 2nd half combatants.

There are still a handful of questions that have to be answered by our own home team. When will Ozzie be back? Will Austin Riley ever hit the ball consistently enough for his power to make a difference? Can Ian Anderson give us a few more starts that are anything close to his debut? Will Cole Hamels be back in time to make a difference? Can our stellar bullpen continue to stymie the opposition or will they be worn down by all the short outings from our rotation? And will Thoppy be able to bring in another pitcher to help provide a few more innings from the starting group? Those are all valid questions that will have to unfold before we can answer them.

But to be honest, I don’t think I need to know that to know this: I absolutely believe the Braves can pull this off and win the East.

#191: MLB 2020: The Season Made-For-TV

Vox O’Reason

Baseball continues to work on ways to open for games in an effort to retain as much of their TV revenue as possible. And before this post gets any further down the paragraph, let’s be clear about something. Do not fool yourselves; this is not about fans, this is not about tradition, this is not about players. This is about TV contracts… and rightfully so. TV revenue is the lifeblood of MLB in the modern era. If we want to see this game we love keep moving forward in the form that we are currently enjoying, we should all want to see the TV money continue flowing in. Every power-plant has a primary engine that makes everything else turn, and with baseball it’s the TV revenue. This season, if there is one, will be made-for-TV. Disclaimer: No fans will be harmed in the making of this season.

So that point accepted, how can baseball get going and get in as many games as possible while still keeping one eye glancing in the periphery toward player health and safety?

The talking suits at MLB are quick to point out that the schemes being considered “are not plans”. In fact, they are adamant that these are simply “ideas” that are constantly evolving. So in that vein, lets lay out the “ideas” as we have come to understand them.

Idea A was to play all the games in Arizona in the 10 Phoenix-area spring training ballparks, plus Chase Field. This would minimize travel, and theoretically exposure for players, since all 11 of those venues are within a 40-minute drive at maximum. But that <strike>plan</strike>, er… *idea* was fraught with many logistical hurdles. How do 30 teams play 15 match-ups in just 11 parks on a revamped schedule that needs to maximize the number of games in a condensed schedule? And how do you house 30 teams in 11 locations that were not designed to include dormitories?

That gave birth to Idea B, which was to split the league onto both coasts and let teams utilize their own spring training facilities in both ARI and FLA, plus the home parks for the D’backs, Rays and Marlins. This would result in defacto Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues for the regular season, with some configuration of league winners and runners up coming together for playoffs late in the year. Since both ARI and FLA have relatively mild fall and winter months, you could actually run games into October and November without game temps resembling Chicago and Denver in March. But as with Idea A, Idea B also has hurdles. Two leagues split into 15 team segments results in an odd team for each that would have to sit out every day on both sides. And the parks in FLA are a little more spread out with most team sites up and down the Gulf coast, with a handful across the state on the Atlantic coast. And of course, there is the infamous FLA weather.

The new idea being floated calls for a 3rd “hub” to be employed, that being in Texas. Yes, the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues would be joined by the… Longhorn League? Cowboy League? Oil Rig League? But I digress… Back on point, Idea C would split the league into three 10 team divisions that would use Phoenix (ARI), Arlington (TEX) with its surrounding area, and the gulf coast of FLA (plus Miami) as their “hubs”, with the divisions being distributed according to geography, and with some configuration of league winners and runners up coming together for playoffs late in the year. In other words, the 10 eastern-most teams would play in FLA, 10 western-most teams would play in ARI, and the rest would gather in TEX. This scheme would seem the most workable since it would put less of a logistical strain on each hub, would employ 3 even number subsets allowing all teams to have a match-up each day, and also reduce the chances of a single weather system wiping out half the possible games for an entire day or more.

I’ll be honest… for me personally, I realize that any type of season carried out in 2020 will be a strange metamorphosis of the typical season I’m familiar with. It’s simply not going to resemble anything I have come to know as “normal”. So that said, I’m open to and accepting of something that is fresh and entertaining. And I’m open to and accepting of things that are very non-traditional, given the circumstances. Certainly we’ll see a universal DH for this season. Likely, we’ll see creative uses of pitching staffs, including 6-man rotations, “openers”, etc. And since there will be more games played and less off-days, there will likely be expanded rosters with more players getting into the games, including some guys that might have opened the year on a minor league roster in a normal year. This is even more important given that minor league seasons are likely done for the year. All that together will make for a very unique season. And I’ll be perfectly happy with whatever form it takes if it gets the season rolling. The only thing harder to find in 2020 than toilet paper is live sports. I’m paying for Hulu Live for no other reason than live sports. For the last 2 months, that’s been the equivalent of tossing away $50 like an empty bottle of hand sanitizer. I need to get something for my hard earned cash. I’ll even watch live bowling if they’ll get something going. But again, I digress…

So for the Braves, what does this mean?

Well, a quick geographical survey would suggest that the Braves would play in a Grapefruit League that would consist of the Braves, Rays, Marlins, O’s, Nats, Phillies, Bosox, both NY teams, and the Jays. That would be really tough, but would also be really fun.

And our Braves are actually constructed quite well to play under the proposed modified rules. We have our DH in Marcell Ozuna. We have youth, depth and versatility to deal with double-headers and limited off days. We have 7 capable starting pitchers vying for 5 rotation spots, so expanding to 6 is easier than for most. We have the depth in our bullpen to cover 4 innings without hitting the panic button. And we have the talent at the top of our minor league system to fill the additional roster spots without skipping a beat.

Yep, this fan is ready to see 2020 begin to take form. It’s appointment TV.

#190: Hope Springs Eternal – Again

Gil
Mechanicsville

By the time this is posted, the pitchers and catchers will have likely reported to the Braves new spring training home in North Port, Florida. It is again that time of year for the players to shake off any rust which may have accumulated but with year round training programs employed by players today, little rust is expected.

The biggest stories going in this spring will be the losses of Josh Donaldson’s presence, and the absence of his bat and glove. The hope is the combination of Johan Camargo and Austin Riley at third will be potent enough to at least occasionally say “What Rain”?

Johan Camargo

Johan has worked hard during the off season to cut down on the bulk and increase the tone of his body in hopes of recapturing his agility afield. Who knows what caused him to fall in such a funk after being regulated to a bench role but he looked awful and played poorly both with his glove and his bat. It was only after his short stint in Gwinnett that his bat returned to play. That at least can give us some hope.

Austin Riley

Riley was the second coming of Roy Hobbs when he was first promoted but as soon as the book was out on him, his hitting dropped off and at times he looked completely lost. The thing every rookie goes thru is discovering when pitchers make adjustments, it is up to him to do the same. In an interview with Dave O’Brien he has indicated that he has worked on his pitch recognition. He is a young kid so I have hope he will return to his deep ball hitting prowess early in the season. The extra player allotted this season should open a spot for him on the roster.

Ozuna

The pick up of Marcell Ozuna for one year may or may not work out. We will have to see if his hitting philosophy adapts to the Braves hitting coaches and he can get past the urge to upper cut the ball. He is big and strong and doesn’t need to depend on tricks to hit home runs. To me, the only real question mark is the health of his right shoulder. If it hasn’t healed sufficiently, we will see a lot of teams run on him to take an extra base on balls hit to left.

Enders Incarte

Pache

Another question mark is if Ender Inciarte’s hamstrings will hold up. Any blip on the radar by Ender and he may find himself Wally Pipped and swapping places Cristian Pache’ in Triple A. Ender may still be in line as part of a trade package to make room on the 40 man roster.

Hernandez

The pen looks solid and it should be fun to watch Felix Hernandez try to earn a spot in the starting five against Sean Newcomb. Throw in highly touted prospect Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Touki Toussaint will make it fun to watch how they perform this spring. At least the Atlanta area folks will get a chance to see how they perform with 8 games schedule for TV this spring.

So kick back and watch the show, a new story everyday and remember, nothing happens in a vacuum. The rest of the NL East will still be looking to dethrone the Braves from the in season championship and the Braves will be playing with a chip on their shoulder thinking they missed their chance last year.

#189: Hot Stove Time! Light ‘Er Up!

Vox O’Reason

Donaldson

I’m beginning to form the opinion that there is an event to happen in the Braves organization that will be a direct cause/effect reality. I am beginning to form the opinion that if the Braves re-sign Josh Donaldson (and make no mistake, it will have to be for at least 3 years at big money), they will use Austin Riley in a trade to fill another need.

As you all know, I obsess over these things and read way too much from way too many sources. But this revelation seems to be an undercurrent everywhere I look. And the more I think about it, the more it makes sense and the more I believe it.

Austin Riley

The Braves have 4 major holes to fill before they start to feel the warmth of the the Fla Gulf Coast sun: they must add at least 1 and more realistically 2 starters, 1 of which must be of the top-of-the-rotation variety; they must fill the hole at 3B; they must fill the hole at catcher; they must fill the hole in LF. Now that’s not to say there aren’t other areas that can’t be improved or augmented, but those core 4 items must be specifically addressed if the Braves intend to not only repeat as NL East champs, but actually progress far enough to play for the NL pennant.

And the Braves are not a team that is going to stroll into the off-season with the checkbook open, reeling in Free Agents like bass in a stocked pond. That’s not to say they won’t break off a guy… maybe even 2. But 2 guys can’t fill 4 holes. There will be trades made.

And somebody of quality has to be included.

Maybe AA signs 2 top pitchers after seeing what actually makes it to the World Series, and leaves 3B for Riley to grow into. Maybe he signs his pitcher and catcher. Maybe he surprises everyone and signs a power bat for LF.

Or maybe he spends big on 3B. At that point, can he afford to hold onto Riley when other teams might supply us with a catcher or pitcher for a good 3B prospect? I don’t think he can.

I am of the opinion that Josh Donaldson and Austin Riley will not be on the same team in 2020. The Braves simply cannot afford that luxury.

What say you? And whom would you rather have over the next 3 years?

A few notes on an otherwise boring Monday…

After reinstating all the players on the 60-day IL, as is required 5 days after the World Series ends, the Braves 40-man roster currently sits at 32. Since there is a need to protect a handful of eligible prospects from this year’s Rule 5 draft, this is good news. But given that we must also add a few players to round out the major league roster, there will be some tough decisions that have to be made. And the deadline to make these decisions is Nov. 20, just 8 days away.

First, there is a whopping 25 Rule 5 eligible players in the Braves minor league system this year. I’m not sure how this ranks with other teams, but it doesn’t really matter. That’s a lot. And there will surely be some players that do not get protected that we will lose.

Among those who will surely get added to the 40-man roster in the next week are:

T Davidson

Pache

 

Cristian Pache. This one is obvious…. a no-brainer. Also no-brainers are pitchers Tucker Davidson, Jasseel De La Cruz, and Thomas Burrows. Another player who should require no debate is catcher William Contreras.

 

 

Wm Contreras

T Burrows

J de la Cruz

Now if you’re keeping count, that’s 5 players. Remember, we started with just 8 open slots in total. And while you have to keep one eye open to the fact that any Free Agent you sign to a major league deal is going to require a spot, that should not dominate this process yet. After all, for every FA you sign, you can use a corresponding move to bump someone off the bottom of the list. For instance, if we sign a catcher, Alex Jackson is likely placed on waivers. (Speaking of catchers, John Ryan Murphy will not remain on the 40-man roster very long himself. But with only 3 catchers on the roster as it’s currently assembled, AA cannot just cut him loose yet. Or perhaps Murphy’s fate is sealed once Contreras is added. That is possible. But I digress…)

Clouse

Pfeifer

Anyway, there are a still a couple of players who will almost certainly be selected if not protected. Those include pitchers Philip Pfeifer and Corbin Clouse. I think one or both of them are easy goners if left unprotected.

Other players of note that are eligible: P Josh Graham and SS Ray-Patrick Didder. I doubt either of them would be drafted since they would have to remain on the drafting team’s active roster for the entirety of the 2020 season. But a guy like Didder could be taken by some team in need of a versatile and speedy defender.

If I had to guess right now, I’d say they do protect the “no-brainer 5” I listed above, and cut loose JRM… leaving them with a little flexibility even after the 5 additions. But to add more than 5 is asking alot. How much do they like Pfeifer and Clouse? We’ll see in the next week.

Of course, I could be totally wrong about all of it. It wouldn’t be the first time.

More randomness because I am bored…

2019 playoff teams and their 2019 Opening Day payroll ranking:

#5 Nationals = $197,287,505 (World Series, champs)
#7 Astros = $188,624,429 (World Series)
#2 Yankees = $226,718,875 (ALCS)
#12 Cardinals = $168,097,083 (NLCS)
#4 Dodgers = $198,063,010 (NLDS)
#16 Braves = $138,401,048 (NLDS)
#17 Twins = $134,935,267 (ALDS)
#28 Rays = $88,817,567 (ALDS)

If the Braves want to elevate their season ending position, they might want to consider elevating their payroll position.

Just sayin’…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#188: Now What?

Vox O’Reason

Mostly thawed, and looking ahead at what the needs are for this ballclub going into 2020. This is a young team with a great core intact, so you’d think there wouldn’t be much to have to fill in, but that’s not necessarily correct. There are some major holes in this lineup and pitching staff that must be filled.

First, let’s not forget that the team has a whopping 10 members of the final 25 man roster that is entering FA. That does include the retiring Brian McCann. Aside from those 10, there are 3 more for whom the team holds a team option, and another where there is a mutual option. That’s a major portion of the 25 man roster.

Looking more deeply, the biggest spots we will have to fill are 3B, starting pitching, and catching. We’ll also need at least 1 OF and maybe 2. Our bench will take a slight hit, but most of our bench will return.

J Donaldson

 

Bullet point #1: Will the Braves bring back Josh Donaldson? Published reports say there is mutual interest, and recent quotes from both sides seem to bear that out. But he will be expensive, and will likely require a 3 year commitment. While I personally believe he’s worth that, there is more to this equation which I will address next.

 

Dallas Keuchel

Bullet point #2: When the Braves took a flyer on Dallas Keuchel, I thought it was the perfect move for the team. Looking back, I still believe it was a good move for both the Braves and for DK. But the Braves wanted him for one main purpose. Help carry a young staff into the postseason, and will the big postseason games. We can check off the first box, but not the second. And I think that’s significant. I cannot see a scenario where he returns to the Braves for another stint. That creates a huge void in the starting rotation that must be filled. The team once again will be seeking a veteran presence for their young staff. If you think Julio is that guy, I respectfully disagree. I expect (I at least hope) that the team will decline Julio’s 2020 option and let him go elsewhere. That leaves us with defacto team ace Mike Soroka and up-and-down Mike Folty– as the only established starters for 2020. I believe Max Fried has also earned a spot, or at least he should have one to lose. But that’s just 3 of the necessary 5, not counting any depth we want to keep.

Matt Joyce

Bullet point #3: The bench will really only lose Matt Joyce, who is a FA and could sign elsewhere to start or at least platoon. Could he re-sign here? I suppose it’s possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Rafael Ortega did a nice job in his opportunities, and is more versatile in the OF. He’s cheap, too. With Charlie, Johan, and Duvall all expected back, the bench should be fine. It needs to be noted that Billy Hamilton has a mutual option included in his contract, so there is at least a small chance he could return. But at $7.5M, it’s not likely.

 

Nick Markakis

Bullet point #4: Nick Markakis has very likely played his last game for the Braves. The team holds an option on him for 2020, but his disappearing act in October probably sealed his exit. I appreciate all that he has done for the team for the last 5 years, but it’s time for someone else to fill his spot.

Bullet point #5: Catching. Needs no explanation.

 

Mark Melancon

Bullet point #6: The bullpen. Mark Melancon will be back. Personally I think that’s a good thing. Shane Greene will also return. That’s a pretty strong back end returning. We should also return a healthy Jacob Webb, who was as good as we had in the pen before he got hurt. Losing Josh Tomlin (FA) will hurt a bit, but the fact is that pitchers like him are a dime a dozen, and most easily picked up just like he was… late in spring training. I can see that happening again in 2020.

So what does that all mean?

This is what this fan sees as the roadmap for the front office starting right now. Job #1 for AA and staff is to decide if they want to pour their big money into bringing back Josh Donaldson or a starting pitcher. I don’t think they can do both. The kind of pitcher we need will cost alot. I think AA needs to be in the Gerrit Cole derby, but that would eliminate any possibility of paying JD also. So the question must be asked and answered; Do we spend big on JDon, or on a pseudo-ace type pitcher? What say you find Stuffians on that one? There is just over $56M committed for 2020, so there will be money to spend. It won’t be of the Yankees proportion, but there is funding for some significant deals.

For me personally, I would love to see JD come back. I think he was perfect for this team and lineup this year. But if I have to choose… I’m choosing pitching. Austin Riley obviously has some work to do, but we’ve seen the potential he has. We can more easily address the 3B void from within over starting pitching. You cannot just grow an ace pitcher. Those take time to develop. And as we’ve witnessed painfully just this week, pitching is the key to postseason success.

We still don’t have an ace. Soroka is emerging, but he’s still just 22. And even at that, if you want to win, especially in the postseason, you better have a strong 1-2 punch. I want to see Cole/Soroka at the top of my rotation. And to be honest, I’d still take MadBum over a JDon reunion. MadBum would be a great fit, especially since he’s a lefty. He also won’t cost as much as Cole. Zack Wheeler? That’s a tough one. He’s gonna cost ya good bit, and has a history of not staying healthy. He falls on my list because of that. Still, when healthy, he’s a good one. I’m not looking at any other pitchers in FA. My standards are high. Caveat: If Steven Strasburg opts out of his deal, which he can do, he becomes my #1 target. I go after him hard and I pay him. I like him that much. Plus if we sign him away from the Nats, we don’t have to hit against him.

In the OF, Ender is still under contract even though he’s easy to forget about. His trade value is low, so I doubt he goes anywhere before the season. And his eventual replacement, Cristian Pache, is more likely to be a mid-season callup over making the team out of spring. But you still need a LF, so you can either address it in FA or via trade. But be careful, the trade capital is starting to run thin, and we need what we have to use in filling the biggest lineup void which I will mention shortly. If you address LF in FA, then it’ll not be Marcell Ozuna as he’ll come with a hefty price tag. I think we spend all our big money on pitching. We’ll need someone on a short deal anyway as Drew Waters will be coming up in another year if not sooner. A guy like Corey Dickerson might be a good fit. He bats LH and has plenty of power. He’d fit nicely into the lower part of the lineup where Mac and Flowers typically bat.

Speaking of Mac and Flowers…

Flowers

Brian McCann

This is where I think the Braves front office really has to do their work this offseason. It’s time to address the catching position with more than spit and duct tape. Mac is retiring and Flow is here only if the Braves pick up the team option. Thoppy needs to use what remaining prospect capital he has to get a catcher. And I’m not talking about a middling catcher to split time with Flow. I’m talking about a long term answer to start 120 games. It’ll cost him either Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson, and maybe Drew Waters too. But you have to give quality to get quality. You can afford to give up the pitchers if you sign an ace. Untouchable Ian Anderson will also be ready soon, so the rotation will not need the minor league influx as much as we have needed it in recent years. We need pitching depth now more than a steady stream… but I digress. Back on topic, what catching answers might be available? Honestly, I have no idea. But that’s what Thoppy and Co. get paid the big bucks for, right?

So to capsulize: Sign a veteran pseudo-ace starting pitcher, add a LF, trade for a cornerstone catcher, fill in the gaps.

Easy right?

One note: I did not take into account the pre-arb and arb raises for guys who fall into that category when I noted the Braves 2020 salary commitment at just over $56M. RosterResource estimates the total payroll before any new additions to be in the neighborhood of $73M. Still, that leaves alot of flexibility to add quality players to this team for 2020.

#187: The Home Stretch

Gil
Mechanicsville, VA

04 Sept 2019

It is finally September and the Braves go into the home stretch with a slim 5 1/2 game lead over the pesky and tenacious gNats. I will be the first to admit that after the pre-season flourish of acquisitions by the Phillies, Mets and Nationals, I had picked the Braves to finish the season in 2nd place in the division behind Philadelphia. The current standings should give everyone a good understanding of why I am not very good at picking winners and losers.

As it stands, the Braves continue to hold serve over the Nationals who apparently were recharged by Max Scherzer’s “black eye” game. Since that game the Nationals have been on a tear and have refused to lose. Still, the Braves have kept the Nats at arm’s length by winning at a nice clip too. Can the Braves continue to keep the Nations playing for a wild card spot and not the division crown? September will tell the tale. The two teams have 7 head to head games in September, four in Atlanta and three in DC. The Braves also have seven games left with the fading Phillies and three in New York with the Mets to end the season.

By trailing the first place Braves by 5-1/2 games, the burden is clearly on the Nationals. The Braves are in a position to run out the clock on the season but methinks los Bravos will not be content to simply play out the string. I believe they truly want to make a statement that they are the “Beast of the East” and all play-offs once again go through Atlanta. The Nationals, in addition to seven games left with the Braves have three with the Mets and four with Philadelphia. Both of those series are at home for the Nats but they also have to face the Twins, the Cardinals and the Indians. The Braves remaining foes include games against White Sox, the Royals and the Blue Jays.

While the games are not played on paper, the Braves do appear to have the easier path to the NL East title. As good as the Nationals are playing right now, they were horrible in April and May once again proving that while you cannot win a title at the beginning of the season, you can certainly lose one.

Billy Hamilton

Francisco Cervelli

Adeiny Hechavarria

Now a word about the addition of Adeiny Hechavarria, Francisco Cervelli and Billy Hamilton. All those bad thoughts I had about Alex Anthopoulos I here-by rescind. Three players who were discarded by their former teams were claimed of waivers by the Braves and it was as if AA was able to wave a magic wand which sparked new life into a tired team. All three have had a role in sparking victories over the Mets and the Blue Jays. The trades for three bullpen arms at the trading deadline has also borne fruit with Martin, Green and Mark Melancon all contributing to shoring up a sagging and spotty relief corps.

So as we head down the home stretch with only the Nationals in a position to challenge the good guys, I am not counting our chickens quite yet but I do like the Braves’ chances to defend the flag.

#185: Half-way Home, Let’s Hope We Are Not Caught In A Rundown.

Gil from Mechanicsville

27 Jun 2019

 

The Braves have completed the first half of the 2019 season and somewhat surprisingly, they are 4 1/2 games ahead of the Phillies who are maintaining the second slot.

The Washington Nationals have hit a soft spot in their schedule and are making a push towards the top but are one game under 500 and sit 7-1/2 games behind the 1st place Braves.

The Mets have taken a nose dive towards the cellar and look to vie with the Marlins for last place in the division. So, there is still a long way to go in the season and as we all know, any team is only one major injury away from having to cash it in for the season. That is, any team not named the Yankees or the Dodgers who are so deep they appear able to withstand just about anything other than a plane crash.

The Braves are currently in the middle of a 10 game road trip. They took two out of three from the Nats and split a four game series with the Cubs in Chicago. Perhaps more importantly, they have won the season series with the Cubs 5 game to 2. This could be important if the Cubbies manage to win the NL Central.

The Braves are now on their way to New York for three game date with the struggling Mets before heading home to finish up the first half prior to the All-star break. They will play 3 games against the Phillies and 3 with the Marlins.

That means the Braves have 9 games before they take a much deserved break. By tomorrow, we will learn which of the Bravos will be playing in Cleveland. I am pretty sure the Braves will be well represented, let’s hope none get hurt.

NL Standings as of 27 June 2019:

National League – East

1		Atlanta Braves	48	34	.585	0	24-17	24-17	445	400	45	16-11	44-32
2		Philadelphia Phillies	43	38	.531	4.5	27-17	16-21	391	387	4	20-17	38-35
3		Washington Nationals	39	40	.494	7.5	21-19	18-21	396	383	13	21-17	36-39
4		New York Mets	37	45	.451	11	20-14	17-31	390	423	-33	19-19	33-42
5		Miami Marlins	30	48	.385	16	13-27	17-21	273	350	-77	12-24	25-44

National League – Central

1		Chicago Cubs	44	37	.543	0	29-16	15-21	411	348	63	13-11	37-31
2		Milwaukee Brewers	43	38	.531	1	25-17	18-21	399	405	-6	20-12	40-31
3		St. Louis Cardinals	40	39	.506	3	24-18	16-21	358	349	9	15-17	36-33
4		Pittsburgh Pirates	38	41	.481	5	17-19	21-22	371	425	-54	12-14	28-37
5		Cincinnati Reds	36	42	.462	6.5	19-17	17-25	336	296	40	13-19	30-35

National League – West

• 1		Los Angeles Dodgers	55	27	.671	0	34-9	21-18	425	300	125	24-10	54-24
  2		Colorado Rockies	42	38	.525	12	22-15	20-23	444	424	20	18-16	35-34
  3		Arizona Diamondbacks	41	41	.500	14	17-22	24-19	423	376	47	14-25	32-37
  4		San Diego Padres	40	40	.500	14	21-20	19-20	361	388	-27	16-17	33-37
  5		San Francisco Giants	34	45	.430	19.5	16-23	18-22	306	399	-93	18-22	28-38

 

#184: Sorting Through Fact &Fiction

Vox O’Reason

22 April 2019
Northeast, GA  (God’s country)

 

 

As we sit here on this beautiful Monday following Easter, the Braves are only 21 games into their 162 game schedule, yet seemingly the sky has already begun falling all over the city of Atlanta.

[DISCLAIMER: While some may perceive I’m throwing shade at a lot of fans here on the ol’ B&S and elsewhere, I am including myself right in the middle of the criticism.]

Yes, even though the NL East is universally perceived as the toughest in MLB this season, as is evidenced by the fact that as of today only 1.5 games separate the division leader from 4th place, and even though the Braves are currently just 1 game behind the division leader, the prevailing thought is that this team is incomplete and sputtering. And just about every pointing finger is directed at the bullpen.

Yes, the bullpen has been bad at times. It has also been good at times, but let’s face it… the bad always seems to be magnified more than the good. And I believe that’s especially true here in Atlanta where we went onto this past off season knowing we needed to address the bullpen.

Then we entered into the new season with very little change. In fact, we didn’t add anyone from outside the organization at all until we picked up Josh Tomlin from the proverbial scrap heap. We certainly didn’t make any headlines by signing any one of a number of top names available on the Free Agent market. And if we’re really honest, that’s what everyone is most upset about, right? The Braves didn’t spend any money on the bullpen. In fact, that narrative has been sharpened a bit more to say that the Braves promised to spend money, have money to spend, yet didn’t spend a dime on the bullpen. Am I right? I’m guilty. I admit it.

But perhaps it’s not quite that easy. Oh, I know it’s always easy to spend someone else’s money. But is it always the right answer? I’ve done a little digging this morning, and have discovered something fairly interesting. So hang in here with me while I go down the lost of top relievers that were available this past off-season, according to MLBTR. Here’s a comprehensive list of all the relievers in their Top 50 Free Agent list, along with the contracts they signed and the results the teams are getting for their stacks of dollars:

#5  Craig Kimbrel remains unsigned despite the cries of most of Braves Nation, and maybe the other twenty-nine fan-bases, as well, because so far, all thirty teams have passed on his demands.

 

#17 Jeurys Familia signed with the Mets for 3 yrs/$30M. He has appeared in 10 games, has a 5.59 ERA, and a 1.966 WHIP. He’s also become a favorite target of the NY newspapers.

 

 

#18  Zach Britton signed with the Yankees for 3yrs/$39M, has appeared in 10 games, and has a 2.89 ERA with a 1.393 WHIP. This is a signing that seems to be working out OK for the Yankees, who have Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Adam Ottavino taking most of the high leverage innings. I say “OK”. Not great, but OK.

 

 

#19  David Robertson signed with the Phillies for 2ys/$23M. He’s appeared in 7 games, has a 5.40 ERA with a 2.100 WHIP. Not very good. He has also spent ten days on the IL with a sore elbow.

 

 

 

#21  Adam Ottavino signed with the Yankees for 3yrs/$27M. He’s appeared in 10 games, has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.455 WHIP. He gave up 2 home runs yesterday, turning a 5-2 lead into a 6-5 deficit. Another “OK” signing.

 

 

#24  Andrew Miller signed with the Cardinals for 2yrs/$25M. In 11 games he has a 7.04 ERA and a 2.087 WHIP. I’m no professional pitching coach, but I don’t think a 7.04 ERA is very good. To the contrary, one of our favorite whipping boys, Jesse Biddle, actually has a respectable 2.38 ERA.

#25  Joe Kelly signed with the Dodgers for 3yrs/$25M. He’s appeared in 9 games, has a 9.90 ERA, and a 1.900 WHIP. And, he’s already blown three save chances.

 

 

#26  Kelvin Herrera signed with the White Sox for 2yrs/$18M. He’s appeared in ten games, as a 1.86 ERA and a 0.828 WHIP. He has easily been the best of this whole bunch. This one was a good deal.

 

#34  Joakim Soria signed with the A’s for 2 yrs/$15M. He has appeared in twelve games, has a 7.84 ERA, and a 1.839 WHIP. Yowser. Ugly!

 

 

#37  Cody Allen signed with the Angels for 1yr/$8.5M. He’s appeared in nine games, has a 6.14 ERA, with a 1.636 WHIP. This is the guy the writers at MLBTR projected would sign with the Braves. I’m glad he didn’t.

 

#40  Bud Norris signed a Minor League deal with the Blue Jays. He was eventually released and almost signed by the Nats….except he wasn’t. I hear Uber needs drivers.

 

 

#41  Brad Brach signed with the Cubs for 1yr/4.35M. The former Brave has appeared in eight games, has a 4..50 ERA and a 2.125 WHIP. Five current Braves relievers have a better ERA, and a 6th misses by just 0.20.  All eight have a better WHIP.

 

#44  Jesse Chavez signed with the Rangers for 2yrs/$8M. The 35-year-old has appeared in ten games, has a 9.31 ERA with a 1.759 WHIP. That’s pretty close to the same numbers for Chad Sobotka who is still a kid and time to continue developing.

 

 

So, what exactly is the point of this exercise?

The point is that this fan is now quite happy that his GM didn’t go out and throw money at one or more of these relievers hoping to “fix” the bullpen, because only one of these twelve signings appears to actually be earning his contract.

Naturally, I had the benefit of hindsight to make these judgments. GMs don’t have that same luxury. They live or die by making assessments and hoping for the best.

Relievers are the one segment of the team that you simply can never predict, as is evidenced by those relievers above. Perhaps if we give our own group of pitchers more than just 21 games out of 162, we might see some improvement.  At worst, we’ll see a better picture of exactly what we have and what we need.  Then we can look at those needs with a better perspective and address them with more options than just throwing money at them.

 

 

#182: So What Is The Winning Formula?

Vox O’Reason

Sitting here in God’s country in the foothills of the beautiful North Georgia mountains, it’s awful easy to speculate as to whom I want to see the Braves sign or trade for. After all, I’m spending someone else’s money and prospect capital, right? Who doesn’t want a job where they get to have all the fun with no accountability?

As this year’s Hot Stove season winds down to a just couple of weeks remaining, I can look back at all the players I’ve wished for. From Madison Bumgarner to JT Realmuto to Corey Kluber to Andrew McCutchen to Ryan Haniger to David Peralta to Sonny Gray to Bryce and Manny, etc., there really are a lot of players at a lot of positions. It would look like the Braves had a lot of needs to fill, even though it was really just a brief list…

Needs: catcher, outfielder
Wants: starting pitcher, reliever, bench

Nick Markakis

Brian McCann

In reality, our new buddy Alex Anthopolous has addressed our needs, to arguable degrees. He brought home our old friend Brian McCann. And while I cannot think of a better teacher and mentor for our young pitchers, I also cannot with full sincerity say he and Tyler Flowers together can handle 162 games behind the plate. I just can’t. AA also brought back Nick Markakis, an integral piece of last year’s success story, but not a sexy or well received signing. In fact, it was divisive at best. But the fact remains, he addressed the “needs”. Fancred’s Jon Heyman even said, “After signing Markakis, Braves have very solid team and no obvious flaws.”

That’s the equivalent of being told your blind date is really smart and has a great personality.

But let’s get real here. The goal of every GM should be to put together a team that can contend for and win a World Series. Yes, I know we’ve just emerged from a rebuild where there were a few seasons that we were simply not going to contend.

I still feel the residual sting from those years. But a GM still *wants* the team to succeed. And when a team is in position to contend, that GM wants to put together the winning formula to make it happen.

Ah… and that’s the rub isn’t it? Exactly what is the winning formula? Obviously, if I knew that I wouldn’t be sitting in my office, I’d be in a executive office somewhere. But here’s what I can do. I can look back at several World Series winners and see what they have in common. What is it that binds them all together?

Looking back at the last 10 World Series winners, I found the following…

2018 Red Sox: Starting pitchers Chris Sale and David Price, relievers Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.

2017 Astros: Starters Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, Jr., who got injured and was replaced by Justin Verlander, relievers Ken Giles and Chris Devenski.

2016 Cubs: Starters Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, relievers Hector Rondon and Aroldis Chapman.

2015 Royals: Starters Danny Duffy and Edison Volquez, relievers Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera.

2014 Giants: Starters Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum, relievers Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt.

2013 Red Sox: Starters Jon Lester and John Lackey, relievers Koji Uehera and Andrew Miller.

2012 Giants: Starters Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum, relievers Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo.

2011 Cardinals: Starters Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia, relievers Fernando Salas and Jason Motte.

2010 Giants: Starters Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner, relievers Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo.

2009 Yankees: CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, relievers Mariano Rivera and Phil Hughes.

Are we seeing the pattern here?

Obviously all of those teams had potent hitters in their lineups. And so do the Braves. I don’t need to regurgitate our lineup here. But if we want to put a winning team on the field, one that can not only dance during the regular season, but succeed in October especially, we better have a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation and we better have some shut down capability at the back end of the bullpen. Period. Those qualities are simply not negotiable.

Close your eyes and remember Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Mark Wohlers, Rafael Soriano, etc. Fits the pattern, doesn’t it?

So I say all that to say this, on January 28 as the Braves appear to still be chasing Miami’s catcher. Abandon the hunt. Pull back the dogs and turn that attention toward Cleveland and go get Corey Kluber. The same prospect package that would bring back the All-Star catcher will certainly bring back the All-Star pitcher. Get him. And then go sign Craig Kimbrel. The prospect capital is there and the money is there; just go spend it.

 

 

Then maybe next year I can add to the above list “2019 Braves: Corey Kluber and Mike Foltynewicz, relievers Craig Kimbrel and AJ Minter.”

 

 

 

 

#181: Baby It’s Cold Outside

Gil in Mechanicsville, VA

As we trudge into winter, Braves fans everywhere, but most particularly here in Stuffville, are hoping that the hot stove will heat up during MLB’s winter meetings in California this week. The Braves spent $25 million dollars on two players, 3rd baseman Josh Donaldson and catcher Brian McCann, but really only added to their bench with the signings. That is, it allows the Braves to move erstwhile 3rd baseman Johan Camargo to serve as a super sub, the role most in the Braves front office envisioned for the young Panamanian to begin with.

Donaldson inked a one year deal with the Braves which allows the Braves to further evaluate their now number one prospect, Austin Riley, as their future 3rd baseman. Riley who is only 21 years old has shown the propensity for big power and has steadily improved his defense since his being drafted 41st over all in 2015 by the Braves. There is no way to know if Riley will indeed ever play in the majors as a Brave or if he will be included as part of a package for a number one starter or possibly for Marlins catcher J T Realmuto.

So, with that in mind, we should bear in mind the Braves primary needs going into the off season were: A) A front line ace to lead the young Braves pitching staff; B) An outfielder to replace free agent Nick Markakis; C) Bullpen help (either a closer or set up man); and D) Bench help/ power bat to protect Freddie Freeman in the line up.

So far, the Braves have made several moves around the periphery with McCann, who while it is a feel good story in his return to Atlanta, is questionable as to how much he can add to the Braves line up as a catcher who can catch a fair number of games in tandem with Tyler Flowers.

The Nationals made a major acquisition in signing free agent pitcher Patrick Corbin who will be slotted as the number three starter in their solid starting pitching staff and the Mets made a major trade to acquire shut down closer Edwin Diaz and aging 2nd baseman Robinson Cano from the Seattle Mariners. There should be no question that both moves have made the NL East a much stronger division. To be sure, the path to winning the divisional pennant will be a tough one foe every team.

So, as we wait and watch for the Braves to make the moves necessary to shore up the team and plot a course to repeat as NL east champions, we all should remember the games still have to be played and while it is nice to compare stats, we can point to the Nationals epic fail in 2018 despite having the best team on paper by far.

 

#180: ARMS!

by Gordon Lawrence

 

Arms, arms, arms……..

Foltynewicz

FOLTYNEWICZ was exposed by L.A.’s hitters. He stepped up a notch this season, but needs two more to become a #1. I really don’t see him as such going forward.

At this point, he’s ultimately a #2 to my mind. Not enough patience yet. Not getting the calls so, he hurls a fat one, and “boom,” rocket over the fence. Still getting frustrated by calls when the pitch is an excellent borderline one, but the ump calls a ball. Hasn’t learned to adjust to what the ump is calling in that particular game. Very important consideration to becoming a seasoned pitcher.

NEWCOMB should hold a slot. He should improve as he learns how to pitch. Takes time, several years as a starter.

Anibal Sanchez

Kevin Gausman

I liked GAUSMAN and SANCHEZ well enough to bring back to spring training to compete, but I wouldn’t automatically grant either of them a slot.

I really have had my fill of TEHERAN. Hopefully, we have enough qualified candidates after spring training to trade him.

Mike Soroka

I consider the shoulder malady to SOROKA the most egregious arm injury this season. He would have been a rising star in the pitching corps this year in my estimation, and I believe in the minds of all the bloggers here as well. Frankly, I think his injury to be a very serious one.   More serious than has be advertised by the organization to this point. I have feared it might actually be career ending. I’m wrong, right?

Touki Toussaint

TOUKI TOUSSAINT will grab the #4 slot out of spring training. I really liked what i saw of him in the post-season. I think the kid’s really got a future with ATLANTA.

Luiz Gohara

If LUIZ GOHARA finally takes his conditioning seriously, he could become a force in the starting rotation. Hopefully, personal family distractions are behind him at this point. I really hope the 2018 season made an impression on his mind, and he approaches 2019 with a will to excel.

Kyle Wright

KYLE WRIGHT appears poised for his first serious look at the 25-man this spring and a/the #5 slot.

 

Bryse Wilson

I really like BRYSE WILSON as a AAA/ATL floater in 2019. He’s a bulldog with the will to succeed.

Patrick Weigel

Darren O’Day

When thinking of bullpen holes to be patched for 2019, DARREN O’DAY and PATRICK WEIGEL come to mind as two potential candidates for the BRAVES. Spring training should show us where we stand with them.

Who should find a place in the 2019 bullpen?

AJ Minter

The whole danged place is such a MASH unit of maladies, and ineptitude, RH A.J. MINTER appears as the only rock-solid carryover to my mind, and he’s still getting OJT learning to pitch and not just throw. Back-end member.

VIZCAINO if he can stay healthy for the back-end as well. Big if.

I somehow see MAX FRIED in the pen for long-relief. Call me crazy.

SAM FREEMAN was overused and exposed, but used judiciously, he is effective.

Ditto JESSE BIDDLE, and JONNY VENTERS.

Vizcaino

Max Fried

Sam Freeman

Jesse Biddle

Johnny Venters

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, my two and 1/2 cents at this point.

GO BRAVES…..

 

 

 

Gordon Lawrence

#179: The Season Through Our Eyes

          CL

Thought you might enjoy seeing our own comments through the season….

 

22 Feb 2018, VOR wrote:

“I want the Braves to win this year. I really do. But I want them to win over the next 10      years too. Blowing a big wad in 2018 won’t give our young pitchers the experience they  need, and it won’t guarantee us even a division title this year. But it will slow down the final lap of the long rebuild.

The smart executive will allow Nick Markakis to play out his deal this year and take what you get from     him in RF. He will keep Ronald Acuna in AAA for April before starting his ML clock. He will allow his young pitchers to learn in the fire and take the hits this year. He’ll watch the team struggle again in 2018.

But in 2019, he’ll have young stud pitchers with real ML experience. He’ll have a budding star in the OF to go along with an established gold-glover. And he’ll have an opening, but he’ll also have means to fill out his young and talented roster with a that one complimentary player that will make the difference.”

1 Mar 2018, VOR wrote:

“Bullpen candidate Luke Jackson should be thanking his lucky stars that he at least got 1 out this spring. That’s all he’s gotten, but at least he did get one. His line this spring looks like this: 0.1 IP, 108.00 ERA, 3 H, 5 R (4 ER), 2 BB, 0 K”

7 Mar 2018, CJones was quoted:

“The young pups are announcing their presence with authority. Exciting to see them gaining confidence. Won’t be long Atlanta.”

7 Mar2018, Ber wrote:

“…lets say all the stars align, other good teams stink, and 84-78 gets you into a 1 game playoff, is it worth retarding someone’s chance to prove themselves?
I was of course like everyone else wanting to send Nick M packing, but you know…you need some vets, especially in this day and age to show a team full of millennials how the game should be played, and when to have some guts, which we now know he does, in spades…”

12 Mar 201, Gil wrote:

“I have opined before that the Braves will make their move in the market next season and strangely, their needs may be less than we think at this point. We know Kakes will be gone as well as one or both catchers.”

14 Mar 2018, Gil wrote:

“So, just who is a lock at this point and who is on the bubble?

Position players who are locks barring injuries: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Kurt Suzuki, Tyler Flowers, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis. Also Johan Camargo (either 3rd base or super utility) Charlie Culberson (utility, Swanson body double)

On the bubble are Preston Tucker, Lane Adams, Danny Santana and new comer Ezequiel Carrera.

Likely to get cut, traded or sent down are Chris Steward, Rio Ruiz, Christian Colon, Dustin Peterson and Schempf.

I did not list Acuna but I just don’t see him making the team until mid April due to financial considerations. Everyone knows he will be in Atlanta sooner than later but money is money and I don’t see the Braves front office throwing away a year of control over two weeks.”

16 Mar 2018, Gil wrote:

“Braves sign Anibel Sanchez to a minor league contract and invites to spring training… Okay.. why not? Not a huge risk and you just never know what tweek will fix a pitcher. That and pretty easy to flip/DFA. Almost like hiring day labor.”

21 Mar 2018, VOR wrote:

“We will open the season with Julio, Folty, McCarthy, Newk and eventually Sanchez/Kazmir/Gohara. But let’s just go ahead and call it Gohara because it’ll be his as soon as he’s healthy.

Then at mid-season, I predict McCarthy is gone and Soroka is promoted. The rotation then looks like Julio, Folty, Newk, Gohara, Soroka.

BUT…Max Fried is close himself, not to mention Kolby Allard. Those are the pitchers that are realistic for 2018. Allard might hold off until 2019, but Fried is close now.”

23 Mar 2018, VOR wrote:

“Maybe this comment is a bit premature, but where will Ronald Acuna fit into this batting order? As a righty, he can fit seemless behind (or in front of) Freddie. But do you want to place him there right away? That’s a pretty heavy pressure spot in the lineup.

Maybe initially he bats behind Markakis at #6. But at some point you have to move him up. And to be honest, I think he plays better at 3 than Freddie. He’s a 5-tooler, and his speed would keep the lineup burning behind Ender and Ozzie.

SO while the above is a fair representation of Opening Day 2017, my lineup in 2018 would start with:
Ozzie, 2B (S)
Ender, CF (L)
Acuna, RF (R)
Freddie, 1B (L)
Austin Riley, 3B (R)

.. with a mystery LF and C slotting into the bottom of the order with Dansby.”

25 Mar 2018, Ber wrote:

“The Braves have signed outfielder Peter Bourjos to a major league deal worth $1MM, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports. 🙄
How exciting….really shrewd move Thoppy. No wonder you won so many division titles in the AL east…
really? A major league deal? really???? well, he hit .223 last year (.241 career BA) with a robust .272 OBP. but Ber, he has speed, he can steal a base or two. No, no really. 16 steals the last 3 seasons, caught 16 times.
so, no power, speed, but can’t steal, can’t hit, can’t walk. Can play some D. Ok….can’t Lane Adams do all of that? Or Santana? makes no sense….”

26 Mar 2018, VOR wrote:

“Here are the certainties:

Rotation: Julio, Folty, McCarthy, Newk

Bullpen: Viz, AJ, JoseRam, Sam Freeman, Peter Moylan, Dan Winkler (2 spots remaining)

Lineup: Ender, Ozzie, Freddie, Kakes, Flow, Tucker, Dansby, Rio

Bench: Zuk, Culberson, Bourjos, Flaherty (1 spot remaining)

I’m guessing Anibal Sanchez will make the team as the #5 starter, but could pitch at AAA until the 5th starter is needed. Rex Brothers seems to be the leader to win the 7th bullpen spot. But who will the long reliever be? Would they go ahead and add Sanchez now as the long reliever, with hopes that Gohara will be ready by late April? No clear answers here yet. Had one of the youngsters – Sims, Wisler, Blair – made a positive impression, he would have seized that long relief role. None did.

And that last bench spot… Lane Adams? Chris Stewart?”

10 April 2018, VOR wrote:

“So as to lineup configuration, I once again have to ask Freddie Freeman to give up his favored 3rd spot and be my cleanup hitter. And I’ve got numbers to back me up.

In 2017, he was clearly the team’s top RBI producer if you extrapolate his numbers out to 162 games. He was just 5 behind team leader Nick Markakis even though he played in only 115 games. He also lead the team in OPS (on base percentage + slugging) by a wide margin ->.989 to .823.

And the stats show that the cleanup hitter comes to bat with runners on base over half the time, more than any other spot in the lineup. That’s where I want Freddie.

So I want my high OBP guys – Ender, Ozzie, Acuna – on base ahead of Freddie, and I want Freddie driving them in. If I can get a guy like Cutch to protect Freddie at #5, or even young Austin Riley when he grows into that role, I’ve really got something going at the top and middle of the order. Follow that with a resurgent Dansby Swanson and a catcher that can at least hold his own and our lineup becomes quite formidable.

There are exciting times to come.”

23 April 2018, VOR wrote:

“This is the “go to” lineup we could see very soon:

Ender, CF (L)
Ozzie, 2B (S)
Freddie, 1B (L)
Bautista, 3B (R)
Kakes, RF (L)
Flowzuki, C (R)
Acuna, LF (R)
Dans, SS (R)”

25 April 2018, Ber wrote:

“Hey it actually maybe be Preston Tucker that either gets traded or released which would be a first the guy leading the team in RBIs but he can’t really play Centerfield can he?”

4 Jun 2018, VOR wrote:

“I am glad we decided to keep “Walk Off Charlie” over Joey Bats…”

26 June 2018, Gil wrote:

“So, the Rays defeat the Nits 1 zip, third straight loss for Schurzer… who would have thunk it? Baseball is weird alright. So, the Nits fall another 1/2 game behind the Braves and the Frillies face the Yankees again tonight prior to the boys from DC coming in to the City of Brotherly Love for a four game set.

The best scenario? Phils lose tonight and then split the series with Washington while the Braves win the next seven in a row… yeah, that’ll do it…”

28 June 2018, VOR wrote:

“Now I’m looking at our rotation and thinking:

#1, Julio Teheran, just came off the DL for shoulder soreness.
#2, Folty, just came off the DL for triceps tightness
#3, Newk, thank God for Newk
#4, Anibal Sanchez, just left a game early with calf cramps; been on the DL already for leg problems
#5, Matt Wisler, cannot even express on a family friendly forum what I want to say about typing his name here”

30 June 2018, Ber wrote:

“I think my views on Anibel have changed….did you all get to catch the early part of the game? He was working on/with Julio T basically every inning. Julio looked terrible in the 1st, walking 2. Fastball was 91-92..and just looked like it was going to be a long night. seemed from the camera on the two of them all the time, Anabel talking to him, showing him how to turn more in his windup, showing where he was finishing up after a pitch….Julio was paying attention….and he did go 6 innings without giving up a run. Not sure why Julio has lost some off his fastball, I am sure he’d like to have 95 MPH every start, but if anyone can show him how to survive without a great fastball, it’s A Sanchez. And no doubt the younger players see Julio , the grizzled vet of 26 listening, they will listen too. so perhaps it would be better to keep him, as long as he pitches well, if he’s helping a bunch of guys not even old enough to drink….”

30 June 2018, Gil wrote:

“After a month long stretch of what could be described as malaise, the Braves pitching staff appears to have found itself and the offense has reawakened.

Fried looked absolutely stellar tonight.

The Braves bats are booming.”

2 July 2018, VOR wrote:

“I think we’ve said it time and time again, Luke Jackson and Matt Wisler are not major league pitchers, Sam Freeman has lost his 2017 mojo, and Pete Moylan is way past his prime. That’s 4 out of the 8 relievers. Half of the bullpen. HALF.

Folks, we cannot make a real concerted push into October with half a major league bullpen.”

2 July 2018, VOR posted from Gabe Burns:

“In St. Louis series:

Starters ERA: 0.00
Bullpen ERA: 9.64″

3 July 2018, Gil wrote:

“Watch the Braves bullpen come in is like Chinese water torture.. Walks, base runners etc. I wonder if Snit buys Malox by the case?”

3 July 2018, VOR wrote:

“Well, our bullpen actually did an amazing job last night. Of course, there was no Matt Wisler, no Pete Moylan, and Luke Jackson did not enter the arena. Sam Freeman did pitch… and of course walked the first couple of batters he faced. But a well turned double play bailed him out.

Credit where credit is due:

Dan Winkler did not have a clean inning, but he also did not panic. And he missed a few bats.

Jesse Biddle has ice water in his veins and some wicked pitches. That 10th inning was something else.

AJ Minter is getting quite comfortable as closer. You can truly see him growing into the role.”

3 July 2018, Gil wrote:

“Yep, at least this team is not a one trick pony. You really don’t know who will be the guy who will deliver the big hit. It is fun trying to guess though.

The key is still the bullpen though.”

31 July 2018, VOR wrote:

“So how impactful was the deal for Adam Duvall, who will now platoon with Ender, playing LF against LH pitchers with RAJ sliding over to CF?

DOB sums it nicely: He’s hit as many homers as Freddie Freeman or Kris Bryant over past three seasons and has 2nd-most Defensive Runs Saved this season among LFs

Of course he strikes out alot too. He is a classic power bat. But he’s just 2 years removed from being an All-Star with a 31 HR season.”

31 July 2018, VOR wrote:

“The O’s Kevin Gaussman would be a decent alternative if the price on Archer is just prohibitive. They are reportedly “closing In” on another deal.”

31 July 2018, VOR wrote:

“Rotation will now be Julio, Folty, Anibal, Newk, and Gausman, whose last start for the O’s was Saturday.”

3 Aug 2018, VOR wrote:

“New dates for possible future consideration for countdowns (courtesy of young Gabe Burns):
*NL Wild Card game will be Tuesday, Oct. 2
*NLDS begins Thursday, Oct. 4.

I believe these dates will be relevant for Braves fans this year. 😀”

3 Aug 2018, Gil wrote:

“I think the team is very focused now, the trades made by Thoppy appear to have allowed the Braves to hit the re-set button. They cannot worry about what the Phillies and the Nats do, they have to only control their own destiny.”

4 Aug 2018, Gil wrote:

“Wasn’t Anibal magnificent last night? The guy is a master.”

6 Aug 2018, VOR posts:

“In a pennant race, a good ‘pen goes a long way.@Braves relievers were insanely good as they earn Bullpen of the Week honors: https://atmlb.com/2vLls1y  #PrevailingMoments”

8 Aug 2018, VOR wrote:

“Sean Newcomb is becoming the pitcher we have been looking for. He is emerging as a real 1 or 2… right along with Folty. With maturity, Newk is gaining control of his fastball and using it effectively. It’s a good lesson in patience and not judging a pitcher too quickly (cough Kolby Allard) as Sean is now panning out to be exactly what the scouting reports predicted.”

8 Aug 2018, Gil wrote:

“Upon further review…. The Braves have assembled a pretty nice ball club haven’t they? Not exactly the 2018 Boston Red Sox but they can hang with anyone. It all comes down to timely hitting and stout pitching.”

9 Aug 2018, Ber wrote:

“How about Charlie Culberson? I have to say, I was way wrong about him…I truly couldn’t figure out why he was picked up”

9 Aug 2018, Gil wrote:

“And what of Luke Jackson? Wow, that was a huge strike out last night. Could it be he is finally putting it all together?”

9 Aug 2018, Gil wrote:

“So, the Braves are 10-8 now since the All-star break, not exceptional but not terrible when you think of how poorly the Braves have played in years past to start the second half. The Braves go home to face the resurgent Brewers and the Nits fly to ChiTown to face the always tough Cubbies. Meanwhile, the Fightns’ move on to San Diego.

Just win Braves, you hold your own destiny in your hands…”

10 Aug 2018, Ber wrote:

“What a game pitched by Gausman! One of the best games pitched by a brave all year….he looked…smoother to me than the first start”

13 Aug 2018, Gil wrote:

“Good morning all. Big day ahead for the Braves. The premier of Touki Toussaint this afternoon against the fish and then in the night cap, Foltynewicz toes the rubber. An opportunity to add to their lead over both the Phils and the Nats.”

13 Aug 2018 Gil wrote:

“What a really nice debut for Toussaint. I am much more impressed with his stuff than Allard. Don’t get me wrong, Allard is a nice kid with a bright future but Toussaint has “stuff”… And perhaps his most impressive play was covering the first base bag to complete the DP in the 6th.

Ronald Acuna had a day…. Just rocking it right now. I think he is finally getting comfortable.”

14 Aug 2018, VOR wrote:

“So while the Braves continue with 2 more against the Minnows, the Phillies open a 2-game series with the mighty Red Sox.

I can’t help but grin just a little.”

20 Aug, 2018, Gil wrote:

“Now it’s on to Pittsburg. Amazingly, the Braves are still in first place, even after getting swept 4 games. So there is that.”

21 Aug, 2018, Gil wrote:

“It is still anyone’s pennant to win in the NL East. No one has run away with it but the Nats are a demoralize bunch. The next three days will be a tell as far as the Frillies and Nits go.

And who expected the Mets and the Marlins to help out the Braves so much?”

23 Aug 2018, VOR wrote:

“And that’s probably the best game I’ve ever seen Julio pitch, and I’ve seen him pitch alot over the years. He used his breaking pitch more last night than ever before. One has to wonder if the Gas Man has been in his ear.”

28 Aug 2018, VOR wrote:

“Our boys in blue wake up to a 3.5 game lead today beholding to our broken brothers on the beltway.

Beautiful.”

29 Aug 2018, VOR wrote:

“The Braves wake up today to a 4.5 game lead.”

2 Sept 2018, Gil wrote:

“Pretty impressive turn around for the Bravos this weekend. Julio continues to amaze me. Acuna continues to amaze everyone….”

5 Sep 2018, VOR wrote:

“Last night as I was watching a part of the game, it struck me that Johan Camargo has actually become a pretty important part of this 2018 team. Not only is he an incredible fielder at 3B, he’s 3rd in AVG, 3rd in OBP, and 4th in SLG. Also, believe it or not, he’s 4th in HR and 3rd in RBI.”

9 Sep 2018, Gil wrote:

“Shame on me for doubting this team… 6 runs in the ninth to cover up Luke Jackson’s stink..”

12 Sep 2018, Gil wrote:

“Given the youth of this club, it may well be the Braves will celebrate with ginger ale rather than champagne…”

23 Sep 2018, VOR posted:

“Braves Magic Number @BravesMagicNum:  0″

178: Are We There Yet?

Gil
Mechanicsville, VA

Wow, it’s Labor Day and the Braves are still relevant. Okay, be honest, raise your hand if you really thought the Braves would be in first place in the NL East on this date when the season began.

Yeah, me neither. Like everyone else, I expected the Nationals to be well on their way to wrapping up their third straight NL East title.

Surprise! Both the upstart and surprising Braves and the young Phillies have come back from baseball irrelevancy to compete for the mantle of Beast of the East.

While the Braves are currently atop the NL East (76-60) with a 4-game lead over the 2nd place Phils, there is still a lot of important baseball left in season. Now we will find out who has the fortitude to fight through the fatigue that comes in a 162 game season.

For a lot of the young players, playing in September is a new experience. Their brethren in the minors will close out their seasons this week. Most will be packing their bags for home while a lucky few will get a nice pay boost while accumulating service time in the Show.

Some additions have already made it into the Braves clubhouse as the rosters expanded:

Lane Adams

Touki Toussaint

Bryse Wilson

 

 

 

 

 

Rene Rivera

Kyle Wright

Preston Tucker

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Braves reacquired Preston Tucker from the Reds, but he won’t be assigned until room is created for him on the 40-man roster.

Micheal Reed was added but was placed on the 60 day DL with a lower back strain. (That was quick!)

So, who else looks to be added soon? Braves relievers José Ramirez and Arodys Vizcaíno are on the 60-day DL and were assigned to Braves affiliate Rome to complete their rehab. Both would be big adds if healthy.

Austin Riley

The name on the lips of most Braves fans is Austin Riley but given the current log jam on the Braves 40-man roster, I doubt he will be added but you just never know with Thoppy.

So hang on Braves fans! Playing meaningful games in September is a reality for the Bravos and, while the Braves appear to be ahead of schedule, you never know what lies ahead. It’s been a great season thus far so why not enjoy the rest of the ride?

#177: Thoughts from the cheap seats…

 

Vox O’Reason

 

You all know me… I’m the most positive person around Stuffville.

Well, I’m positive that the bullpen is a major weakness, and I’m positive it will prove to be what takes us down if it’s not addressed.

I’m not even sure Thoppy can continue to measure until closer to the deadline.

Here’s how I react when each of our relievers come into a game, including Viz who should be back in a few days, and excluding Parsons who was already informed he’s heading back to AAA:

Vizcaino
I’m confident

AJ Minter
I’m confident

DanWinkler
I’m confident

Shane Carle
I’m fairly confident

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P Moylan
I’m praying

Luke Jackson
Sorry he’s being called on
again

S Freeman
I’m praying

Jesse Biddle
I’m confident

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We desperately need 3 things to happen, and to happen soon.

#1, we need Luiz Gohara to get his head back on straight and help us out in middle innings. Who would you have rather seen come into yesterday’s 7th inning – Sam Freeman or Luiz Gohara? ‘Nuff said.

#2, we need to give up on Luke Jackson, whom we know is never going to be any better, and swap him out for Max Fried, who actually has real potential. Unless Fried’s being preserved as a starter for trade purposes, go ahead and move him into a role where he can contribute now. His most likely role in ATL is in the pen anyway. He’s not starting over Newk, Folty, Soroka, Allard, Julio, Gohara, etc. See what I mean? He’s be a heckuva lot better in this pen than Jackson, who has already passed cleanly by all 29 other teams through waivers twice this season. That means not only does nobody else want him, apparently we don’t either. Yet here he is.

#3, we need AA to make a deal for a reliever and show both the team and the fans that management is serious about 2018. The longer he waits, the more he shakes the faith of the faithful. Instead of taking 2 of 3 from each respective league’s cellar dweller, we lost both series. We could be sitting today 5 game up on the 2nd place Phils and 5 1/2 game up on the Nats. Instead we’re allowing them to stay close while we go on a 10 game road trip against 3 of the best teams in baseball.

Want to really make a commitment?  Go to Oakland and deal for both closer Blake Treinen and 3B Jed Lowrie.

Blake Treinen

Jed Lowrie

Lowrie is having a really solid year at the plate and is only signed through the end of this season and would not block the incoming Austin Riley. Treinen would either be our closer or a solid lock down 8th inning guy. We need both. Having Winkler/Minter/Treinen/Viz at the back end of the bullpen shortens the game.

 

Keone Kela

Adrian Beltre

Want to really make a splash, go to TEX and deal for their closer Keone Kela and 3B Adrian Beltre. That would put all of baseball on notice that we’re serious about contending for a title. The flamethrowing Kela is 20/20 in save opportunities, is controllable through 2021, and is on the block because TEX is in a position with him in similar fashion to the way the Braves were with Kimbrel a few years ago. What good does it do to have a top closer when you’re a losing team? And they’d do Beltre a real solid favor by letting him go to a contender rather than languish on a loser. Can you imagine him hitting in the cleanup spot in our order?

There are already rumblings that the Braves are interested in Beltre. Alone he won’t even bring back a top 100 guy. But I’d much rather see them go for the ring and snag Kela too. That’d be a major coup.

 

#176: The Month of May Continues to be Merry.

Gil in
Mechanicsville VA

As we approach mid-May, the Braves continue to hold onto 1st place in the NL East. I’m not sure how others feel but I am pleasantly surprised. Still, there is a long way to go and the traps and pit falls associated with a 162 game season can jump up and bite the Bravos.

The Mets looked as if they were going to be an unstoppable juggernaut the first two weeks of the 2018 season but injuries to key players and a sudden collapse of their vaunted pitching staff has made them appear very ordinary. While there is lots of time for the New York nine to right their ship, they look very beatable.

Same could be said for the mighty Nationals. They stumbled out of the gate but they have come on strong of late, and they trail both the Braves and the Phillies.

As for the Phillies, I thought they would be much improved this season but they are strong all the way across the board. Good pitching and defense and a solid pen, however, they have a losing record against teams in their division. Could the Braves have contributed to that?

The Marlins are where everyone expected but they do have some pretty impressive pieces. I doubt they will have many of those players around by mid-season as they go full on rebuild.

So, as we watch the budding stars of Albies and Acuna learn the ways of the major leagues, we can be pleasantly surprised by the resurgence of Nick Markakis and the continued impressive performance of Freddie Freeman. Now, as soon as Austin Riley makes his appearance, we can really have some fun!

Albies, Acuna, Riley

Freeman & Markakis

 

#175: New Season, New Faces

Gil ‘n Mechanicsville, VA

With every new season, new players are added to the roster. Some to replace departing players, some to improve the line up and some to fill a need. The 2018 Braves have a fair share of new faces dotting the line up card as the 2018 marathon begins. I will keep this fairly short and identify the position players only in this post. By the time I get around to the pitching staff it may be obsolete.

 

Ryan Flaherty

First is Ryan Flaherty, a 31 y/o journeyman who has spent the majority of his major league career as a 2nd baseman in Baltimore of the American League. An alum of Vanderbilt, he is a former 1st round pick in 2008 (41st overall) by the Chicago Cubs. This spring he was in the Phillies’ camp after the Orioles declined to resign him for 2018. He opted out of his contract with the Phillies with about a week to go in spring training when became apparent he would not be part of the Fightin’s 2018 plans.

Ryan, who is Nick Markais’ brother in law, was signed by the Braves as insurance for the infield when Johan Camargo was sidelined by an oblique injury about two weeks prior to the end of spring training. While Flaherty is not a prototypical 3rd baseman, he is solid with the glove and has not embarrassed himself with the lumber. He had a very good spring training with the Phillies and has been a plus so far this season.

Preston Tucker

Next is 27 y/o outfielder Preston Tucker, a refugee from the loaded Astro’s organization. Preston is the older brother of Kyle Tucker, who is heralded as the next great outfielder for that franchise. Tucker played the entire 2018 season with the Astro’s triple A affiliate Fresno of the PCL. Tucker was acquired from the Astro’s for cash considerations in December and, to be truthful, appears to be a placeholder for the Braves super-star-in-waiting, Ronald Acuna, Jr. So far Preston has played a solid defense in left and has been clutch with the bat. It should be interesting as to whether or not he or Lane Adams remains on the major league roster when Acuna arrives on the scene.

A good interview with Tucker by Gabriel Burns is found here.

Chris Stewart

 

The final player I will mention is 36 y/o catcher Chris Stewart, late of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Signed as a depth piece for the organization which has a dearth of major league catching talent, he was added to the major league roster essentially to allow for Kurt Suzuki and Tyler Flowers to be used as a pinch hitter on those days which they did not start behind the plate.

As it turned out it became a stroke of good luck with Tyler Flowers going down to an oblique injury during his first at bat. When Suzuki was hit in the hand in game two, it was necessary for the Braves to have a solid backstop who could step in.

Carlos Perez

 

While x-rays did not reveal a fracture to Suzuki’s right hand, the Braves made a trade for another catcher with major league experience in Carlos Perez, who had been DFA’d by the Angels last Tuesday. The Braves sent infielder Ryan Schimpf to the Angels in exchange for the 27 y/o Venezuelan. Perez batted .265 in spring training but did not really have a spot on the Angel’s 25 man roster with a .195 career batting average. No one should mistaken the trade as anything but an insurance policy for the Braves at the catching position.

 

 

#174: Words of wisdom

Vox O’Reason

$50M sounds like so much money to you and me, but it won’t even pay for 2 All-Stars for 1 year, much less over the long term deals they want. And any owner that “takes their $50M windfall and spends it all in one place” isn’t being fiscally responsible.

As to the Braves, I would love for them to have taken $50M and bought a pitcher and a hitter. Truth is, though, that it wouldn’t have paid for both Yu Darvish and JD Martinez. The cost of a player goes way beyond just straight salary. There’s stipends, food, hotels, travel, and very costly insurance just to name a short few. I cannot imagine the total yearly budget for operating a baseball franchise. It’s staggering to think about. So $50M in the total perspective isn’t as much a windfall as we might imagine.

As we all have hashed over time and time again, the Braves’ horrendous TV contract already puts them behind other teams… hence the genesis of The Battery, a very innovative concept that all 29 other teams are paying close attention to. That will help make up some of the difference, but it doesn’t just begin spitting cash on arrival. It has to be planned, built, occupied and operated. All that costs money and takes time. It’s already paying some dividends, but it’s just in its infancy.

Am I defending the tight-walleted Braves ownership, or ownership in general? Well, here’s the uncomfortable truth. They own the team; they can do with it as they please. We shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking baseball owners – whether it be private or corporate – are in it just to build winning teams. They’re in it to make money. That’s how they are, and that’s how they can afford a baseball franchise to begin with. Obviously building a winning team helps bolster the bottom line, but it isn’t the #1 priority. And it doesn’t come quickly, easily or cheaply.

Overall, baseball owners are learning that the days of George Steinbrenner are long gone. There are so many examples of teams spending themselves into oblivion and still losing. And even “going all in” by overspending and trading away your farm doesn’t guarantee anything. Anyone remember Mark Teixeira? No, the new wave of team executives have earned their stripes by taking the long approach… by building the farm system and reaping slow long range benefits. It’s the Dayton Moore approach and its proven. And it’s not just in KC. Chicago did it; Houston did it; Minnesota is doing it. It works.

So that transitions to other major parts of the slow free agent market equation…

Let’s say we did buy Mike Moustakas on a short term cost-friendly 1-year pillow contract. The signing still would cost us a high draft pick. So even if the budget hit is positive, the impact on the farm system is negative. Team execs are beginning to place a much higher value on those draft picks and aren’t willing to just give them up easily.

Now, tack on the luxury tax and you really have a disincentive. Paying 150% on every $ you spend is bad business, period. It’s why the Dodgers took Matt Kemp’s albatross contract… to spread out their commitment over 2 years instead of 1 and avoid being hit with the penalty. The Braves could afford to absorb the cost in 2018 alone. (And the by-product is that it all comes off the books for 2019.)

All that adds up to a basic philosophy: unless your team is ready to win this year, it isn’t worth the negative effect on the future to buy high $ players. Who bought the big names? The Cubs, the Red Sox, the Angels… teams expecting to contend and win now.

I want the Braves to win this year. I really do. But I want them to win over the next 10 years too. Blowing a big wad in 2018 won’t give our young pitchers the experience they need, and it won’t guarantee us even a division title this year. But it will slow down the final lap of the long rebuild.

The smart executive will allow Nick Markakis to play out his deal this year and take what you get from him in RF. He will keep Ronald Acuna in AAA for April before starting his ML clock. He will allow his young pitchers to learn in the fire and take the hits this year. He’ll watch the team struggle again in 2018.

But in 2019, he’ll have young stud pitchers with real ML experience. He’ll have a budding star in the OF to go along with an established gold-glover. And he’ll have an opening, but he’ll also have means to fill out his young and talented roster with a that one complimentary player that will make the difference.

We somehow let Coppy and Hart sell us on the idea of retool, not rebuild, and “2 parallel paths*. But that was crap. It was a lie and it was false. There is only one way to rebuild, and it takes time. It takes 4 years of losing before you begin to emerge in the 5th. KC did it; Chicago did it; Houston did it; Minnesota is doing it. And the Braves will be doing it next year.

#173: Brett Cumberland

Gil ‘N
Mechanicsville

Another of the Braves promising prospects is 22 year old Brett Cumberland, a switch hitting catching prospect out of California. Cumberland was chosen by the Braves in the June 2016 Armature Draft as number 76 over-all. He was tapped in the “B” competitive compensation round. Cumberland had played for the California Golden Bears of the Pac 12 and was the Pac 12 Player of the Year in 2016 as a sophomore.

After inking a pro contract with a signing bonus of 1.5 million dollars, he was assigned to Atlanta’s Appalachian League affiliate, in Danville Virginia. While appearing in 45 games the rookie league, he had 189 plate appearances and 162 official at bats. he amassed 35 hits including 11 doubles and 3 home runs. He had 14 walks and 49 strike outs. His slash line was .216 batting average/.317 on base percentage/ .340 slugging percentage/ on base plus slugging of .657. He also hit into 4 double plays and hit by pitch 11 times. Not exactly star studded numbers but not unusual for a rookie.

In 2017 he was posted to lower A Rome of the Southern League to begin his season and appeared in 55 games. In 236 plate appearances he had 175 official at bats. He stroked 46 hits, 15 doubles, 1 triple and 10 home runs. He drove in 48 runs and had one stolen base. He had 61 strike outs and 31 walks. He was also hit by pitch 25 times and only hit into 1 double play. In mid season he was promoted to Advance A Florida Fire Frogs in Florida State League. In 56 games he put up 216 plate appearance and 182 at bats. he had 49 hits, 12 doubles, 1 triple and 1 home run. He had 18 walks and 62 strikeouts. His slash line was .269/.384/.363 and an OPS of .747. He hit into 5 DPs. He was also hit by pitch 16 times.

it should be noted that in 112 games played in A ball in 2017 he was used as the designated hitter in 62 games and caught in 50 games as he split time at the position with Tanner Murphy. Cumberland only threw out 17 of 60 would be base stealers for a 22% success rate. He also had 14 passed balls in his two seasons in minor league ball.

This fall, the 5′-11″ 205 pound catcher was placed with the Melbourne Aces of the Australian Baseball Association. Cumberland has appeared as both a catcher and as a right fielder. It is as a outfielder I believe will be his eventual landing spot if he makes it to the show. He is still two to three years away from the Show but as he fine tunes his game, he has the potential to be a major league ball player.

 

#172: Alex Jackson – Catcher

by Gil Elliott

 

 

 

In 2014, the Seattle Mariners in the first round and with the 6th over-all pick in the Amateur Draft chose Alex Jackson. Jackson, a kid who had been a catcher his entire amateur baseball career was immediately assigned to the Mariners rookie affiliate in Arizona and move to the outfield to learn that position. The Mariners, who had been impressed by Jackson’s hitting prowess, wanted to move him to a position where his bat could play every day. Needless to say, the experiment was an abysmal failure as Alex’s hitting suffered from the pressure of trying to learn a new position.

In 2014, at rookie league Arizona, Jackson hit a respectable .280 in 23 games and 82 at bats. In addition, his slash line was .344 OBP, .476 slugging and .820 OPS while racking up 23 hits, 6 were doubles, 2 triples and 2 home runs.

 

In 2015, Jackson only hit .207 in 76 games between class A Clinton Iowa of the Midwest League and short season class A Everett Washington in the Northwest League. In the two minor league stops he hit a total of 56 hits 271 at bats. His slash line was .207BA/.318OBP/.365Slug/.683OPS. In his 56 hits, 17 were doubles, 1 triple and 8 home runs. He had 21 walks and 61 strike outs between the two minor league teams.

Aug 24, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; American catcher Alex Jackson (10) rounds second base during the 2013 Under Armour All-American Baseball game at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Reid Compton-USA TODAY Sports

To say the least, these were not the kind of numbers expected for a first round draft pick who had signed for a tidy $4.2MM dollars. He was traded to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for right handed pitchers Max Povse and Rob Whalen in November of 2016. The Atlanta Braves acquired Jackson plus a player to be named from the Mariners for two pitchers whom the Braves felt were no longer part of their long range plans.

While not the most polished of catching prospect, Jackson never the less was assigned to the Braves’ Advanced A affiliate, the Florida Fire Frogs as a catcher. It was a position where the Braves felt he had the most potential and the Braves had the greatest need. With the Fire Frogs, Alex played in 66 games, amassing 70 hits in 257 at-bats. Of those 70 hits, 17 were doubles and 14 home runs. He also drew 13 walks and struck out 74 times. He had a .272 batting average and an OBP of .333, a .502 slugging percentage and an OPS of .835.

In July of 2017 he was promoted to AA Mississippi where he appeared in 30 games. In 110 at bats he posted a .255 batting average and delivered 28 hits, 4 doubles and 5 home runs. His on base percentage was .317, a .427 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS. As I stated earlier, he is not the most polished defensive catcher and in the minors, his fielding percentage is .979 with 7 passed balls and 16 caught stealing to go with 61 stolen bases against. These are not stellar stats but he is only 21 years old and a work in progress.

This fall, the Braves assigned Jackson to the Peoria Javalinas in the Arizona Fall League to play against some of the best minor league talent in the game. He put up good numbers in the AFL batting .263 in 20 games with 80 at bats. Among his 21 hits were 2 doubles and 5 home runs to go along with 23 strike outs. This translated to a .813 slugging percentage and a OPS of .826. These numbers were pretty much in line with his 2017 minor league stats of a .267 BA.

One of the things I have noticed about Jackson is the consistent numbers he has put up in all of his stops along the way. Those being strikeouts equal to the number of games he has played in and decent OPS numbers. He does draw his walks but his strike out totals are high but not unreasonable for a slugging catcher.

Alex Jackson still has work to do before he can be considered a major league catcher. His defense is a concerned but it is likely that it will be his bat that will get him to the Show. While he may not be considered spectacular prospect as a catcher, he is a very solid player. He is one of many young prospective catchers now working their way through the Braves minor league system. I expect for him to be assigned to AA Mississippi to begin the 2018 season but if his success continues at that level, look for him to be promoted to Triple A Gwinnett by the All-star break.

 

 

 

[Editor’s Note:  my car is a year older than Jackson is. ]

#171: Austin Riley

Gil from Mechanicsville

Another of the Braves stable of wunderkind is 20 year old Austin Riley. Austin is listed as being 6-3 and 220 pounds officially and was drafted 41st overall in the 2015 MLB Amature Draft. He is a product of DeSota Central High School in Southhaven, Mississippi. Austin is another young prospect in the Braves long search for a permanent replacement for Hall of Fame bound Chipper Jones. The road to Atlanta is littered with “can’t miss” prospects who fell short. However, Riley is built like a prototypical third baseman and he has been described as having light tower power.

This fall, Austin was assigned by the Braves organization to play for the Peoria Javalinas of the Arizona Fall League. Against top flight minor league competition he slashed a tidy .300/.364/.657 with a sparkling OPS of 1.021. In 70 at bats, Riley posted 21 hits including 5 doubles, 1 triple and 6 home runs. He struck out 21 times and coaxed 4 walks. While the number strikeouts is a bit disconcerting, he is after all, a power hitter and still is only 20 years old. Coming into the fall league, he reputation was his defense at the hot corner was suspect but he showed good quickness at the hot corner and a strong arm.

After being drafted by the Braves in June of 2015, Riley split time with the Braves’ Gulf Coast League affiliate and the short season rookie team in Danville. He posted a combined .304/.389/.544 and an OPS of .993 in 60 games and 217 at bats. In 66 hits, he slugged 14 double, 1 triple and 12 home runs striking out 65 times. If you are paying attention, you will note he seems to have equaled his hit totals with strike outs.

Austin Riley

In 2016, Riley was promoted to Rome of the A class Sally League. He appeared in 129 games and had 543 plate appearances amassing 134 hits, 39 doubles, 2 triples and 20 home runs. He also struck out 147 times and drew 39 walks, scoring 68 times while driving in 80. His line for the year was .271/.324/.479 and an OPS of .803.

Defensively, in 1045.1 innings played, he had 355 chances recording 92 put outs and 213 assist. He committed 30 errors and posted a .910 fielding percentage. He also had range factor of 2.63. To give a point of reference, the major league average range factor for third baseman(a saber metric stat) is 2.70. Unknown to me are how many of Riley’s errors were fielding miscues verses the number of throwing errors.

In 2017, Austin again split time in two levels of minor league teams. He began the season with Advanced A Florida Fire Frogs and was promoted after 80 games to the AA team in Mississippi. Between the two levels, he hit .275 in 129 games with 542 plate appearances. He scored 71 runs and drove in 74 slugging 19 doubles, 2 triples and 20 homeruns. He also walked 43 times and struckout 124 times. If you compare his numbers for the two seasons he has spent in the minors to date, you will notice his numbers are pretty consistent. His over all fielding appeared to improve with a .932 fielding percentage in 1093.1 innings. He handled 326 chances registering 91 put outs and 215 assist while committing 20 errors at the hot corner. His range factor was 2.52 for the year.

Excerpts from a March 2017 article by Mark Bowman:

“I looked at his first-half numbers and thought, ‘He’s better than that,'” Jones said of Riley, ranked as the No. 13 prospect in Atlanta’s farm system by MLBPipeline.com.  “Then you saw the second-half numbers and it was obvious something clicked. So when I saw him this year, I asked, ‘What was the deal?’ He said, ‘Breaking balls for strikes and 2-0 changeups.’ I looked at him and said, ‘Welcome to the three-hole, buddy. That’s the way it is. When they come to the ballpark, what they’re saying is we can’t let Austin Riley beat us.'”

Though he is not a part of this year’s big league camp, Riley made his second start of the Grapefruit League season during Thursday’s 8-7 loss to Yankees. He recorded a pair of hits against the Marlins on Saturday, but he has gone hitless in the four at-bats that have followed.

As Jones has spent time with Riley over the past week, the two have traded offseason hunting tales and discussed those mental aspects that could help the 19-year-old Riley develop a better plate approach as he prepares to begin the upcoming season at the Class A Advanced level.

“Austin Riley could be Freddie Freeman’s protection in the lineup within the next two to three years,” Jones said. “That’s what we’re shooting for. So, I’m really trying to talk the mental side of hitting as opposed to the fundamentals because the fundamentals are there.”

Just two years removed from high school, Riley garnered the attention of Bobby Cox during the 2015 Instructional League and then ended up with an .803 OPS despite experiencing a disappointing first half of his first full pro season last year. He also committed 30 errors, but as he moves closer to ending his teenage years, he has started to grow into his big frame and gain the mobility he’ll need to serve as an adequate defender at third base.

“Chipper and I have talked about last year’s first half and how I could have done things better,” Riley said. “It was all about how I could have simplified things. He gave me some feedback and it all made sense about why the first half went bad and the second half went good. During the first half, I was looking offspeed. In the second half, I was hunting the fastball and it went a lot better.”

At age 20, Austin appears to be right on schedule to make his debut in Atlanta by the end of 2019 or 2020. Short term, the organization will want to see how he fares against stiffer competition at Triple A Gwinnett. I am unsure if Riley will begin the 2018 season at double a Mississippi or triple a Gwinnett. A lot will depend on what organizational moves are made in the off season by the new regime of Alex Anthopoulos. Currently, the Braves have three possible choices to play the position in Adonis Garcia, Rio Ruiz and Johan Carmargo. The word is the Braves want an upgrade to play third base and will look outside the organization to bridge until Riley is ready to make his appearance in Atlanta.

#170: A Report On Two Braves Prospects

November 19, 2017

Gil ‘N
Mechanicsville

 

 

With the conclusion of the 2017 edition of the Arizona Fall League last Saturday, the Braves “Answer to Everything”, Ronald Acuna capped off what has been a pretty eventful year for a 19 year old phenom.

Ronald Acuna

Beginning with a stint in the Australian Baseball League with the Melbourne Aces, the young Venezuelan hit .375/.446/.556 with an OPS of 1.001 in 20 games and was named to the Australian All Star team. After returning home to Venezuela for the league’s Christmas break, he encountered visa problems and was unable to return to Melbourne for the conclusion of that season.

Undeterred, he rejoined the Braves for spring training and was assigned to the Florida Fire Frogs in the Advanced A Florida State League. He played in 28 games for the Fire Frogs slashing .287/.336/.478 and an OPS of .814. He was promoted to AA Mississippi for 56 games and improved with .326/.374/.520 stat line and an OPS of .895. Upon his promotion to Triple A Gwinnett where he continued to improve on his average with a line of .344/.393/.548 and OPS of .940. in 54 games.

Along the way, he has garnered both All Star honors as well as MVP awards while playing with teammates older than himself. To be fair, he is not a one trick pony but a true five tool player playing all three outfield positions with a plus throwing arm. He has plus speed and has shown the ability to steal bases and hit for power. While lacking polish, which only comes for experience, it is anticipated he will start the season in the Atlanta outfield in 2018. The only question is which of the Braves current outfielders will be moved.

Max Fried

While garnering most of the ink, Acuna was not the only Braves prospect to shine in the AFL this fall. Soon to be 24 years old Max Fried also showed why the Braves are so giddy to have this young man in their fold.

Fried, who came to the Braves as part of the package acquired from the Padres for outfielder Justin Upton, Fried was a first round draft pick (over all #7) by the Padres in 2012. Max was sidelined for Tommy John surgery when the Braves acquired him in 2014 but their foresight may well have been spot on. Fried made his return from Tommy John surgery in 2016 with A class Rome. His record with the Rome Braves was 8/7 with an ERA of .393. In 21 games and 103 innings pitched he had 112 strikeouts and 47 walks and a whip of 1.301.

In 2017, he began his season with AA Mississippi appearing in 19 games and 86.2 innings. His stat line with Mississippi was fairly unimpressive with a record of 2-11 and an ERA of 5.92 with 85 Ks and 43 walks and a whip of 1.512.

Fried’s march toward Atlanta came with a promotion to AAA Gwinnett where he appeared in two games for a total of 6 innings. He registered 6 strikeouts with 2 walks and a whip of 0.500. This might be proof positive where wins and losses are not relative to a prospect’s potential.

Max Fried’s promotion to Atlanta on August 5th was somewhat unexpected but when a team is in full bore rebuild, opportunities are abound. Fried appeared in 9 games in the show, 4 as a starter and 5 in relief. He had a 1-1 won loss record and amassed 22 Ks and 12 BB with an ERA of 3.81 and a whip of 1.615. Perhaps more impressive was the poise and mound presence of the 23 year old rookie lefty. He did not give any indication of being over matched and showed glimpses of why he was considered the Padres #1 pitching prospect after he was drafted.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Braves assigned Fried to the Peoria Javalinas of Arizona Fall League following the end of the MLB season. Perhaps the Braves saw it as an opportunity to further evaluate the development of their prized lefty in a controlled environment where Braves minor league manager Luiz Salazar was slated to manage the Javalinas. He did not disappoint, appearing in 6 games and accumulating a total of 26 innings and posting a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.73 with 32 strikeouts, 8 walks. His only snafu was in his next to last appearance against the Glendale Devil Dogs when he gave up 5 runs, 4 earned in 4 innings pitched. Fried has definitely made his case to be included in Atlanta’s plans for their starting staff in 2018.

All totaled Max Fried pitched 144.2 innings in 2017, a good number for a player only 2 years removed from Tommy John. Fried perhaps will be the top prized returned from the Padres accompanied by Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson and Mallex Smith in exchange for Justin Upton.

#169: Some Advice to the Braves from a Fan…

Vox O’Reason Oct. 12, 2017

So how do the suits in Lake Buena Vista begin to wash away the ugliness that currently stains our formerly “gold standard” franchise?

I have a couple of thoughts on that. (Big surprise, right?) And I say this with the disclaimer that the investigation is still ongoing and that there could be more negativity coming.

So suits, listen up!

Terry McGuirk, this first part is addressed to you. You obviously have to hire some stable leadership and get this boat back upright again. We’re listing thanks to the current hierarchy, regardless of who knew what and who did what. Those at the top failed. I include all leadership in “baseball operations”. Anyone at GM level or higher has failed. Period. The venerable John Schuerholz can stay. After all, he’s really nothing more than a figurehead in the organization now, and hasn’t been for 3 years. He’s a HOF’er that makes for great PR on the speaking circuit. But his influence over the day-to-day operations of the Braves is long gone. He’s kind of like the Queen of England. Great history; no power.

When the house becomes unstable, you don’t go in and try replacing the framework a 2×4 at a time. You raze the structure and start from the foundation. That’s what we need to do here – clean house and start fresh.

Next, have to make sure you don’t lose the fan base that came out to see the shiny new ballpark this year. STP won’t be nearly as much a novelty in 2018, and this current blight will surely cement the cynicism among the fringe fans. In order to keep the fence sitters interested, you have to create some positive news and positive energy. The best way to do that is by showing them you are committed to winning NOW, and that you aren’t going to use this setback as an excuse to push the target further down the timeline.

They say that money can’t buy happiness, and that’s true. But it can buy you out of some bad press if you spend it correctly. You want some of the bad news to go away? Break out the wallet and go after a couple of key pieces in FA and prove to the fans that you want to step forward in 2018. How badly do you want to put this darkness behind us, and how quickly? Buy some big positive headlines. It’s not that hard… just expensive.

Yes, I know that you can’t buy World Series winner. Then again, CC Sabathia and Aroldys Chapman did play a key role in the Yankees beating the superior Indians in the ALDS. (And I kind of remember a FA laden Marlins team winning the whole shebang not just once, but twice. But I don’t advocate that method – the stock and purge method.) The Yankees example shows us that the best way for a young team to shine is to have some key veterans put them in that position. And there are absolutely a couple of positions on the Braves that glaringly cry out for a veteran to step in.

Todd Frazier

On the top of my list is 3B and starting pitcher. Is it prudent to roll out the armored car and land a guy like Mike Moustakas? Uh… probably not, especially since you have Austin Riley projected to be about 2 years away. Again, I point to the Yankees, who have gotten key contributions from 3B Todd Frazier down the stretch and into the playoffs. His powerful bat isn’t setting any records in post-season, but his steadiness and vocal leadership is proving to be the rudder that’s keeping the Yankees ship on course. His 27 HR’s over the course of the regular season didn’t hurt anything either. That would have been the 2nd highest total on the Braves this season, just 1 behind Freddie Freeman and way far ahead of the twin Matts’ 19 each. Want a steadier power bat behind Freddie in 2018? Todd Frazier is the guy. Want a guy that you can project into the lineup every day, unlike Matt Kemp? Todd Frazier is the guy. He’ll be just 32 and he played in 147 games in 2017. You can probably sign him for 2 years plus an option, so he fits the timeline nicely.

Jake Arrieta

Now you need a starter, and I mean a real one. Yes, I’m talking about buying one now. This whole Coppoloser mess gives us an excuse now to buy one, and I think we should take advantage of it. I’m not talking about Bartolo Colon or RA Dickey. I’m talking about Jake Arrieta. I’m talking about Yu Darvish. I’m talking about Alex Cobb. I’m sure there will be a couple of teams escalate the bidding on these guys, but if you get in on the right one – Cobb perhaps – you can still land your desired ace and stabilize a quite unstable rotation. And in doing so, you effectively strengthen your bullpen as guys like Max Fried and Lucas Sims can be counted on in a multi-inning role, much like the Yankees have done this year with Chad Green and Aroldys Chapman. Those guys are weapons.

Alex Cobb

Estimating arb salaries and pre-arb raises, the Braves have somewhere in the neighborhood of $90M committed for 2018 to the current roster. A non-tender here, or a buyout there and that total changes, but it still works as a reasonable baseline from which to work. The 2017 total payroll was somewhere in the neighborhood of $120M. The league average Opening Day payroll in 2017 was exactly $152,327,084. You’ve been telling us that The Battery is bringing in more more revenue that is to be turned around into the team. So use it. Increase the payroll to league average. Give your new GM some walking around money to improve the product on the field. Give him $60M or so to make real progress with the roster. But even if you don’t want to go that high in 2018, an increase of $40M would still spend nicely. Sign Alex Cobb for 5yrs/$125M or maybe 7yrs/$175M($25M yearly), Todd Frazier for 2 yrs/$25M ($12.5 yearly) and you’re in the ballpark, pun fully intended.

Hey, a guy can dream… can’t he?

#168: The Worst May Be Behind us

Gil
Mechanicsville, VA

August 7, 2017

The gauntlet faced by the Braves in July turned out to be about as expected although the culprit was an unlikely one. No surprise the Cubs swept the Braves at STP, well, maybe a little surprise but the Braves had just reached the mythical .500 mark and seemed poised to make a run. Then pifft… Swept 3 games by the resurgent Cubbies and off to the left coast, a place where the hopes and dreams of Braves teams of the recent past have gone to wilt and die. Surprise again, the Braves took the first two games and looked like a third win in four games was possible but alas, the Dodgers remembered who they were and beat back the Bravos’ charge. The Braves lost 2 of three to the 2nd place Diamondbacks but it was on to Philadelphia and the woeful Phillies. Alas a trip which had promise was smashed by a Phillies four game sweep. Now the Braves found themselves in a pretty deep hole, any real hope of making the playoffs were pretty much done in at that point.

The Braves have since returned home to face the Dodgers who inexplicably seem only to have problems beating the Braves. Yes, the Braves only one on game out of three in the recent home stand against the best team in the National League this season but they had a chance to take the season series. The Braves just finished a week-end series with the Fish taking two of three before faltering Sunday 4-1. The good news is, the Braves are playing .500 ball this month and with the trade deadline behind them, appear more focused on what is ahead of them instead of behind them.

Connor Kok-Wy Joe

Jamie Garcia was traded to the Indians for a young minor league pitcher and Sean Rodriguez was traded to the Pirates for a former first round pick Connor Joe who is playing A ball. It was a good move for the Braves who have cleared about $12 million from their payroll with the trades of Garcia and S-Rod. who by the way hit the game winning homerun for the Buccos in the 12th inning his first game back with his old team. Well, Godspeed to him.

Lucas Sims

Meanwhile, the Braves sent struggling Dansby Swanson down to Triple A Gwinnett to find himself again. He had been struggling mightily at the plate and it was carrying over to the shortstop position. The Braves called up young right hander Lucas Sims and mighty-mite Ozzie Albies to play second base. While Sims is 0-2, he has shown promise and does not appear to be over matched. Albies is not exactly hitting the cover off the ball but he looks like he belongs and it is only a matter of time before he breaks out.

Brandon Phillips

In a related move, Brandon Phillips has been moved to third base and frankly, he looks like Brooks Robinson over there. Making diving plays and displaying a much stronger arm than I knew he possessed.

In addition, Matt Adams has been slotted to play left field at least until Matt Kemp returns. Kemp is currently out with a bad hamstring and I would not be surprised to see him out until late August. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman has moved back to first base where he belongs. He did what he could to try and make the team better and did not embarrass himself at the hot corner but his best position is at first and it makes the overall defense better.

Max Fried

So, what to expect? Look for more youngsters to be given a chance to show what they can do as players are traded and snuffled around, especially the bullpen. A somewhat surprising move was made Saturday when the Braves promoted young lefty Max Fried from Double A Mississippi and placed him in the pen. He has yet to make an appearance but it will happen soon. Don’t expect The-Answer-to-Everything, Ronald Acuna to play for the Big Braves this season however, the Braves are playing the long game with him and while he almost certainly will make the show in 2018, the Braves will try to protect many of their promising young players from the Rule 5 draft and don’t want to add Acuna to their 40 man roster before they have to.

 

 

#167: Trust The Gut

 

Vox O’Reason

 

As of today, here are the moves my gut says will happen over the next 18 days, in the order of how certain I feel they’ll happen…

 

 

Ozzie Albans

Brandon Phillips

 

Brandon Phillips will be traded and Ozzie will be promoted. This one is almost a lock. Ozzie Albies is ready and Brandon’s contract is very friendly. This one is a no-brainer.

 

 

 

 

Matt Adams

 

Matt Adams will be traded. First, his breakout early season here put him on the radar, but he has come back to earth a bit recently. The time is right now. He’s controllable for a couple of years and has a team friendly contract, making him easier to move.

Johan Carmarga

 

 

 

Johan Camargo has emerged as a real answer at 3B, where our franchise cornerstone 1B is currently residing like a square peg in a round hole. Adams will be traded and Freddie Freeman will rightfully return to 1B while Johan assumes the primary duties at 3B. All will be right with the world. Sean Rodriguez will then join the team as the super-sub he was intended to be and play all over the field.

 

Jaime Garcia

Jaime Garcia will be traded. He won’t bring back what we hoped he might a month ago, but we’ll get something, and we’ll like it.

 

Hard to say what the corresponding pitching move might be.

Kris Medlin

 

Not sure Kris Medlen is ready, but he seems a possibility. Lucas Sims is also a possibility. Of course, Coppy trading for his elusive “ace” is also a possibility, although a remote one. Regardless, Garcia will be moved since he was only intended as a half season bridge anyway.

 

Those moves I feel fairly strongly about. Here are some I think could happen, but I’m not as certain…

 

 

Jason Motte

Jim Johnson

Jim Johnson could be traded. His value is not very high at the moment, but he happens to be a bullpen arm at a time when bullpen arms are in high demand. If Arodys Vizcaino was healthy, I’d see him as a stronger trade candidate, but since he’s not, JimmyJohn is the guy. Jason Motte is also a possibility here, although a lesser one.

 

 

 

Matt Kemp

 

Nick Markakis could be traded. Up until very recently I felt the team would keep him through at least the middle of next season. But the fact that Ronald Acuna just got bumped to AAA tells me that the Johns feel The Answer To Everything could contribute very soon. I think that truncates Nick’s timeline. I do not think Matt Kemp will be traded. He just fits here for the time being, both on the field and in the clubhouse.

 

Anthony Recker

 

 

One of Kurt Suzuki or Tyler Flowers could be moved. I don’t feel really strongly about this one, but the demand for catching could make it happen if the right offer came across Coppy’s desk. It could also be hastened if Coppy receives a decent catching prospect in any of the above mentioned deals. The Flowers/Suzuki tandem has been very good, but Anthony Recker proved last year he can be a capable backup if called upon.

 

That’s it for me. That’s all my gut tells me. Then again, I could just be hungry.

 

#165: So, It Begins Again…

by Gil ‘N Mechanicsville

With 1/3 of the 2017 season now solidly in the rear-view mirror, it is probably an appropriate time to look at the Braves season, where it is, where its been and where it is likely to end up. For the first two months, a supposed strength of the Brave failed to materialize, that being pitching.  I know, no one thought a staff made up of a pair of AARP prospects and a rookie was going the lead the league in ERA but neither did anyone realistically think they would be this bad.

Richard Allen Dickey   age 42

To be fair, R.A. Dicky is about what was expected, some good games, some bad games and some that were rained out.  Bartolo Colon and Julio Teheran however have been horrible. Unless you have a team that can routinely put a couple of touchdowns on the board, there is little hope for a W to be put up, they just have not pitched anywhere near expectations.

Bartolo Colon  age 44

Bartolo may have an excuse that he simply is feeling his age; Julio, for whatever reason, has just not had it. He has developed a habit of giving up gopher balls at an alarming rate. It is as if he has caught what ever contagion afflicting the since-demoted Arron Blair and Matt Wisler and served up baseballs like they were on a Tee. Opposing hitters have fattened up their batting averages to an alarming degree when facing Braves’ pitchers.

Jaime Garcia age 30

We’ve gotten some decent pitching from Jaime Garcia, a new and unexpected addition to the lineup.  With a new addition to the DL, some of the new Minor League pitchers will be making their appearances in the Big Show.

The first will be Sean Newcomb who was acquired from the Angels as part of the deal which sent Andrelton Simmons to the left coast. Sean is a big left-hander who, like most young fire-balling hurlers, has had his troubles maintaining consistency with the strike zone. Perhaps he will get lucky and have an ump with a wide zone behind the dish when he is pitching.

         Kris Medlin                 age 31

If he can stay healthy, old favorite Kris Medlen looks to be on a path which should return him to the big leagues by July. Kris continues to build arm and shoulder strength after two Tommy John surgeries and a shoulder repair. He has altered his mechanics so as to lessen the stress on his shoulder. The rest of the young phenoms toiling away in high A and double A will likely not show up in an Atlanta uniform until the 2018 and 2019 seasons and beyond.

Freddie Freeman
age 27

Matt Adams
age 28

As far as offense, the injury to Freddie Freeman’s wrist was an awful set back to the hopes and dreams of the 2017 Braves. While the Braves front office pulled off quite a coup in dealing for Matt Adams, he is still not Freddie Freeman. Upon Freeman’s return in August, the Braves will determine how best to use Adams’ considerable talent.

Dansby Swanson
age 23

Perhaps one of the biggest disappointments could be the shaky play of rookie shortstop Dansby Swanson. Oh well, he will get past it. He perhaps is simply the victim of too high expectations after a fast start last September. It is a lot of pressure to put on a rookie to be the face of the franchise, just ask Jeff Francoeur. The current offense has shown glimpses of solid play and impressive offense but for now, we best just watch as this team goes thru its growing pains.

#164: Fodder for Food.. or maybe just fodder…

 

by Vox O’Reason

 

 

This team is really, really hard to figure out. I still believe they are a team capable of a .500 season except they aren’t playing like it consistently… and I think that’s the key. So why aren’t they?

This is my amateur assessment after the Braves fell to 11-18, almost 1/4 way into the season:

One, I never make any wholesale judgments on any team until Memorial Day… never. Just too many weather-related outcomes and uneven schedules this early in the year. Heck, it seems as if the Braves have played half their games vs. the Mets. That said, you can make some targeted observations.

Two, the Braves veteran starters, brought in for the sole purpose of providing innings and stability, have provided neither innings nor stability. The bullpen has already been overused and we’re only in the first week of May. Is it because we’ve played multiple series against both NYM and WAS, the top 2 HR hitting teams in the league? Or maybe they are the top 2 HR hitting teams because they’ve played multiple series against the Braves..? Doesn’t matter. The bottom line is that the starting pitching has been too inconsistent, and that includes Julio and Folty. Something has to give, and soon. No offense perform consistently when they are constantly trying to dig out of a hole every stinking night. So how do you get the starters on track? I suppose if I knew that, I’d be employed by a MLB team somewhere.

Three, the bullpen, which can have its bad moments, actually has turned in some pretty good outings. Heck, yesterday they gave us 7 innings of 1 hit ball until the fateful 14th. But when you have to trot a guy out there 3 nights in a row, you have

Collmenter

to expect trouble. Also, if you take away just Wisler’s stats alone, the overall numbers improve dramatically. JimmyJohn, Viz, JoRam have all been dominant at times. Sam Freeman thus far has been effective. But when you expose Motte, Kroll and EOF too often, you’re gonna get burned. And you never know if you’re gonna get the good Collmenter or the bad Collmenter. Ever. The inconsistency of our starters has overexposed the pen. Period. Improve the rotation and you automatically improve the bullpen. That part is simple.

Four, as I mentioned earlier, if you stop giving up an early lead every game, the offense can work more effectively. When I look at the lineup, it’s absolutely a lineup capable of pushing a team to a .500 record or better. Thanks to Adonis’ late revival, the top of the lineup is actually pretty good. Our catching tandem even leads the league in OBP at the position. No comments are needed for Dansby. Our eyes all work perfectly. I’ll only add my agreement with Gil that the kid is getting no help from the umps. That called strike 3 he took in the 11th inning yesterday was shoulder high. That’s just salt in the gaping wound. Heck, it made me feel uncomfortable and I’m not feeling his pressure. Overall, these guys are capable. They’re just being betrayed by the pitching.

Five, the bench is still not constructed well. Lane Adams has been a good addition, and Jace has been better than expected. Whichever of our catching tandem is not starting has respectively held his own as a PH. But here’s where it drops off the cliff. We’re already

Bonifacio

running a short bench, and we’ve got Emilio Bonifacio still taking up a spot. Why? He’s not contributing anything. Might as well add a 9th reliever. (If I’m in charge, he’s released immediately and Johan Camargo is added.) The absence of a good bench is exemplified by our 1-3 record in extra innings? Heck, we were forced to PH Julio in yesterday’s tilt. What greater example needs be shown? If you’re gonna run a short bench, you better make darn sure the 4 guys you have are of ML quality. I only count 3 on our bench. That’s a huge problem. We had the potential winning run on 3B in the 9th, 10th, and 11th innings yesterday, but nobody could drive them in. Good teams have a guy that can come off the bench and get it done at least once out of 3 times. We don’t.

Six, the manager is still the same guy that was a breath of fresh air in 2016. I don’t think he is a factor here. You could have Sparky Anderson in the dugout with this team and they still would have us all pulling our collective hair out. It’s simply not possible to put a puzzle together when you don’t have all the pieces.

Finally, you add all that up and you get 11-18. Want to get back to .500? Find more quality starts from the rotation and find a real bench replacement for Boni. They might not contend for a WC, but they sure as heck won’t be as frustrating as this current group.

 

 

#163: Warm Weather & The Braves Heat Up

Gil
Mechanicsville, VA

 

After a pretty ragged start to the season which saw the Braves boot the ball around like they were auditioning for a spot with the Atlanta United FC. Needless to say, no one secured a spot on the football club for fear of a rash of own goals occurring. While the Braves were in most of their early games, unforced errors led to a 1-6 record.

 

Along with a split of a two game set in Miami, the Braves returned to the Atlanta suburbs and their new home of Sun Trust Park. Warm weather and timely hitting as well as fundamentally sound defense the Los Bravos have chopped their way to a modest 5 game win streak. Perhaps most encouragingly it has been done in the absence of Matt Kemp while he rested a cranky hamstring.

The braves still face a pretty tough road as they continue to seek answers at several key positions. Adonis Garcia continues to man the third base position and it is likely he will be one of the first to be jettisoned when a suitable alternative is procured. Perhaps his best role would be as a right handed pinch hitter off the bench but after having future hall of fame player Chipper Jones play there, the drop off is noticeable. Even Martin Prado was solid as a super sub manning the position.

 

The Braves bullpen has found the sweet spot too with Rameirez, Vizcaino and Johnson closing games but these guys cannot pitch every night. It would be nice to see Braves starters going deep into games instead of coming out after 5 or 6 innings.

 

Ramirez, Viscaino, Johnson

Ian Krol still seems to have some problems being consistent in the strike zone and causes me to have some angst when his number is called to come in from the bull pen.What we don’t want to see is Snit fall in love with the same three guys every night to the point they lose their effectiveness or their arms fall off by August.

So, as the gNats blow into town, the first real test of the young season might well be upon us. Swatting the gNats could go a long way in showing this team and baseball they are pretty far along on the road to respectability.

162: New Season, New Faces

by Gil ‘N Mechanicsville

One of the great things about spring training is all the new faces we see and read about as management attempts to put together a product which will be able to win ball games and possibly be the best of the thirty major league teams.

Sure, we know about the regulars, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte.

It is not as if we don’t want to know about the stars, we do want to know they are healthy and are in great shape as well as if their bat is slowing down or have lost a step. It is reassuring to know all is well with the core of the team. After all, we have seen the rug pulled out from under the team on several occasions in the interest of getting better.

It is the new guys that create the most interest for me. Funny how there always seems to be a name or two we have hardly ever heard of who suddenly arrives on the scene to create a buzz.

Acuna – Albies – Newcomb

We were all exposed to the exploits Ronald Acuna this winter. The suddenly not so secret ‘secret weapon’ signed as an international free agent. We have followed with interest several of the prospects acquired thru trades as well as in free agent drafts, Names like Mataio and Albies and Newcomb who some folks believe should already be logging major league time. For some reason, they have a difficult time grasping the fact that few prospects ever reach the major leagues. Even fewer live up to the hype promoted by various front office types who try to gin up the interest in their respective clubs.

Dansby Swanson

This season we are looking forward to watching possible rookie of the year Dansby Swanson. To date, he has not disappointed. Maybe not the best at any one skill but a heck of a five tool guy who is really good at just about everything he does.

The addition of Brandon Phillips to man the second base position was a real positive move on John Cappelletti’s part. BP may not be the player he once was but he is no slouch and is an improvement over Jace Peterson as the Braves await the arrival of Ozzie Albies on the scene. Not to disrespect Jace but he will be much more valuable to the team as a super sub than he is as a regular. He has delivered on more than one occasion but he has also had long stretches of failure to make consistent contact.

This season, unlike the last two years, the lineup is pretty well set. Three of the four infield

Ruiz

positions will be manned by All-Star calibre players. Third base has 32 year old Adonis Garcia penciled in to start but several names have popped up as

Johan

possible challengers to man the hot corner. Rio Ruiz has long been touted as a candidate but of late Johan Carmargo’s name has been mentioned. The unexpected loss of Sean Rodriguez following an off season traffic accident did yield Brandon Phillips for at least part of the year and has altered the expected plans to platoon Jace Peterson and Adonis.

 

Even so, it is still very early and there is no telling who might suddenly appear on the scene either via trade or promotion. I just would not assume or take for granted anything if I were listed on the Braves 2017 roster.

161:Countdown to Spring

by Gil Elliott

In just about a month, baseball’s spring training begins. More than the return of the swallows to Capistrano or the first Robin appearing at your feeders, it is the true harbinger of the return of warm weather and the renewal of life in North America. No longer will we have to rely on reports from the far flung reaches of the world to stay abreast of the Braves hopefuls nor need translations from Spanish to English the progress of players in various winter leagues.

We will again be able to watch some meaningful baseball with the World Baseball Classic scheduled to make its return this year. We will also hold our collective breaths as we hope and pray none of our players are injured in what is essentially a glorified exhibition series. The WBC is a step above spring training games where there will not be anyone getting in their cardio by running the outfield during the game.

So, we anxiously await the arrival of pitchers and catchers and shortly thereafter the rest of the more than 200 players who will participate in the Braves organization when they return to Lake Buena Vista, Florida. Most of the this season’s major league roster is already set but there are always question marks. The Braves’ outfield is set other than the fourth outfielder as well as most of the infield but last minute trades or heaven forbid, injuries.

Second and third base still appear the slots most likely to be the ones targeted for upgrades. The anticipated arrival of yet another Curacao product, Ozzie Albies, is eagerly awaited by the denizens of Braves’ Country who have followed the young phenom for years. The signing of three veteran pitchers to anchor the starting staff signals that the Braves want their bevy of young pitching prospects to develop in a less stressful environment.

So, let the games begin. I will concede the floor to football as the NFL winds down and March Madness and the NCAA basketball tourney take center stage. They only mean we are that much closer to our true passion and meaningful baseball returns.

However, we do reserve the right to interrupt the other lesser sports should Coppy & Co make additional moves!

#160: Comers and Goers

Gil ‘N Mechanicsville
December 8, 2016

The 2016 Winter meetings have come to a close and the big trades appear to be Chris Sale to the Red Sox and Adam Eaton to the Nationals. Chapman signing with the Yankees and Andrew McCutchen staying in Pittsburg, at least for now. Other moves have taken place too but I will talk about those later, the main thrust of our interest is still the Braves. So, let’s focus on them.

Bartolo Colon

The Braves had previously signed two free agent pitchers to one year deals. R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon. Both are bonafide members of the Geritol set and with the addition of Jamie Garcia, the Bravos have exponentially increase the age and experience in their starting rotation. Dickey, late of the Toronto Blue Jays signed a one year contract with a one year option for 2018. The knuckleballer should still be able to supply innings and the hope is he won’t wear out Tyler Flowers behind the plate. I am reminded of the line attributed to our old favorite Bob Uecker. When he was asked about how he caught Phil Niekro’s knuckleball he replied, “It’s simple, I just wait for it to stop rolling and pick it up.”

Robert Allen Dickey

Dickey is 41 years old but it is not like he has to rely upon a 96 mph fastball to get guys out. His bread and butter has always been his ability to make a baseball do things a baseball is not want to do. Now, a knuckleball is not one which translate well to TV in it’s movement. It is however one where it is anyone’s guess where it will be when it gets to the plate. It is not as if a knuckleball is impossible to hit, it is just tough to hit well. As for a batter being able to time the pitch, he still has a decent fastball to keep opposing hitters honest. Don’t be surprise if a pitcher like Josh Collmenter doesn’t pick Dickey’s brain a tries to learn the pitch. It should be interesting when Dickey meets with Braves legend Phil Niekro this spring.

The second off season signing of note is the ageless Bartolo Colon. Another graybeard, Colon, who has outlasted Turner Field in longevity, can still get batters out with a variety of pitches. His “fastball” tops out around 88 mph but it is everything but straight. Movement and location, the two holy grails of the craft have been mastered by a guy who for all appearances is having more fun than any reasonable person should be expected to have. The impression he gives is a guy who is truly comfortable in his ample skin. For sure, he is entertaining and he has a wealth of experience and knowledge he can pass along to the next generation of pitchers in the Braves stable.

Jamie Garcia

The final piece it the Braves’ new look rotation is Jamie Garcia. The lefty is another veteran. He was acquired from the St Louis Cardinals for rookies Chris Ellis, who I profiled in my previous lead. Also included in the trade package was prospect Luke Dykstra and right handed pitcher John Gant. Gant was acquired from the Mets, along with Rod Whalen for Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson. While Gant had some value, the Braves felt his ceiling was well below much of the talent currently in the pipeline.

Garcia had a bit of a down year in 2016 with the Red Birds but he did pitch over 171 innings last season. John Coppoletta was clearly looking for pitchers who could routinely pitch into the 7th inning as opposed to the 4 and 5 inning efforts put forth by several of the Braves young arms last season. The Braves revolving door should not have to swing quite so frequently in 2017. While fans should not expect the trio of new starters to log many 1 hit shutouts in 2017, they should be expected to deliver many solid quality starts. Perhaps with an improved offense, the Braves pitchers can focus on delivering innings and not worry about who is warming up in the pen and trying to be too fine in their pitches.

For sure, many of the young prospects will have a wide choice of peers from whom to choose as a mentor.

 

#159: Arizona Farm League Prospects: Update Part II

Gil
Mechanicsville, VA

My last update profiled three of the six Braves prospects playing in the Arizona Fall League. This edition will provide some insight to those omitted last week.

Chris Ellis

First is right handed pitcher Chris Ellis. Chris is a 24 year old, 6’5″, 205 lbs, who was drafted in the third round (88th overall) by the LAX Angels in 2014. He was part of the return package for Andrelton Simmons which also netted Sean Newcomb and Erick Aybar. Ellis spent the better part of last season as part of the Gwinnett staff pitching after beginning the season in double A Mississippi. His record of 8 wins and 2 losses earned him a promotion to Triple A where he found the sledding a bit tougher. After promotion to the IL, his record sagged a bit to 3-7 with an ERA of 7.04 in 14 games and 62-2/3rds innings.

So far in the AFL, he continues to struggle with the strike zone with 11 walks and 10 strikeouts while giving up 15 hits and 14 runs, 11 earned after only 4 games and 12 innings pitched. Not exactly the kind of numbers one would hope to see from a top tier prospect. Perhaps he is tired, maybe he has an ailment he is not revealing or maybe he is trying to prefect a new pitch but whatever, it does not look good for the young righty from Mississippi. I think he is still growing into his body. Until he is able to command his pitches better, he will remain a prospect and not see the major leagues.

Evan Phillips

Next up is Evan Phillips, 6’2″, 215 lbs, a 22 year old right handed reliever who played college ball at UNC-Wilmington, NC. Drafted in the 17th round by the Braves, Phillips is one of those rare gems every scout dreams of and every GM looks brilliant for finding them and then taking them at a low cost low risk high reward situation. Phillips has shined at every stop in his professional career. While he has not put up the eye popping numbers of Jared Miller, a Diamondback prize, he was chosen as the Braves lone representative for the AFL All-star game. So far, he continues to record outs while pitching in a relief role. To date, he has appeared in six games, hurling 7.2 innings with 10 Ks and 5 walks. Aside from his first appearance, he has been solid in relief for the Salt River Rafters. While he has given up three earned runs, he has a .143 BA against so far in the AFL.

Evan is currently listed as the Braves #99 prospect but I suspect that number will rise as he continues to progress in the Braves system. His good work in Arizona will likely earn him an invite to the Braves’ spring training camp with the big boys to continue evaluate his potential against top flight hitters. Phillips works with a three-pitch mix, featuring a fastball in the 91-94 range, touching as high as 96. He also features a hard slider and a hard curve as his third pitch, both in the mid-80s in velocity. The knock on Phillips has been his lack of control but since moving to being used strictly as a reliever, his control has improved. Don’t be surprised to see his name linked in one of the many trade rumors we are likely to hear about this winter.

Kade Scivicque

Lastly, in this trio, is cajun catching prospect Kade Scivicque (pronounced Siv-EEK) 6’0″, 225 lbs.  Kade was acquired from the Detroit Tigers organization in exchange for Erick Aybar at the trade deadline. The 23 year old native of Baton Rouge, LA, was a lightly scouted player out of LSU, taken 340th overall by the Tigers in 2016. He was not highly touted but his coaches all praised his leadership skills. He has been a little slow to develop his offense but has shown flashes of late in getting the bat on the ball. He is considered a “project” and potentially a backup candidate for the major leagues but then, you never know when a guy will finally have the lights turned on and he will “get it”. After the disappointment the Braves experienced with Bethancourt who we all heard was the next Johnny Bench, the Braves could use some over-achievers at the backstop position. I expect he will begin the 2017 season at Pearl Mississippi but if his bat continues to heat up, he could find himself at Triple A a couple of seasons ahead of schedule. He is currently batting a respectable .317 for the Rafters but it is a truly small sample size.

Next time I will preview the current Braves plying their trade in the other winter leagues.

#158: Arizona Farm League Prospects Update

 

by Gil in Mechanicsville, VA

The Braves sent their allotment of six players to the Salt River Rafters of the Arizona Fall League this month.   The league consist of six teams which are stocked by the 30 major league teams. It was conceived by the major league teams so they would have a way to monitor the progress of their young prospects without them having to leave the country. It also allowed the parent clubs to have tighter control on their prospects playing time as well as their diet and health.

Teams also wanted a winter ball league which would be convenient for both the players and for talent evaluaters. Their games are played in the Spring Training stadiums used by the Giants, Mariners, Padres, Cubs, A’s, Royals, Rangers, D-backs and Rockies. All of these stadiums are within 15 minutes of each other and the climate is conducive to late season baseball.

In all, 180 players are selected to play in the league with each major league holding a position draft to select the players who will play for each team. The players in the Arizona Fall League are good. The 2014 All-Star Game in Minneapolis featured 36 AFL alums. Nearly 60 percent of all AFL players make a Major League roster, with an incredible 212 All-Stars, 12 MVPs, four Cy Young Award Winners, three World Series MVPs, 66 Silver Sluggers, 58 Golden Gloves, and 25 Rookies of the Year.

First up is Dustin Allen Peterson, a 22 year old outfielder who was acquired from the San Diego Padres for outfielder Justin Upton. Peterson is currently playing left field for the Rafters. Drafted in the second round (50th overall) by the Fathers, he hales from Gilbert, Arizona, so he gets to visit his parents this fall.

Currently ranked as the 18th best prospect in a loaded Atlanta farm system, he batted .282 with 88 RBI and an OPS of .774.  Peterson hit 12 home runs but struck out 100 times in 578 plate appearances. While in the Padres farm system, he played 3rd base but the Braves moved him to the outfield after he was traded and in 2016, he started 5 games in center field and 125 games in left. Evidently, the Braves feel his best path to the show is as a right handed power hitter.

He is still a couple of years away from the big leagues and his fortunes will be tied to his ability or inability to make consistent contact with the ball. While the prevailing Sabermetric wisdom is that strike-outs don’t matter, you still need to hit at least .250 if you are going to play in the major leagues. Currently he is batting .308 in 26 at bats with a double, a triple and 4 strikeouts. I know, that is a very small sample size so take away what you will. He has shown some speed on the base paths but he is 6’2″ and 210 pounds. He still has some growing to do.

Next is Travis Demeritte, a former Texas farmhand who was the number one pick (30th overall) for the Rangers in 2013. Travis was acquired from Texas in exchange for right-hander Lucas Harrell and lefty reliever Dario Alvarez. Harrell you might remember was signed off the scrap heap by Atlanta and rehabilitated by the Braves. He actually pitched well for the Rangers before breaking down after two games. Sort of reminds me of the used car that lasts until just after the 30 day warranty expires, but I digress. Travis Demeritte does come with a bit of baggage, serving an 80 game suspension in 2015 for testing positive for a banned substance.

Demeritte is projected as a second baseman and has a bit more power than the prototypical second sacker. The Georgia native out of Winder-Barrow High School has shown the ability to put the ball out of the park but says his goal in the AFL is to make more consistent contact and work on plate discipline.

The Braves current number 9 prospect was actually added to the Braves contingent to Arizona after 19 year old Ozzie Albies broke a bone in is elbow on the final game of the season at Mississippi. It’s my belief that Travis profiles more as a third baseman and will likely play that position at double A Mississippi in 2017 as well as 2nd as Albies advances to Gwinnett.

The last of this year’s crop I will profile in this blog is Dylan Moore, a 24 year old shortstop, a California native who played college ball at the University of Central Florida. Dylan has only progressed to advanced A ball at Carolina until September 8th when he was assigned to Mississippi this season. Originally drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 7th round of the 2015 draft. He is a bit old to still be considered a top prospect but he is still an interesting case. The Braves evidently have seen some potential in him. Currently he is hitting .368 with two home runs for Salt River. He came to the Braves as part of a three way trade with the Florida Marlins which saw Jeff Francoeur moved to the Fish. Officially, he was acquired for “other cash considerations” specifically International slots going to the Rangers.

Dylan is listed as a shortstop and will likely start the 2017 season as the starting SS for Mississippi but he has also logged time at both second and first base. I suspect he will not be a starting shortstop in Atlanta with phenom Dansby Swanson blocking him but you just never know what the future could hold. After all, one of these guys could be converted to catcher…

#157: And it’s done…. Bring on 2017

 

      Gil in Mechanicsville, VA

Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

The lights have finally been turned off at Turner Field but not before the 2016 Atlanta Braves team put a final exclamation point on their wayward 2016 season. Yes, the Braves lost a total of 93 games this season but it is the trajectory of the team which gives hope for the future.

Perhaps we should take just a bit more stock in spring training games as a precursor as to what can be expected of a team’s fortune for the upcoming season. No, I don’t mean a winning record in the respective Grapefruit and Cactus leagues guarantees a World Series berth but it sure has portended the abysmal seasons for the Braves the last two years.

This year’s version of the team lost game after game in Florida and that same losing attitude prevailed for two months, dooming the team of any chance of having a respectable record. The Braves began the season on a pace to lose 116 games. Of course no one really expected Fredi Gonzalez to win a World Series with the collection of misfits he had been saddle with but the team took on a persona of losing. Everyone expected them to lose so lose they did. Even on TV, this team exuded defeat. They were simply playing out the string and it was only April.

When Fredi was released and Brian Snitker was promoted to take his place, no one really expected a big change, after all, he still had the same bunch of players who were going through the motions. The Braves were still woefully short on pitching, even while trading every retread they had rehabilitated for another young long term minor leaguer. Add the fact that Eric Aybar made fans pine for the since traded Andrelton Simmons with Aybar’s deer in the headlights attitude at both the plate and afield. It made fans wonder what John Coppoletta was smoking when he traded away Simba to the Angles.

But something changed, not all at once but the team played a little harder and with more moxie. Youngsters like Mallex Smith brought a spark and Freddie Freeman snapped out of his funk. Ender Inciarte came back from a stint on the DL and the team started playing teams tough. They were still losing but they were playing better and they were in most games right to the end.

The Braves were still playing mix and match with their starting staff and the bullpen had a shuttle service going between the Ted and Cool Ray. Sixteen different pitchers started games for the Braves this season. The bullpen was a disaster in search of a train wreck.

Matt Kemp

But things slowly but surely began to change. Matt Kemp was acquired from the Padres in exchange for persona non grata, Hector Olivera. No one in baseball really gave the trade much notice. The Padres were reducing their liability by sending Kemp off to the East coast. The saber-metric crowd gave a huge ho-hum to the deal as Kemp was thought to be an overpaid has been. Funny how one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. With Kemp in the line-up to protect Freeman, Mr Hugs took off. The entire line up started hitting. The defense was making plays, running into walls, diving for balls, throwing players out at the plate and generally playing like their hair was on fire.

The team started playing like they could not lose. A lot of teams 30 games out of first would just pack it in and make plans for October which did not include baseball but the Braves didn’t. If you did not know the Braves record, you would have thought they were the team playing to be in the play-offs and planned to be in the Fall Classic.

So what do we have to look forward to? The Braves are on the precipice of greatness again. Years when only one spot might be available when spring training begins. Back to the Braves way when one rookie was added to the team to break in slowly to the team loaded with talent. Now talent… Maybe this team is not yet blessed with the same level of talent as some other top tier programs but they do have something else, heart. As it stands now, I can hardly wait for spring training to begin.

Ted Turner

156: The Home Stretch & The Braves Heat Up

by Gil ‘N Mechanicsville

So here we are, the final month of the season. A point in the past where we have seen the Braves totally collapse and limp into the postseason. No such worries this year, the Braves lost this season in April with a 5 wins, 18 loss record. May and June were hardly any better going 10-18 and 12-16 respectfully, so yes, it was over early for los Bravos. In fact, until August 31st, the Braves appeared to have a stranglehold on having the first overall pick in the 2017 draft.

All that seems to have turned around though with a good, not great record, but relative to the rest of the season, a very good August. 13-15 for the month is not going to win many championships but considering the state of the Braves pitching staff, it was a pretty spectacular month. Two things seem to have the greatest impact on the turnaround for the home boys in Atlanta: (1) Matt Kemp and (2) resurgence in the young pitchers.

Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp, no longer the All-star caliber player he was in LA is still head and shoulders above anyone else the Braves have had playing left field in years. He was traded for a guy who was a huge disappointment for all concerned with both the Dodgers and Braves. The Dodgers did at least recover some of their investment but the Braves basically ate about 30MM dollars. A guy who was so toxic, the Padres dropped him before he could get on a plane and fly to San Diego. Of course Olivera will have to console himself with the 62 million dollars he is signed for. A fellow can live pretty well in the Dominican Republic with that kind of scratch.

Matt Kemp was a salary dump for the Padres, plain and simple. All I can say is it must have been a pretty miserable marriage for the offensively challenged Padres to want him off their roster. Kemp showed up in Atlanta about 30 pounds overweight and somewhat out of shape but he has made a big difference for Freddie Freeman in particular and the Braves in general. No longer fleet afoot, he still can drive in runs and has played a decent left field. In the final game with San Diego, he actually laid out for a sinking line drive. He came up just short and the ball rolled to the wall for a triple but hey, up by 7 runs at the time, it was gutsy and I’m sure the effort was not lost on his teammates.

This team might be well out of it but they are not playing like it. The final month of the season is upon us and the Braves can only play the role of spoilers. They will again be playing a majority of NL East rivals. While the Nationals have pretty much wrapped up the division, the Mets and the Marlins are both clawing for a wild card berth. The Braves are playing for a modicum of respect and several are playing for a spot on next season’s roster.

It should be interesting as to who will make up the roster when the Braves take the field in their new ballpark next April. Truthfully, I only see two spots on the roster as being givens: Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson;  everyone else is on the bubble as far as I can tell. It should be an interesting offseason for the Braves.

#155: Four Down, Two To Go

Gil in
Mechanicsville, VA

So, the Non-Waiver trade deadline has come and gone and no big news out of Atlanta. John Coppoletta said while some interest was expressed on players like reliever Jim Johnson and outfielders Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte, no one was willing to meet the Braves’ asking price. Well, I can live with that. Those players will still be available during the hot stove season to teams looking to add pieces. As it was, their was only a small number of teams looking to add pieces for the play-off push and other than Jim Johnson, no one really had a lot of value.

Matt Kemp

This week the Braves did make a trade for a player who perhaps is on the downward side of his career in Matt Kemp but a guy who still shows more power than anyone other than perhaps Freddie Freeman. A lot of teams would not have wanted to add a player like Kemp but for Atlanta, he makes tremendous sense. He is a right handed bat who can protect lefty hitting Freddie Freeman and slot nicely between Freddie and Nick Markakis. While his defensive numbers are not that great, he could still play right field in place of Markakis or left. As far as left fielders go, I doubt his defense rates below that of other players who have been regulated to the off field of baseball.

Oliverez

Perhaps the biggest upside is moving the hugely disappointing Hector Olivera off the Braves payroll. While it has been widely rumored that Olivera will be DFAed by San Diego, it is not official and I suspect the Padres would simply allow him to pass through waivers and then play him in Triple A, or not. It’s no longer the Braves’ concern as to where the Cuban-born exile will play. I guess the real question is if any of the talent evaluators who pushed for the acquisition of Olivera are still on the Braves payroll or can their opinions be trusted?

So, back to what we can look forward to short term. The Braves hope that the addition of Kemp will increase the run production against the lefthanded pitching have had such a problem with this season. While not of the same talent level of a Cespedes, at least he is a bigger power threat than most everyone else who has played in the Atlanta outfield this season. Tyler Flowers is expected to return soon and also add some power to the line up.

I doubt Mallex Smith will return prior to the September call ups. For now, the Braves biggest problem seems to be who will fill the roster as starting pitchers. Coppy flipped Lucas Harrell to the Rangers so look for Gant to fill his spot as soon as he returns to full health. Perhaps Aaron Blair will return after his stint in Triple A. Even “utility” pitcher, Joel De La Cruz could fill in as a five starter. As it is, I expect the Braves will continue to take their lumps. The schedule is filled with the rest of the NL East rivals in the near future. The Marlins are much improved since we saw the last and both they and the Mets will try to use the Braves as a stepping stone to at least a play-off berth. The Nationals are still the class of the division and August and September is when they have normally played their best baseball.

At least perhaps we are not out of spring training for this team.

 

153: Two Down, Four to Go

Gil in
Mechanicsville, VA

 

As we head into June, we have seen a slight up tic in Braves win/loss percentage.  Currently, the Bravos are in a head to head race with the Twins for the privilege of having the overall first pick in the 2017 Draft. At this point, I don’t think it will make that much difference in the broad scheme of things as far as the immediate direction the team is headed in. The baseball draft is really all about the future. While I don’t have the answer at my immediate disposal, from observations made over a lifetime, it is my opinion that those players who are drafted and make it to the big leagues often take four years or more before they become truly productive.

The Braves helped speed up the process by trading for so many good prospects last season but they are still a ways away. I suspect the emphasis will continue to be pitching for the Braves because they are just so fragile it seems. Hopefully, the Braves will also find the next David Justice or Jermaine Dye, too.  I hope the Braves have learned their lesson with Cuban players. Sure, guys like Cespedes are out there but so are players like Mike Trout. You just have to be lucky enough to be at the right place at the right time.

Perhaps the biggest failing of Frank Wren was the loss of so many seasoned and talented scouts to other organizations. I’m not talking about guys who advanced up the ladder but personnel who took lateral moves.   What we were left with were people who left the cupboard bare of talent.

In any give draft, I think a team is extremely lucky to get two players who actually make it to the big leagues. Not just on the team that drafted them but any big league team. There are so many pitfalls facing players on their way to the Show, the probability of making the right choice is akin to hitting all five numbers plus the powerball number in the lottery.

So, keep watching and praying the Braves hit the lottery this summer. As we watch the progress of kids like Kolby Allard and Austin Riley as they mature, I hope the Braves brass are watching the progress of nearly 2000 other kids who were drafted last season. We know the Braves’ needs, so do twenty-nine other teams in major league baseball. All are looking to pick each other’s pocket but trades should not be about who got the best of the trade but long term it should be how a trade helped each team meet their goal.

MLB.com 2016 Top Prospects

#148: Surprisingly, The Grass Appears Just a Little Bit Greener

Gil In Mechanicsville

As we get just a little deeper into the hot stove portion of the season, for some reason I am beginning to feel a little more optimistic about the direction the Braves are taking. Not Worlds Series optimistic mind you but .500 plus season optimistic. After all, the Mets have their very good pitching staff back, the Nationals have a new manager who might well at least get a talented team to perform up to their abilities and a Marlins team which should be better just because they are a better team than they showed last season too.

The Phillies are also on the path to rebuild but they still outplayed the Braves last year even with a very substandard pitching staff. No, the Braves look better even with the loss of a very promising young pitcher named Shelby Miller and possible the best defensive shortstop, nay, best defensive player in all baseball in Andrelton Simmons. The latter whom was worth the price of admission just to see him pull off one amazing play after another. Despite the presence of both of these talented youngsters in the line up, the Braves still managed to lose 96 games last season.

Not that such an inglorious fate could not await the 2016 club, it just feels to me the Braves have turned the corner and they did it in record time. It is a model the Marlins have employed repeatedly in the past but without great success, after all, prospect are just that, not tried and true sure fire super stars but even the superstars sometimes flame out with an ill times oblique strain or wrist strain. Every pitcher on the roster seems destined for a visit to Dr. Andrews for some “twinge” in the elbow or shoulder. Truth is, we just never know. The only answer seems to be so overstocked with players that you just overwhelm the opposition with depth.

Just like last season’s World Series winner. The did not have a team which finished number one in any category, just good enough overall to outplay the opposition when the chip were down. So, why do I feel more confident about 2016? First the returnees:

Freddie Freeman.  I think we were all a little surprised when Fab 5 Freddie mentioned that he finally felt comfortable with the treatment his was getting and no longer thought surgery would be necessary…. Crikey, surgery? Braves held that little bit of info close to the vest didn’t they? I think we all recognized Freddie was not the same player after the All-Star game but wrist are like toes and should never be trifled with. It is where a player’s “pop” comes from. Freddie saves a lot of off line balls from his infielders from going into the dugout but it is his power bat which makes him a star.

 

AJ Perzinski, the ageless one. Signed last season to serve as mentor and back up to the since departed Christian Bethancourt, he put up some really good offensive numbers as well as handle a very young pitching staff with acumen. The most hated man in baseball sure became beloved in Atlanta. Now A.J. isn’t exactly Jonathan LuCroy but I think he will do just fine sharing time with recently reaquired Tyler Flowers. Anyone else remember reading about his exploits in the Arizona Fall League as reported bu Dave O’Brien? Weird how quickly time can fly.

 

Outfielder Nick Markakis, Nick turned in a pretty solid performance last season and hopefully his power will return after having the off season to tone up. It is amazing how quickly one can lose muscle mass from inactivity. Nick still turned in impressive numbers where ever he was placed in the batting order in 2015. Unfortunately power was not one of them. The loss of Freeman and the lack of power by Markakis allowed opposing pitchers to play fast and loose with the Braves batting order.

 

Julio Teheran. With every game last season, you could see Julio mature as a pitcher. His slider improved greatly and he showed a much greater willingness to challenge hitters inside. Maybe he would not be a number one on a lot of teams but he is growing into the role. I expect a very good season from him in 2016.

 

Aybar

Now, new acquisitions: I am torn between two of the newest Braves as having the greatest immediate impact, shortstop Erick Aybar who was part of the package acquired from  LA Angels or outfielder Ender Inciarte, acquired as part of the deal which sent arguably the Braves best pitcher Shelby Miller to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Aybar is a very good shortstop, not Andrelton Simmons good but not a bad bridge to the next great Atlanta shortstop Ozhaino Albies or last seasons number one overall draft pick Dansby Swanson. Albies hails form the island of Curacao as have former Braves icons Andruw Jones and since traded Simmons. It should be interesting to see him battle it out with Swanson for the job. We might see Albies this season in June but Swanson is the same age. The difference is the young man from Curacao has come up thru the minors where as Swanson played college ball for Vandebilt. My advice is for you folks who can see either of these young men play in the minors to go while you can still afford the price of admission. It’s going to be quite a bit pricier to see the play when they make it to the big leagues.

Inciarte

As far as the value of Aybar verses Inciarte, I think Aybar will have the greatest immediate impact but Inciarte will have the longer run with the Braves. A superior centerfielder defensively and fast kid who can get on base, he could be a spark plug for the 2016 club. Depending on the progress the Braves make this season, Aybar may complete the season or be flipped at the trading deadline for yet more pitching. A lot depends on how well one of the two wunderkind develop early in the season.

The questions for the Braves afield remain at second, third and left field. Yep, that is a pretty big hole to have questions about. The Braves are hoping they did not make a huge mistake in trading away lefty Alex Woods for Cuban Hector Olivera. The Braves have been watching Olivera with the idea he could fill the need as a third baseman but have decided to try and move him to left field. The Braves know he has power but keeping him healthy might be a problem. Plan B seems to be fellow Cuban Adonis Garcia. Adonis has surprising power but is somewhat suspect when it comes to defense. We will have to wait and see how the hot corner works out for the Braves in 2016.

Flowers

Tyler Flowers was signed as a free agent to share the catching duties with AJ Pierzynski this season.  Tyler still possesses some power but he has become very adept at framing pitches. The Braves had become very disenchanted with their future star Christian Bethancourt when he failed to show the maturity of taking on the responsibilities of a major league catcher and work  and prepare for every game. Catching was never really considered an offensive position so he could have been forgiven for hitting less that .250 but defensively he was a nightmare. Maybe he will find the answer in the dessert

A couple of other honorable mentions should be free agent signees Gordon Beckham who could platoon with  Jace Peterson at second base or even Emilio Bonifacio if he has anything left in the tank. The Braves are also going to need a back up shortstop so don’t count out seeing Daniel Castro back on the Braves bench.

Okay, enough for this round, We will discuss all the pitching probabilities next time.

………….

In Memoriam

Bobby Dews

 

 

#147: Hot Stove or Open Pit?

Gil 
Mechanicsville, VA

Going back and reading some of the links posted previously, Coppy is finding Braves fans can be a tough crowd. Amazing how someone could supplant Frank Wren as the villain. No matter how well intentioned, folks get antsy when they feel you are more like Jeff Loria than Dan Dombroski.

Losing seasons are part of baseball but salary dumping is never a crowd pleaser. It’s as if the Braves have lost their focus. Changing from being a sports franchise to becoming a real estate developer. Even the most successful shopping mall has to have a couple of good anchor stores.

Unless you are a NASCAR fan, few people root for the corporate sponsor. Even so, I worked for DuPont for 25 years but never was a Jeff Gordon fan… If the Braves think a new stadium will increase the turnstile flow, they need only look at Pittsburg. Great stadium but until they started winning, most fans came disguised as empty seats.

Our old friend, Skip Caray, oft opined, the best promotion was a winning team. The Braves have to be very careful going forward. They risk alienating a whole generation of Braves fans if they are perceived as tanking. If they thought it was tough getting fans back after the baseball strike in ’93, they will find it doubly tough to comeback after losing 100 games for a few years. Add an increase in ticket prices and you could see a downward spiral from which it might be tough to pull out from.

The Braves endeavor to make Sun Trust Stadium a destination but I suspect a lot of folks can find good food or entertainment without the cover charge of $50 per ticket and having to sit through 3 hours of seeing your home team get clobbered each day. The Dodgers seem to draw quite well despite an ancient ballpark. Same could be said of Fenway. Not saying you don’t have to put money into an old park but when you can sit at home where the beer is colder, the seats are wider, the bathroom has no waiting line, and the view of the field is unobstructed, why bother to fight the traffic?

# 145: And Now, The Rebuilding Is Official

Gil In Mechanicsville

Up until about 6PM CDT Friday night, folks in Braves Country still held out hope the Braves might stage a remarkable turn of events and sneak into the play-offs with an improbable cast of characters. After all, they were only 6 games back in both the division and the second wild card. Stranger things have happened, really… Did anyone really expect the Braves to be this close going into August? Alas, with the exportation of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to NL East rival Mets, the Braves front office officially signaled to the world that the season is done. Trading two guys who have done much to add some life to a very anemic offense  for yet another pair of pitching prospects pretty much has signaled they are throwing in the towel for 2015.

Now, to be fair, it was not really a surprise for this trade to occur. The pundits and speculators have been signalling for weeks the Braves were in sell mode. The absence of Freddie Freeman from the line up has not helped either. Again, a failure to score runs can lead to a lot of losses, no matter how good your pitching is. To be honest, the Braves defense has had a bit of “Bad News Bears” quality to it. I have seen many times where sharpness with the glove has added a bit of pop to a player’s bat. Giving other teams extra outs, even bad ones, can often lead to long innings, many extra pitches and losses and lots of unearned runs.

So, what now? I expect some other moves to be made soon. Jim Johnson, A.J. Perzinski, Cameron Maybin and others may soon be traded to teams still in the hunt. None figured to be long term fixtures in Atlanta anyway as the rebuild towards their goal of putting a winning team in their spanking new stadium in 2017. For those of us who were spoiled by all the success of the Braves from 1991 to 2005, it is a bitter pill to swallow. Not like it has been unknown to fail in Atlanta, look at the past couple of years.

One thing we have all come to understand is nothing is a given in baseball. Sure, good pitching usually beats good hitting but a player and a team with talent still normally beats one with only desire. So, as the team rebuilds, fans need to look at the current situation as a process. Look for the silver lining as young pitchers hone their craft. Speaking from personal experience, the lessons learned from failure were often more deeply entrenched than those learned from success. Sure, even a blind squirrel will find a nut once in a while but you don’t see too many blind squirrels getting fat.

We will need to look at each player through the eyes of a scout rather than the eyes of a fan. It’s okay to be critical in your view but not to criticize, after all, they are human beings. Some will have the talent to stay, some will not. Let’s be realistic in our expectations. not many Chipper Jones or Greg Madduxs come along. That is why only 1% of all the professional major league players are ever inducted into the Hall of Fame. Let’s look at it as an opportunity to build another great dynasty in Atlanta. It is just tough sometimes watching them make the sausage.

#136: New faces for 2015 and beyond, Part I

by Gil in Mechanicsville, VA

One of the first trades made by new President of Baseball Operations/ General Manager John Hart was to trade Gold Glove outfielder Jason Heyward and reliever/long jumper Jordan Walden to St. Louis for right handed pitcher Shelby Miller and minor league prospect Tyrell Jenkins. While Miller has battled some inconstancy during his two years as a part of the St Louis rotation , he has shown constant improvement and when coupled with young Julio Teheran and Alex Woods, it should form the core of a very good major league rotation.

The 6 ‘ 3” 215 pound Miller hales from Houston Texas. He fills a dire need the Braves have found themselves in for starting pitching. The Braves have a promising starting pitcher who will be under full club control for the next four years. Of course, pitchers may be the most fragile human beings on earth with the difference between long term success and sudden flame out being a few strands of sinew attached between their ulna and humerus.

The 24 year old Miller features a complement of a 94 mph fastball and a plus curveball which he used in combination 98% of the time. After the All-Star break in 2014, he added a sinker into his repertoire with very positive results. The addition of the sinker added a critical third pitch needed by every successful starting pitcher. Miller’s major league history has shown an increase in the number of innings thrown each season as he matures. It is not unreasonable to expect Miller to exceed 200 innings pitched in 2015.

While Miller’s won loss record of 10-9 in 2014 might be somewhat deceiving in his true value, fans should remember that the Braves primary lefty and former number one draft pick, Mike Minor, posted a record of 6-12 last season. So, rather than throw out a bunch of stats, let’s just state that Miller is project to be a top of the order starter for the Braves. We all know it begins with pitching. While it will be tough for the 2015 Braves to compete head to head with the stellar staff assembled by the Washington Nationals and the up and coming flame throwers in New York and Miami, the Braves still have to play those games on the field. We cannot simply write those games off.

The other addition to the Braves’ roster in the trade was young Tyrell Jenkins. Another lanky Texas native. He has experience some shoulder problems but may have discovered the cause of his problems being related to  taking a very long stride on the mound. Do not expect Jenkins to appear in Atlanta anytime soon and will likely begin 2015 at double A or high A ball but it is expected he will advance quickly as he perfects his change up to go along with his 2 seam and 4 seam fastball. He pitched well this year in the Arizona Fall League against older and more experienced batters. He has been projected by St Louis brain trust as a potential top of the rotation starter.

#135: What Should Braves Fans Really Expect in 2015?

Gil
Mechanicsville, VA

With the trades of Jason Heyward and Justin Upton this winter, the new Braves President of Baseball Operations/General Manager has sent a message that the future is still in the future. Although the Braves surprised everyone in the baseball world by winning the 2013 NL East pennant sprinting past the Washington Nationals who quite frankly, under performed the first five months of the season. The Nats only became relevant the final month of the 2013 season but it was too little too late and the Braves held on to win the flag.

2014 started off like gang busters for the Braves with a pitching staff that surprised everyone by posting a combined ERA of 1.50 for the month of  April.  Everyone in Braves Country was giddy with the surprise success of this team. Alas, it did not last and when the pitchers began to flag under the unrealistic pressure of maintaining such an other-worldly mark, the offense failed to pick them up. Anyone who knows anything about baseball knows it is not just pitching that wins baseball games, you need to put some runs on the board too.

There is a huge difference in being able to pitch with a three or four run lead than having to worry about one pitch, one mistake, one hanging breaking ball being the difference between being on the winning or losing end of a baseball game. It is often said that it is not just the number of pitches thrown in a game by a pitcher but the amount of high stress pitches thrown. Give a pitcher a five run lead and he can relax a little bit and challenge opposing hitters and not worry about being so fine with his pitches he starts trying to hit the corners with every pitch. Unfortunately for the Braves’ offense, their hitters were not only were fooled by pitches out of the strike zone, they also did not make opposing pitchers pay for their mistakes either.

Other than April of last year, the Braves posted only a .500 or sub .500 record. The worst month was September when they simply folded like a cheap suit after the Nats caught them and then never looked back. Washington finally woke up and realized they were as good as advertised.  They were, however, eliminated by the Giants who were on their way to their third World Series Championship in five years.

So, what do we have to look forward to for 2015?  To begin with, the Braves brain trust has determined they were not going to beat out the Nationals with the talent already assembled by since-departed GM Frank Wren and company. Perhaps the lingering bad taste of having to eat bad contracts to under performing second baseman Dan Uggla and the five year contract of B.J. Upton outweighed the single pennant won in 2013 and the miracle pick up of Arron Harang and Ervin Santana to replace injured Chris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. More telling is beyond Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Aderlton Simmons and Julio Teheran, the Braves scouting department had little to show for their efforts during Frank Wren’s tenure as GM for the club. That and the fact he was running off some of the Braves’s best scouting talent, the total collapse of the Braves in September appear to be the final straw to break the camel’s back. Perhaps the only real surprise was that Freddie Gonzalas remained at the helm of the team as manager.

It appears that Bobby Cox, who himself appeared at odds with since-departed GM Wren and may have even hastened his own retirement, likely saved Freddie’s job. After all, if you don’t have the horses to begin with, it’s hard to win the race.

Now, what do we have to look forward too? Interim GM John Hart and his staff have made the conscious decision that the Braves were faced with three realities:

1: they were not going to get any better with the current team assembled.

2: they desperately needed pitching to stay relevant in 2015.

3: there was no help on the horizon coming from a severely depleted minor league farm system.

There are lots of reasons for the third but the most likely suspect is the robbing of Peter to pay Paul theory. That is, in order to keep corporate owner happy with the bottom line, they cut corners in their minor league system  to stay within a budget set forth by team owner, Liberty Media. That was made even more severe after the negotiation of what appears to be an under valued TV contract. While teams like the Dodgers are reaping billions from their contract, America’s team got pennies on the dollar. After all, the Braves are still rated as the third most popular franchise in America following Ted Turner’s brilliant decision to buy both the team and a little known local UHF station in Atlanta and market them nationally via cable.

Tyrell Deon Jenkins     7/20/1992 Henderson, TX
Bats/Throws: R/R
HT: 6’4” WT: 204

Shelby C. Miller (P)
Born: October 10, 1990 
Houston, Texas
Bats/Throws R/R

John the Elder made two trades to address the problem by first trading Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to St. Louis for rising star Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins.

He then traded soon-to-be free agent Justin Upton to the Padres for a bevy of young talent in a minor-league haul, including two former first-round picks:

 

 

 

 

MAX FRIED (P)

age 20, b.  Jan 18, 1994
Ht/Wt: 6’3’/180
Bats/Throws:  Left/L

 

 

JACE RYAN PETERSON

Born: 5/9/1990 in Lake Charles, LA
Bats/Throws: L/R HT: 6’0″ WT: 210
Debut: 4/25/2014 College: McNeese State

 

 

DUSTIN ALLEN PETERSON

Age: 20 (September 10, 1994) in Phoenix, AZ
Bats/Throws: R/R Ht: 6′ 2″ Wt: 180
Draft: Round 2 (2013, SD)

 

 

MALLEX LYDELL SMITH

Born: 5/6/1993 in Tallahassee, FL
Bats/Throws: L/R
HT: 5’9″ WT: 170

 

MANNY BANUELOS

Born: March 13, 1991 (age 23), Gómez Palacio, Durango, Mexico
Height: 5′ 11″
Weight: 198 lbs
Bats: Left-handed

Banuelos is now into his second year of recovery of Tommy John surgery and is expected to vie for the fifth starter’s spot in the rotation.

Alberto Callaspo

The Braves had already signed journyman second baseman Alberto Callaspo, late of the Athletics as a place holder for Braves prospect Jose Peraza but the acquisition of Jace Peterson from the Friers may have pushed young Peraza down a spot on the depth chart.

A J Pierzynski

The Braves also have inked veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski to serve as the backup/mentor for young Christian Bethancourt at the catcher’s position and allow the Braves to move slugger Evan Gattis to the left field position so his bat can be added to the everyday line up for the Bravos.

Nick Markakis

The Braves also signed free agent Nick Markakis of the Orioles to a 4 year $44 million dollar contract to play right field in place of the since traded Jason Heyward. Markakis has a couple of gold gloves to his credit himself and is known to be a contact type hitter. While he is probably better suited to hit second, he will likely be drafted to take Heyward’s spot as the lead off man in the line up given the Braves lack of other likely candidates for that position.

So, as it stands, with the Nationals pretty much standing pat and the Marlins vastly improving their club from last season, the Braves look to fight it out with the Mets for third place in the division ahead of the aging Phillies. Never say never however, after all, the 1991 Braves were picked by one and all to finish last in the National League West then dominated by Dodgers. A lot has to go right for the Braves this season and a few things have to go wrong for the Fish and the Nats but baseball is a game played on the field, not on paper. Now if only Hart and company can figure out some way to either trade the other Upton brother and his over the top contract away so they can have a little financial flexibility or somehow BJ himself take personal responsibility for his poor play and learns how to hit again so as not to be a drag on the club, the 2015 Braves might just have a chance to be more than just a footnote on the way to the 2015 World Series.

#133: The Future Is Now

Vox O’Raisins

 

2015 STARTS NOW

Not feeling very good about our team this morning. Let me clarify… not feeling good about it as a whole. Sure, there are elements and players that I still am glad we have. Freddie, Jason (hopefully for more than just 2015), Simba, most of the pitching staff…

But as a whole, this team was more than just painful, they were embarrassing. At a time when the Braves faced must-win games at home, when they had to show their mettle, they were outscored 27-9 over six games. They were shutout twice. They scored in just 4 innings out of 53. 4 out of 53! They managed just 3 ER off 6 starting pitchers. In all my years of watching baseball, I’ve never seen anything like it. This was beyond collapse. Something has to be standing up to collapse. This team seemed as though they never got off the bench.

I need to qualify that statement. Our pitchers need to sue the rest of the team for non-support. We have a lineup full of dead-beat-batters. Our starters have notched a league leading 108 quality starts through game 156 to date this season. The segment that should have an excuse, that was truly decimated before pitch 1 of game 1, leads MLB in quality starts. Yet, the Braves are heading toward a sub-.500 team for only the 3rd time since 1990.

It’s mind-boggling.

Things change over time, and sometimes change quickly. Two weeks ago, I advocated for Frank to be given one more shot to correct his mistakes. As recently as a few days ago, I half-heartedly stood up for Fredi in that he has been dealt a rotten hand. But the series against the Mets revealed more than just the obvious flaws we’ve discussed ad nauseum. Frank assembled a team that lacks certain necessary game elements to be effective, and he allowed the team’s leaders to leave at the same time. His inability to get along with other staff directly led to long-time and highly respected scout Dom Chiti and coveted pitching instructor Dave Wallace leaving for other teams. And it was revealed over the weekend that John Schuerholz is the one that stepped in to the breach and prevented Roger McDowell from departing to the Phillies. This team lost several strong planks and attempted to replace them with Popsicle sticks. The boat is sinking, fellas.

Fredi Gonzalez

As for Fredi, yes he was dealt a rotten hand. But he looked totally lost and defeated over this last week as well. He appeared to be grasping at straws. And while he did seem to manage his pitchers better this year, his mis-handling of Even Gattis is just unforgivable to me. And let’s not forget this is the 2nd September in the last 3 that the Braves looked like they were making vacation reservations early.

No, there is much work to be done both on and off the field. We have 2 years left before we open a brand new ballpark and a new era for the team. There is no way that Terry McGuirk and John Schuerholz are going to let this bunch pave the way. This is the offseason for the foundation to be laid. Frank is and Fredi should be gone, along with Walker/Fletcher and Tosca, and likely Dascenzo. I still believe TP and EP should be safe, given their long term ties to the championship days of this team.

At least John Schuerholz finally did what had to be done and canned Wren and his right hand man Burse Manno more changes are likely. My money is on John Coppolella, but with the appointment of John Hart as interim GM and the announcement of a blue ribbon search committee consisting of Schuerholtz, Hart and surprisingly Bobby Cox, anything is possible. That said, the new guy will get started with evaluating the team top to bottom.

I would have liked to see TP lead the last 7 games to see what he’s got. I’d would be nice to see if he could rally the troops and get this team to show some pride before heading to the beach or the golf course or the woods. However, perhaps his recent back trouble precluded that. That and Bobby Cox’s support of Fredi Gonzalez.  For better or worse, Bobby still appears to be willing to take a bullet for his guy.

As far as any great hope for 2014, it walked out the door yesterday. The push for 2015 should started today.

~ Raisins ~

 

#132: PO-TEN-TIAL

by Vox O’Raisins

PO·TEN-TIAL

adjective:  having or showing the capacity to become or develop into something in the future

noun:  

1. latent qualities or abilities that may be developed and lead to future success or usefulness

2. physics:  the quantity determining the energy of mass in a gravitational field                                 or of charge in an electric field.

 

The Braves simply do not have the pieces in place to be a championship team, and I have to keep reminding myself that they are very young. What are they missing?

Dizzy Dean

 

 

 

#1.  a rotation leading ace. That’s right, I said it again. It’s much ballyhooed, and much debated, but a champion has an ace to lead the way. Julio has the potential, but an ace doesn’t go into a critical game, get a lead, and wet his pants.  Julio did that yesterday.  Most championship contenders have that tough 1-2 punch, like Kershaw-Greinke or Verlander-Scherzer.. The Braves have… uh, Teheran-Harang?

 

 

 

#2.  a slugger. One might think about Gattis or JUp or Freddie. The NL HR leader as of today is the Fish’ Stanton with 26. The closest Brave is JUp with 19, tied for 7th. The league RBI leader as of today is also Stanton with 74. The closest Brave is JUp with 64, tied for 8th. Both are middle of the road of 15 teams. Not championship caliber.

 

 

 

#3.  a leader. The great teams have a strong character leading the way ala Chipper Jones. The current Braves have a couple of Cali surfers, a couple of guys from a FLA retirement haven, and a handful of dudes who barely speak English. The only 2 guys who show any fire at all are BJ, who vents his K frustrations at umpires, and Chris Johnson, whom I really think may be a little unstable.

 

 

Here’s a curveball for you…

Fredi Gonzalez

 

I have vented plenty at Fredi, and I think he has deserved most of that, but to be honest he’s been dealt a pretty rotten hand. And none of us knows how much pressure he gets from above to play certain players. His biggest fault may simply be that he doesn’t handle the press as deftly as Bobby, and therefor makes himself out to look like a doof. He’s had pitchers go down quicker than a Malaysian airliner, multiple black holes in his lineup, and no clear productive hitters on which to hinge any lineups. And somehow, even after a historic roadie to the worst coast, we are still in the hunt in mid-August. I guess he can do something right.

Here’s the 2-edged sword. Things are not likely to improve a whole lot over the off-season. We’re locked in to most of our pieces, and don’t have the financial flexibility to make any significant upgrades. But the flip side is that Julio does have ace-potential. Freddie does have slugger-potential. And any number of our youngsters could step up and become a leader.. potentially. But it’s all potential.  I had a coach in high school who taught me that “potential just means you ain’t done $#!+ yet.” I guess the key word is “yet”.

Will those elements emerge? Maybe. The potential is on the roster. But they ain’t done $#!+ yet…

~ Vox O’Raisins ~

#131: And away we go…

Gil
Mechanicsville, VA

The proverbial second half of the the Major League baseball season has begun. I say  proverbial because the the real halfway point occurred several weeks ago. As I    hammer away at the keyboard, the Braves are in a virtual tie for first place in the NL  East with the Washington Nationals. Virtual because to date, the Braves are 10  games over .500 with a record of 54-44 while the Nats are also 10 games over .500 at  53-43 with two games in hand over the Braves.

 

Surprisingly, this has come when the Braves have been all over the map as far as their play this season, part great pitching, part timely hitting, they have also have suffered through some abysmal stretches when it comes to making contact with the ball and scoring runs coupled with some leaky defense and erratic relief pitching. For some reason, those last two seem to go hand-in-hand.

 

In the past week, the long awaited departure of Dan Uggla mercifully took place the first day back from the All-Star break. With the remaining balance of approximately $19 million still on the Braves books, Dan will likely now be offered a league minimum contract by a team looking to catch a little lightning in a bottle from the 3-time All-Star. My guess would be Dan’s best bet would be with an American League team looking for a guy who can serve as a DH and not expose him too often to the perils of using him in the field. I still think he could play first base on occasion but that is a thread to be discussed by Dan’s potential suitors.

 

Gattis

The Braves look to regain the services of El Orso Blanco on Monday. What the Braves gain in offense, they will lose in the defense so ably displayed by young Christian Bethancourt. The 22-year-old back stop has quickly gained the confidence of the Atlanta Braves pitching staff and looks to be primed to play everyday for somebody in the majors. While Gattis is prized for his prowess with a bat, his glove work has appeared lacking this season. While defense wins championships, you need somebody to get you at least one run and Gattis has shown the ability to deliver when the chips are down.

 

Still, the Braves still are face with some needs, a reliable veteran situational lefty relief pitcher and a power bat for the left side bench. A good lead off man and center fielder would be very beneficial too but perhaps we can flog that dead horse another day.

BJ Upton

Just as Dan Uggla’s $13m per year contract became Frank Wren’s albatross, I fear Melvin Jr.’s contract is bird of the same feather. Melvin’s defense is suspect at best and his bat hardly justifies his big payday but at least it did not also cost the Braves any of their prized prospects. That would only have made the deal worse. Well, no one forced the Braves into signing BJ, they did it knowing full well his pluses and minuses. I just don’t think they realized his minuses would be so large.

 

 

Phil Gosselin

The Bravos brought up Tyler Pastornicky to fill Dan Uggla’s spot on the roster. Some have wondered why Philip Gosselin was not allowed to remain with Atlanta but because he had already been returned to Triple A, he could not return for 10 days. Time will tell if the Pastor sticks with the big club or swaps places with young Gosselin. One has to wonder why the Braves did not really see the impending release of Uggla sooner. I expect the shuttle will be rather active between Atlanta and the farm clubs until the Braves find the right mix.

 

So, looking forward, what can we expect of this very young squad who became even younger with the release of Uggs. August looks to be the make or break portion of this season’s schedule for Atlanta. Nothing but contenders lined up with the likes of Oakland, Seattle, the Dodgers and Pirates as well as the Braves’ nemesis the Mets. Time will tell if the Braves are still fighting to hold off the pre-season favorite Nats or trying to chase them down in September.

#130: Time to pull the plug, Frank….

Gil in Mechanicsville, VA

The Dan Uggla situation has extended beyond what any reasonable person should have to endure. I think  everyone gets it, Dan is past his prime and the Marlins snookered the Braves into taking a guy who was going to be  way over priced. The Braves should  have seen it for what it was. It is like many other GMs  discovered in the past  when trading the Braves for a  pitcher whom the Bravos had given up on. Said  pitchers hardly ever recovered  after being discarded by the Braves.

Perhaps it is Frank Wren’s ego which will not allow him to admit he made a mistake. Message to Frank, get over it. If you don’t make a mistake or two, you are not trying hard enough. Okay, Kenshin Kawakami was a huge goof but Bobby Cox was involved in that a little bit. Never sign a pitcher who you have not personally seen in action yourself. Of course Melvin Upton may be on track to equal that blunder in scope. I’ve said it before, Melvin Junior stands to be the Braves’ Jason Bay. At least we all understood when you were forced to sign Derek Lowe for 4 years and $60 million, the Braves needed pitching and the Braves did actually get some value from him.

Get over it Frank, cut the cord and move on. You have to look at the situation as the cost of doing business. Salary is salary, whether you are paying one guy 90% or everyone gets an equal share, at the end of the day, it is what you are paying your team. It is why most teams are loath to give more than a three year contract and players push for huge payouts because it guarantees them a spot on a roster, no matter have miserably they fail.

Dan Uggla

So let it be with Dan Uggla, even if he is released tomorrow, it will not be the worse failure or bad trade the Braves have ever had. That distention still belongs to Ted Turner for the Len Barker trade and to Jonathan Schuerholz for when he traded away the farm in 2007 for Mark Texeria. Of course, the Rangers were pretty happy with what they got. It propelled them into the World Series for a couple of years. That said, think about how Billy Bean felt after trading away Tim Hudson for Tommy Tee and two pitching prospects who never panned out.

Uggla

Throughout Dan’s exile to the nether world of the far end of the bench, all we have heard is how Dan has stayed professional. Working hard to stay ready and rooting for his teammates despite the fact he has become persona non grata on the 25 man roster. hey, he has done some good things for the team. Perhaps the Braves can restructure his contract so he gets paid $1 million dollars a year for the next 30 or so years in exchange to agreeing to his release. The Braves are going to have to pay him anyway. Dan is not stupid, he is not going to quit or refuse an assignment. After all, if the Braves are willing to play with a 24 man roster, he is willing to also serve for another season and one half.

Not every trade is a bad one, sometimes you get lucky. Chris Johnson is a great example of that. So keep the line moving

 

 

128: And It Begins Again

by Gil Elliott
‘Gil from Mechanicsville’

So, here we are again, the annual rite of spring, opening day of Major League Baseball. Okay, so the Dodgers and Diamondbacks got a jump on everyone by going down under in a convoluted scheme by the commissioner to expand the brand of MLB by playing a three day set in Australia. So, the Dodgers are up by 3 and Arizona is mired deep in the cellar of the NL West and everyone else is still busy unpacking and repacking as they prepare for the 2014 season.

However, since this is a Braves site, I won’t waste a lot of time worrying about the other 29 teams in MLB, I am going to focus primarily on this blog’s namesake. So, without further ado, let’s discuss the pluses and minuses of the Braves’ 2014 addition. First the pluses. Location, location, location…. or in baseball speak, the schedule. As opposed to last season when the Braves has one of the toughest schedules to begin the year, this season, Atlanta faces one of the easiest schedules. I’m not saying the Braves will win three out of every four games but at least they should not be mired 10 games behind the Nationals by April 10th. Is that even possible?

Santana

The Bravos who are clearly wounded by the double whammy of Kris Medlin and Brandon Beachy going down on successive days to elbow injuries, the Braves went from pitching rich to pitching poor almost over night. At least the braves were fortunate to have Ervin Santana still available for a late spring acquisition. While Santana might never be confused as a Greg Maddux level signing, he certainly may prove to be the guy who saves Christmas for the Bravos this season.

Minor

Mike Minor and his “Damn Brother, I don’t Think I would Have Told That” condition/injury which I am sure must have been both painful and embarrassing for him. I think I would have just said I got dropped kicked in the family jewels in a bar fight and been done with it. Anyway, at least it is not an elbow….. He should be back by May and along with off season trade pick-up Gavin Floyd, who is also returning from Tommy John surgery should give the 2014 Braves a much different look as far as their pitching staff goes. After all, a starting staff of Ervin Santana, Mike Minor, Gavin Floyd, Julio Teheran and Alec Wood/Arron Harrang seems infinitely more intimidating, at least on paper, than one of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Arron Harrang and David Hale.

Venters

Of course, you just never know. Every team is on small tendon away from being on tap to being an also ran. The Braves still have a potentially strong bullpen staff. One which is the main difference between them and 20 or so other major league teams. Not saying there are not so weak links but getting back a strong Jonny Venters for the second half could be a real difference maker.

Uggla

And think, we have not even begun to talk about the Braves’ offense. That could be the real difference this season for the Bravos. A rejuvenated Dan Uggla appears to be set to finally be the guy Frank Wren traded away play maker Omar Infante for. $13 million dollars a season is not that big a contract these days as far as professional baseball players go but for the Braves, it is a significant chunk of coin. Along with BJ Upton who without question was the biggest disappointment for Atlantan’s since Sherman broke thru the defenses of John B Hood in 1864, Uggla and BJ both appear ready to finally pay off on Wren’s investments.

Doumit

Ryan Doumit also looks to be a good off season pick-up for Atlanta. A guy who has power and can play several different positions as well as catch give the Braves some protection against Evan Gattis not being able to live up to last year’s storybook season. I’ll be honest, I think Evan will get off to a bit of a slow start because he has not had the opportunity to get his timing down this spring. Remember, last year Evan won a spot due to his red hot bat which had the benefit of some winter ball to get him going. This year, we learned El Orso Blanco had off season surgery on his left knee. Who knew it was a problem? No one ever mentioned it last season. Still, the Braves will miss BMac but all and all, I think the Braves will be okay at the back stop position.

Freeman

Freddie Freeman has been red hot all spring, he looks to be finally become the Super Star a lot of us all thought he would be. Personally, I have thought Fab 5 has been overlooked by a lot of folks as far as his value to the team. A lot of balls are snagged by Freddie that go as throwing errors for the rest of the infield whenever someone else occupies the 3 spot.

 

Heyward

Jason Heyward has looked strong this spring and is poised to be the biggest and strongest lead off man in the majors. Put that in with a gold glove defense and I think we will finally see J-Hay begin a string of All-Star appearances. The other brother from a different mother (and father) Justin Upton hopefully will play with a little more fire. He can be really, really good at times but he sure can give appearances of being lackadaisical at times.

Simba keeping up his excellent glove work as well as the improved play of Chris Johnson at third can really benefit the Atlanta pitching staff. While I think it will be really difficult for CJ to repeat his 2013 season as far as his batting average is concerned, Andrelton’s continued maturity at the plate should make up for it. Simmons has surprising power but it is his low OBP which is worrisome.

The Braves have a strong bench with Doumit, Pena, Laird, Schafer and Pasternicky. The one thing the Braves lack is an extra power bat from the left side. Did we ever think that would be the case? After being lefty heavy for so many years?

So, let the games begin! Try not to get too high or too low because as we have seen for so many seasons, things can change in the blink of an eye. Riding high in April, shot down in May…. So true, especially in baseball. 162 games of nail biting and then there are the play offs but first you have to throw out the first pitch.

126: Ah, Spring, Renewed Hope

by Gil Elliott

What an odd winter we as fans of the Braves have experienced. It began with the announcement the Braves would be moving into their own house beginning in 2017 to a location 17 miles north of the Ghetto. Away from the site of occupancy they have plied their trade for nearly fifty years now.

I guess when we think about a club making a “big move”, that is not exactly what most fans would let come to mind. Not that I blame the Braves organization for wanting to look at how they can stay relevant. They are saddled with what is considered one of the worse local TV deals in all of professional sports. That’s right, not just baseball but in all pro sports.

Well, if you are handed lemons, it is good to know how to make lemonade and a little lemon zest to get maximum return on your lemons. Maybe even plant a few seeds to grow your own lemon trees, too. Looks like the Braves may have done just that.

Huddy

BMac

No big free agent signing occurred this season by the Braves. It was really more of a subtraction than an addition in that respect. Former Braves “Baby Brave” Brian McCann signing long term with Yankees for $85MM and mildly surprising bull dog and former staff ace Tim Hudson bolting to the west coast for a 2 year $23MM deal. I would suspect that is about double what the Braves were willing to risk for a guy who is in decline. I can’t really fault either party for that one. The Braves just did not value Tim that much and BMac’s departure has been long seen by many as a one-trick pony whose future is in a place where he needs to hit only four times a game to be successful.  Big Poppi in Boston has certainly been able to make a living doing just that.

In a real baseball league, everyone has to hit and play the field on a fairly regular basis. So, how do you stay relevant where your competition are getting 2 billion dollar local TV deals? Looks like the Braves have made a good start. They have taken a page out of the government’s play book and put in a bunch of back loaded contracts. Not that I don’t applaud Frank Wren and company for thinking outside the box a bit by locking up the core of their home grown talent that has some pretty significant balloon payments at the end. (Didn’t they outlaw those in the mortgage industry?)  Anyway, if it looks good and gives the Braves some stability in keeping their core players together, all the better.

JHey

It looks like a lot of money but the way the contracts are structured, it will be the problem of the next owner and General Manager when 2018 rolls around. The Braves will likely have to pay Heyward if he finally develops into another Freddie Freeman as far as a reliable, everyday player or super star. Other than Robinson Cano, I did not really see player contract escalating this past off season. Heck, in five years, who knows what the dollar will be worth?

So! Where does that leave us? The Braves had a surprisingly good team last year. They really were a .500 hundred team for the most part but they took full advantage of a couple of 14 game winning streaks and the too late surge by a disappointing Nationals team who for all intents and purposes took their pre season press clippings a little too seriously. What was their greatest weakness?  Their bullpen, and all of us have seen that movie before.

So, what to expect this season from the Braves? A lot has to go right for the Braves to repeat as NL East champions:

Evan Gattis

– An Evan Gattis who can continue to inspire blue collar guys everywhere by swinging a big bat and tape measure home runs. That and he continues to hold up behind the plate.

Freeman

– A Fab 5 who continues to be clutch at the plate and keeps saying infield errors with the incredible ability to snare baseballs off the deck and way off the mark at first.

Andrelton Simmons

– A super star shortstop who is beginning to look like the next Ozzie Smith, who shows a bit more maturity at the plate and improves his on base percentage with more walks and line drives and fewer pop ups.

Chris Johnson

– The Braves have to hope that the guy who was considered a “throw-in” for fan favorite Marteen Prado continues to amaze with a a hot bat and an improved glove at third.

For the Braves to stay on top, in addition to the above, two of the most disappointing players in Braves history have to at least be among the league average when it comes to hitting. They say strike outs are no worse than any other out. But, with automatic strike outs every at bat, far too often we see the bases loaded with no outs – yet no one scores.

A young pitching staff full of number twos and threes are going to have to step up and stay focused on keeping their team in the game and hope the good guys can hit a three run homer or two and not feel the need to be perfect every game. It is that feeling of continuous pressure which leads to ulcers and gray hair.

Kimbrel

The Braves secret weapon still has to be their shut-down bull pen. That is the real reason the Braves finished where they did last season. No team outside the Yankees can bludgeon the opposition into the submission every game – and even they found out what it means to have a weak pitching staff.

The Braves may have lost O’Flararty to the A’s this season but they have been without him for quite a while. They still have the best closer in baseball and don’t ever think that the last 3 outs in a baseball game isn’t the hardest to get. The only people who don’t think so are the teams who don’t have that “go-to” kind of guy . Just like having an Ace at the top of the pitching staff who gives your team confidence they can put up a W whenever he takes the mound, having a shut down guy at the end of the game helps everyone on the team try to turn it into a 6 inning game.

SO LET’S GO BRAVES… LET”S REPEAT!!!

125: Hall Of Fame: Destiny Fulfilled

by Gil Elliott
‘Gil from Mechanicsville’

This past week, we discovered that two essential parts of the long time Braves’ stellar pitching triumphant were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Greg Maddux, aka Doggie, was without question one of the best pitchers ever to tie up a pair of baseball cleats. Those of us who were blessed with the opportunity to see Maddux pitch both in person or via the once venerable super station TBS remember so many of the gems hurled in under two hours. In an age where the average American League game often extended into four hours, when Greg was scheduled to pitch, you could still watch the game and bet on it being over early enough for you to watch your favorite prime time TV show.

Mad Dog

I doubt Greg Maddux was the inventor of the strategy of pitching to contact, but he certainly was the master of its implementation. Often asked if he thought he would ever pitch a no hitter, he would reply that he doubted it. It just was not part of his game. Never blessed with the power to blow away hitters, he did possess the mind of a genius when it came to setting up hitters and keeping the ball off the sweet spot of the bat. Barry Bonds referred to him as old dipsy doddle because he never threw anything straight. Watching the game on TV allowed for us was to see the incredible movement on the ball no matter what he pitched. Ball control was his game. Anytime he issued a walk, it was of the intentional verity. The same is said of whenever he hit a batter. While he would profess innocence, everyone in the park knew his control was so fine, it was unfathomable that he could let one slip. He once pitched 51 consecutive innings without issuing a walk. Seldom did he throw more than three pitches to a batter. Of course in his typical self depreciating style, when ask to what he attributed his success, he cited having Rafael Furcal and Andrew Jones behind him certainly helped because he knew when the ball was struck, one of them would catch it.

Glavine

The other first ballot Hall of Farmer elected who was a huge part of the Braves’ success was Tom Glavine. Another cerebral kind of guy, his game was also to make you hit his pitch. Often that pitch was a devastating change up. He lived on the outside for so long, the strike zone would became where ever he decided it should be on a particular start. When he found that batters started crowding the plate in anticipation of his extended strike zone, he learned that pitching inside was a winning strategy too.

Glavine likely would have won his 300th game as a Brave were it not for folks pushing the limits of a relationship and Tom calling the Braves’ bluff on an inside straight. I remember Glavine starting one All Star game and giving up six consecutive singles in the first inning, all ground balls. Needless to say, the National League lost that game but it was not until years later we discovered that Glavine was pitching with two cracked ribs in that game. Not that he didn’t execute his game plan, it was just the AL was hitting them where they won’t. That was the thing about Tom Terrific, he showed other pitchers on the team you did not have to be 100% to take your turn on the mound and still be successful. It also proves one can do what he is supposed to do but it still takes 8 other guys on a team to win. Glavine possessed a certain amount of grit, likely accrued from his youth hockey days. He showed others how to play through the pain. A lot of Braves fans never forgave Tom for signing with the Mets in 2003 nor his role as the President of the Baseball Player’s Association when the player’s strike of 1994 derailed the season. Say what you will, I believe it only demonstrated further his abilities as a leader both on and off the field.

Having a Hall of Fame manager to guide them did not hurt the pair either. Bobby Cox, who will also sit on the podium along with Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa and Frank Thomas, managed his teams to success, no matter their make up. Often the Braves were accused of always waiting for the three run homer to win games, seldom stealing bases or other wise employing the running game but Bobby was simply playing with the cards he was dealt. The speedy Furcal would often turn a game into a one nothing affair after legging out a single, stealing second, moving to third on a ground ball hit to second and scoring on a sac fly. Dion Sanders was another speedster employed by Cox but the two things a Bobby Cox team was known for were pitching and solid defense. Having players in the outfield who could “go get it”. Something that often contributed to the Braves pitching staff having the league leading ERA at the end of each season.

Hopefully, in 2015 we will be able to applaud the selection of John Smoltz, the third leg of the trinity of Braves pitching. John was the antithesis of Glavine and Maddux, relying upon power and an overwhelming split-finger pitch as opposed to finesse but that is a topic for discussion on another day.

Days of Glory

124: The players may change but the game remains the same.

by Gil Elliott
‘Gil from Mechanicsville’

Dizzy Dean

Hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball. Time honored axioms of the greatest game on earth. A game which is perfect for the haze of summer for when it is meant to be played. As followers of the game, we are all familiar with names like Cy Young, Dizzy Dean, Babe Ruth, Stan Musial and hundreds more who have graced the green fields of places known as Wrigley. Turner and Ebbets Field. Stadiums as cavernous as the Mistake on the Lake in Cleveland and as intimate as Fenway. Baseball fields which all have their individual quirks and idiosyncrasies but all have the same dimensions of 90 feet between each base and 60 feet 6 inches from the pitcher’s mound to home plate. But, even with these dimensions being the same, every field is unique in the way they play. Some teams let the grass grow long to slow the ball to allow for an infield comprised of slow-footed sluggers or lightning fast if the defense is stellar.

Cy Young 1892

Every season, one team remains as the winner of the ultimate prize in baseball, to be crowned world champions. Winners of a best of seven play-offs between the final teams left after a 162 game season to qualify for the play-offs and then to outlast the remaining qualifiers for the right to play for the championship. Not surprisingly, it is not always the best team, the highest paid team, the team with the best hitter, the best pitcher but most often, it is the team which is the most clutch, is best able to withstand the pressure of the moment who are victorious. Perhaps unfairly, it is the team which can get hot at the most opportune time who gain the glory.

Avilan

Carpenter

This past season, we watched as our beloved Braves surprised most everyone in baseball by winning the National League East. Winning 96 games and beating the much ballyhooed Washington Nationals by ten games. They did this despite having their two highest paid players hit well below the infamous Mendoza line. Despite having one of the youngest teams in major league baseball. The Braves defied expectations by having a bullpen without the services of such stalwarts as Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flarety and Christian Martinez.

Ramiro Pena

Amazingly the emergence of Luis Avilan and a converted catcher by the name of David Carpenter, who by the way was released by Boston Red Sox after being traded from Toronto.

The 2013 Braves won 96 games despite having 20 players spend time on the disabled list at some point during the  season and others that missed significant time due to wear and tear. Amazingly, losing front line pitchers Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy and Paul Mulholm. Losing the services of gold glove outfielder Jason Heyward not once but twice for what amounted to 1/3 of the season. The untimely loss of super utility guy Ramiro Pena and just about every back up infielder on the 40 man roster. Jordan Schafer, who finally showed flashes of the potential the Braves saw in him when he was drafted by the them in the third round of the 2005 draft. The 2013 Braves won despite having to insert Kansas City Royal cast off Elliot Johnson at second base because Tyler Pastornicky could not make it past one week as the heir apparent at second base after a collision with Jason Heyward in short right field.

Chris Johnson

Andrelton Simmons

With Chipper Jones now a memory, Chris Johnson, who will likely never win a gold glove at third base, became a wonderful surprise with a clutch bat and strong arm and a more than adequate replacement for the foreseeable future at third base for the Bravos. All-World Andrelton Simmons who will improve the stats of every Braves pitcher who can induce a ground ball by opposing hitters and will continue to improve at the plate as he accrues acumen with the bat. A first baseman in Freddie Freeman who by all rights should be the starting first baseman for the National League All-star game for the next several years and should garner MVP consideration not only for his prowess with the bat but for the number of errant throws from the other infielders he snares as they pass within the vicinity of his position.

Evan Gattis

Everyone’s feel good story of the year, Evan Gattis has become an Atlanta legend in the course of a few short months. Exceeding everyone’s expectations by not only hitting in clutch situations but taking to a new position in left field and showing better than average ability while donning the tools of ignorance. No doubt Brian McCann will be missed when he leaves for a big payday soon but the catcher’s position is not one for which the Braves will have to seek a replacement. Christian Bethancourt, the here-to-fore heir to McCann will have to wait a while longer before he becomes the Braves number one signal caller.

So, who will be the next ex Braves besides McCann this season? Both the Braves and Tim Hudson have indicated they would like to continue their relationship. It may be the bean counters who decide if it continues. Reed Johnson’s Achilles heel may be his Achilles heel. Never counted on to be an everyday guy, he still has value both in the club house and as a right hand pinch hitter. Dan Uggla’s ability to see the light, or anything else for that matter, will be determine if he starts next season in a Braves uniform. I cannot see any other team having value for a guy who cannot make contact no matter what the price. It is not like Dan’s glove is going to keep him line up. No, Dan will either hit this spring or end up being a $13 million dollar albatross around Frank Wren’s neck.

Eric O’Flarerty or Jonny Venters, take your pick. One will stay, one will go. Let’s hope the Braves keep the right one. Personally, I think O’Flarerty would be the safer bet to keep but that does not mean he will. Comes down to where the Braves want to spend their money. BJ Upton will still be in town but methinks that if Frank’s crystal ball had given him any indication of the emergence of Evan Gattis as a right handed power bat this season, the off season signing of Upton would never have happened and 75 million dollars would have gone towards front line starter like Zack Grienke or even extending Brian McCann but that ship has sailed. Let’s all hope that BJ doesn’t become the highest paid pinch runner in the league.

~ Gil~

123: Let the Final Games Begin…

by Gil Elliott
‘Gil from Mechanicsville’

Good morning folks….. Well, the time has finally come for the Braves to make the push to go into the play-offs with a big head of momentum.

I think the last thing we Braves fans want to see is the Los Bravos backing into October. I guess this means for me, no more Kameron Loe, no more “B” squad line ups, no more en mass days of rest.

Funny how even with a 14 game lead, how tenuous I feel about the Atlanta team’s chances going into October.

The Braves have a stable of pitchers who are capable of throwing a no hitter on any given night, unfortunately, they are also capable of being bombed out of existence on any given night. Besieged by walks, coupled with tape measure home-runs.

So, what to do? First off, put Philly out of their misery quickly. Then dispatch the Marlins and finally drive a stake thru the heart of the Nationals’ hope for a final wild card spot by taking all three from the gNats.

Right now, the Braves have a big ol’ bulls eye on their backs as far as the rest of the NL East is concerned. Kids trying to win a spot on next year’s roster on their respective teams. Veterans trying to show they are still relevant and teams in general saying we can beat you even if you win the title.

Working against the Braves right now are certain players who don’t feel the need to continue to play all out. We have seen many times in the past that employing the button downed, aloof approach as far as the playoffs has backfired on the Braves.

The one real edge this year’s edition of the Atlanta Braves is they are all relatively young, but still have been hardened by the memories of past failures.

They also have shown the ability to overcome the loss of key players. Despite the

absence of Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Jonny Venters, Christian Martinez, Eric O’Flarety and at times Jorden Walden and others, the Braves have continued to lead the league in wins, ERA, saves and other assorted stats.

Despite the absence at various times their front line catcher, Brian McCann, time spent on the DL by Jordan Schafer, Freedie Freeman, Reed Johnson and now Jason Heyward, the Braves have continued to win.

Finally, despite the lack of production by the Braves’ two highest paid players in BJ Upton and Dan Uggla have still won to the point they lead all of Major League Baseball with the best record.

So Braves fans, as we continue to ride the wave of success the Braves have had this season, it is with great trepidation we await the final games of September and hoped for momentum to go all the way to the World Series.

(Remember those days?)

~ Gil ~

122: To Be or Not To Be BMac

by VOR

 

I heard a pretty extensive discussion about Mac just yesterday. Good points were made.

First, this is Mac’s last deal. This is the one that sets him and his offspring up for life. There will be more than one AL team willing to offer Mac six years given their ability to have him DH occasionally now and extensively later. The Braves cannot offer that.

Second, the Braves will most certainly offer him a qualifying deal. In fact they’d be ecstatic if he’d take it. But he won’t. And the Braves will pick up a high draft pick. For all those who scream “you can’t just let him walk at the end of the year for nothing”, the Braves do get something, and it is something of worth. How do the Braves keep it going? By building through the farm system. How do you guarantee success through the draft? You can’t… but you do give yourself a lot better chance of hitting on a top prospect if you have more draftees. Draft picks matter.

Evan Gattis

Third, the sad fact is that money does matter. The Braves could afford to give Mac the payday he deserves, but at what cost? If you pay Mac, who do you not pay? Gotta extend JHey. Gotta extend Freeman. Gotta start thinking about Minor. And if you give Mac the years and money he’s gonna get from Texas or Boston or New York, then you end up like he Phillies with aging players eating up your payroll and spending more time on the DL. Utely is still bothered by the knee and half the player he was. Lee’s missing his next start because of his neck. Ruiz has had a couple of stints on the DL this season with his knees. Howard… remember Howard? Highest paid and least seen. Halladay? Well, you get the picture.

Look, I love Mac. He is the soul of this team this year. But I want what’s best for the Braves, not the Brave. How blessed is this team to have Gattis already performing, Laird on the bench and Bethancourt as a prospect? Many teams can’t even start a guy as good as the guy we have in AA. The Braves have been built to sustain success by moving young talent in and moving older talent out. It is the recipe for long term success. And Mac will look good in Ranger blue.

~ Voice of Reason Raisins

120: Well, two weeks down, thirty three to go.