By Kenny Sirmans
Last night’s trade season kickoff has been aptly called a “Bummer of a deal” as the Braves traded 5 players for to the ChiSox LHRP Aaron Bummer. How does that work for our Braves?
First, let’s look at what we’re sending. God bless, Michael Soroka. I pray that he can get and stay healthy and show some of that great potential we all saw when we thought he was going to be the ace of our staff for years down the road. It solidifies the notion that you just never know with pitchers. Jared Shuster had likely reached his ceiling with the Braves and needs some new eyes on him to make a break through. He was not going to crack the rotation here, but maybe he can in Chicago. Neither of those guys was going to be in our rotation this year, even with the obvious openings we still have. Including Braden Shewmake doesn’t surprise me so much, but giving up Nicky Lopez does a little. Still, Lopez was about to make more through arbitration (estimated at $4M) than our starter will be earning on the 2nd year of his 3-year deal ($2M). Bad optics yes, but also bad economics. Shewmake had slid all the way to #15 in the organization’s prospect rankings, so it was time to cut the cord while there was something left to trade. And check out the name Keshawn Ogans and what he did in this year’s AFL. He’s a fast riser and probably the new SS on the horizon in the minors. As for throw-in lower level prospect Riley Gowens..? No idea. He had not cracked the team’s top 25 and was probably just sweetener to get the deal across the finish line.
The Braves had to make contract decisions on 3rd-year arb-eligible Soroka and Lopez by today, thus the timing of last night’s deal. Plus, the seemingly lopsided trade cleared out 4 spots from the previously full 40-man roster, which was absolutely part of the motivation from the Braves standpoint. You gotta have roster flexibility to sign FA’s and the Braves had to create some. With the addition of Aaron Bummer, the roster now sits at 37 and AA can begin his shopping spree.
Now Bummer…
Gil, you mention his analytics. I do not submerse myself in that world, so I can’t speak directly to it. But those who do, and have made comments about the trade, say that the Braves are getting a guy that can dominate if his “luck” is better. (For a bunch that worships hard measurables, they sure do talk about luck alot. But I digress…) And prior to last year, he was one of the better LH relievers in baseball. But last year was not his finest. His walk rate increased, which is never a good thing. That said, Bummer features a 95-mph sinker with heavy sink at an above average speed. He’s among the leaders in all of MLB in ground ball rate, and doesn’t give up very many HR’s. He relies on that sinker alot, but also throws a 95-mph 4-seamer with run, thus hitters can’t sit on either one. If that’s not enough from a reliever, he throws a nasty cutter that generates a ton of swing-and-miss. But wait, there’s more! He will also toss the occasional slider and change just to keep batters on their toes. In reality, under the right coaching, Bummer is a perfect fit for the Braves bullpen. Think Tyler Matzek with more ground balls.
So while on the surface it looks like AA gave up alot for a guy that needs a little tweaking to regain his dominance, there was actually some strategy involved. The Braves are allowing Soroka to move on to better opportunities, gaining trade value from Shuster before it fades, and clearing out some necessary roster space all while receiving a guy that has the potential to be a big part of a rebuilt bullpen. Makes prefect sense to me.
This trade reinforces the notion that Alex is going shopping for starting pitching on the FA and trade markets, although he has somewhat depleted his tradeable assets now. Does he need to add two pitchers to bolster the major league rotation and to rebuild the minor league pitching depth? AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep could battle for the #5 spot, with Alan Winans and Darius Vines also top options to come up to make spot or injury starts. Oh yeah, we can’t forget about the now healthy Huascar Ynoa either. Hmmm… maybe that pitching depth isn’t depleted after all. We could even toss Kolby Allard’s name in the mix somewhere, but I’m not convinced he’ll be around much longer either as he’s a non-tender candidate himself and occupies a valuable 40-man roster spot. Can’t forget those roster maneuverings. They’re a big part of it too. AA still has to fill the LF hole and the newly created utility void to go along with pitching, so roster spots are at a premium. I’m sure AA is exploring avenues we haven’t even considered… much like the Aaron Bummer deal. Never sleep on Alex. You never know where (or when) he’ll strike.
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